Cincinnati Reds: Anthony DeSclafani is solidifying his spot on 2020 roster

Anthony DeSclafani pitched a phenomenal game last night in Miami. The Cincinnati Reds right-hander is solidifying his spot on next year’s roster.

Entering the 2019 season, Anthony DeSclafani may have been the biggest question mark among the Cincinnati Reds starters. With Tyler Mahle nipping at his heels and young prospects like Vladimir Gutierrez showcasing their stuff, DeSclafani’s standing with the team was precarious at best. However, he’s shown great resilience and looks to be a lock for the 2020 squad.

DeSclafani went seven shutout-innings last night and only allowed two hits to the Miami Marlins. Disco nailed his ninth win of the season, tying a career-best. The right-hander struck out eight Miami batters and only walked one.

Now, I know several fans are going to point out that DeSclafani’s performance was against the hapless Miami Marlins. While that’s true, Cincinnati’s so-called ace, Luis Castillo, was touched up for five runs on seven hits against those same Marlins. Even Sonny Gray, one of the hottest pitchers in the league, gave up two runs and walked five on Monday night.

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The point is, regardless of who DeSclafani is facing, his performance has been greatly improved. While the home run ball has been a nemesis of DeSclafani all season, when the 29-year-old is able to keep the ball in the ballpark, good things happen.

DeSclafani has been dominant against right-handed hitters all season. His strikeout percentage is sitting at 27.1% while only walking 3.2% of right-handed batters. Disco’s FIP is an impressive 3.11 against righties and his xFIP is 3.01. Those numbers are more than enough to keep Anthony DeSclafani in the starting rotation next season. Now, if only he could figure out left-handed hitters.

Disco has struggled against lefties this season. All those positive numbers just cited get a little more skewed when you see DeSclafani’s performance against left-handed batters. While the strikeout percentage (21.4%) remains close, the BB% (11.4), FIP (6.19) and xFIP (5.89) seem to grow exponentially. DeSclafani has issues with left-handers.

But what do fans expect from Anthony DeSclafani? With Castillo, Gray and Trevor Bauer on next year’s roster, DeSclafani is a No. 4 starter at best. He currently owns a 4.05 ERA and has 139 strikeouts in 135.2 innings of work. That’s pretty darn good for a No. 4 starter.

For comparison sake, let’s look inside the division. Adam Wainwright, now the St. Louis Cardinals No. 4 starter is 9-9 with a 4.52 ERA over 135.1 innings of work. Oddly, Jon Lester has occupied the No. 4 spot in the rotation for the Chicago Cubs this season and has just 10 wins with a 4.49 ERA.

Jhoulys Chacin, who was Milwaukee’s Opening Day starter to begin the 2019 season, was 3-10 this season with a 5.79 ERA and was just released by the Brewers. The point being, DeSclafani’s numbers fall right in line with that of back-end starter.

Anthony DeSclafani will be entering his last season of team control this winter. Making $2.13M this season, Disco is likely to receive a bump and could probably see his salary at least double. Is it worth for the Cincinnati Reds to pay DeSclafani approximately $5M to be their No. 4 starter next season?

Who else are the Reds going to turn to? Re-signing Alex Wood will cost Cincinnati every bit of $10M. Even with his paltry performance so far this season, Wood is an established left-handed starter who will be sought after on the open market. Matt Harvey signed a one-year/$11M contract last season and Anibal Sanchez‘s deal was worth an AAV of $9.5M.

With Wood likely on his way out of Cincinnati at season’s end and the lack of depth in the Reds farm system, I don’t see anyway that the front office doesn’t re-sign Anthony DeSclafani. Disco will slot nicely as the No. 4 starter in the Cincinnati Reds rotation in 2020.