Cincinnati Reds: Nick Senzel takes his rookie tour to Philadelphia

As Nick Senzel and the Cincinnati Reds visit the City of Brotherly Love to battle the NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies, they will encounter a team that looks much different than the 2018 version.

Following a split in a rain-abbreviated series in St. Louis with the Cardinals the wheels of the Cincinnati Reds appear to be stuck in mud. Since May 1st the club has played .500 ball at 16-16, which isn’t awful, but on the heels of an 1-8 record to start the season, the Redlegs have to catch fire at some point in order to mount any sort of challenge in a highly competitive NL Central.

This weekend in Philadelphia presents yet another opportunity for the Cincinnati Reds (28-33) to emerge from the doldrums and provide some hope to an increasingly frustrated fanbase. The emergence of the pitching staff has been a wonderful surprise and well documented.  Nevertheless, if the Reds are going to start playing winning baseball the offense is going to have to be the catalyst.

Two Cincinnati Reds’ Opening Day starters have already lost their jobs dues to poor performances at the plate. José Peraza has been reduced to a utility role, while Scott Schebler is in Triple-A Louisville, having been replaced in center field by rookie Nick Senzel. Frankly, the leash should be getting shorter by the day for both Tucker Barnhart and Jesse Winker.

Right fielder Yasiel Puig has shown glimpses of what he’s capable of at the plate, but he’s been nowhere near the offensive presence the Reds envisioned he would be in the middle of the lineup. With so many struggling in the batters box, Cincinnati needed first baseman Joey Votto playing at a high level, which they haven’t received.

It’s June and the offensive numbers are not pretty. The Cincinnati Reds are below league average in almost every category and are dead last in doubles entering play on Thursday. Despite receiving unexpected production from both José Iglesias and Derek Dietrich, Reds’ manager David Bell has few options to fill out a respectable lineup card on a daily basis.

New faces in new places

If Reds’ fans feel bad about the baseball they’ve endured over the past 5 years, they are likely to receive little sympathy from Phillies’ fans. Entering 2019, the Philadelphia Phillies (35-27) have missed the playoffs for 7 consecutive seasons and have finished at least 10 games back in each year in that stretch.  In fact, the Phillies finished at least 23 games back in 5 straight seasons from 2013-2017.

Give the Phillies front office credit. Following a collapse in the second half of last year, the team has gone all in for 2019 and nothing short of the playoffs is going to be acceptable in the land of the Liberty Bell. Judging by the acquisitions the team has made since the end of the 2018 campaign, the front office has given Philadelphia easily their best team since the 2011 squad that captured the NL East.

Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, Jay Bruce along with the now-injured Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson have all made their debuts in Philly this season. The early results indicate October baseball may be returning to the City of Brotherly Love.

Despite all the new additions to a core consisting of Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco, the offense has been surprising underwhelming thus far. Entering play Thursday, Philadelphia ranked 12th in the senior circuit in home runs with 74 and their batting average of .245 is 11th in the league.

It must be the pitching that has the Phillies in first place, right? Well, not so fast. Philadelphia’s hurlers have been average at best and they’ve surrendered the most home runs (99) among all staffs in the NL. So exactly how are the Phillies in first place?

For starters, they’ve been dominant at home winning 20 of 31 games and they have taken care of business within the division. The Phillies have compiled an 8-2 record against the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins. Taking care of business at home and winning within the division is a recipe for success.

Previewing the pitching matchups

Tyler Mahle (2-5 4.26 ERA) opposes the Phillies’ Zach Elfin (5-5 3.02 ERA) in Friday night’s opener.  Mahle will be making his second career start against Philadelphia and let’s hope it goes better than the first. In that start, the right-hander lasted just 1 inning allowing 6 hits 3 runs including 2 homers.

The 24-year-old California native has been a different pitcher away from Great American Ball Park this season. Mahle is 0-5 with 4.96 ERA in 8 starts outside of Cincinnati. Hopefully, Citizens Bank Park is the locale where Mahle flips the script on that narrative.

Philadelphia right-hander Zach Elfin is making his first start since spending time on the 10-day IL due to back stiffness. A strong argument can be made that Elfin has been the Phillies best starter this season. Zach Elfin has already tossed two complete games this season. Pounding the strike zone has been the key to his success. In 65.2 IPs he’s fanned 51, while only allowing 14 walks.

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Saturday afternoon finds Tanner Roark (4-4 3.47 ERA) battling Philadelphia’s Nick Pivetta (3-1 6.14 ER). There will be no surprises when Roark toes the rubber. He’s faced the Phillies 22 times in his career and is 6-9 with 4.29 ERA in 20 starts.

Citizens Bank Park has been a house of horrors for the Cincinnati Reds’ right-hander. Tanner Roark is 3-6 with a 5.30 ERA allowing 64 hits in 56 innings. J.T. Realmuto has wore Roark out in their meetings. The Phillies All-Star catcher is hitting .448 in 28 career at-bats. Hopefully, Phils’ manager Gabe Kapler will give Realmuto Saturday off.

If there was a poster boy the for the “kill the win” crowd, Nick Pivetta’s face would be plastered all over the place. In his 6 starts, Pivetta has gone more than 5 innings just once. However, his last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers was his best by a wide margin. Throwing 6 shutout innings Pivetta allowed only 3 hits, while whiffing 9 without surrendering a walk.

Get your popcorn ready because Sunday afternoon is going to be a show. Sonny Gray (2-5 3.54) faces Phillies All-Star Aaron Nola (6-1 4.63 ERA). Sonny Gray has been nothing short of excellent over the last month. In his last 4 outings the right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA. Tossing 22 innings, Gray has only allowed 20 hits and fanned 27 opposing hitters.

Left-handed hitters have been completely neutralized by the Nashville native. Sonny Gray has limited lefties to a .175/.223/.233 slash line. To drive the point home, Gray has whiffed Bryce Harper 4 times in 7 career at-bats without allowing a hit.

Even though Aaron Nola hasn’t been as dominant in 2019 as he has in years passed, he’s still the man to beat in the Phillies rotation. Coming off a 2018 campaign in which he made his first All-Star team and placed third in the NL Cy Young balloting, expectations were sky high entering this season.

While racking up strikeouts at an impressive rate, control has been an issue for the right-hander. Walking 31 in 70 innings his 2.55 K/BB rate is by far the worst of his 5-year career. Nola has been great against the Reds, going 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 4 career starts. He’s also dominated Joey Votto, who is 0-11 lifetime against Nola.

Phillies infield is leading the way

First baseman Rhys Hoskins is doing damage. Smashing 13 homers and driving in 42 the right-handed slugger has been the most feared hitter in the Phillies’ lineup. Slashing .267/.390/.516 Hoskins has enjoyed the hitter-friendly dimensions of Citizens Bank Park.

Blasting 8 home runs and 7 doubles in front of the home fans, Rhys Hoskins has compiled a ridiculous 1.020 OPS at home. Hoskins eyes will surely light up when he sees Tanner Roark on the mound. In 15 career at-bats, he has 4 doubles and a home run against the Cincinnati Reds’ right-hander.

When the Seattle Mariners sent Jean Segura to the Phillies in December, I thought to myself, “What are the Mariners doing?” It’s June and I still don’t know what the Mariners are doing, but I do know Segura is hitting at a high clip as usual.

The two-time All-Star is slashing .292/.342/.448 in his first year in Philadelphia. Like most Phillies’ hitters, he’s a fan of Citizens Bank Park. Hitting .321 in front of a tough home crowd is the best way to make a positive first impression.

One of the more underrated players in the National League over the past several years is Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Over parts of 7 seasons in Philly, Hernandez has hit .277 with a .355 OBP. What’s more impressive is the 5’10”, 160-pound infielder has added a little power to his game.

Last year, Cesar Hernandez hit a career-high 15 home runs and this year he’s already added 6 round trippers. If the game is on line late look for Hernandez to be a difficult out. When facing Cincinnati Reds’ relievers Raisel Iglesias and David Hernandez he’s a combined 5-10 with 2 doubles. David Bell consider this your warning.