Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto’s hot bat looks to ground the Cardinals

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CINCINNATI, OH – JUNE 8: Jose Peraza #9 of the Cincinnati Reds throws to first base after forcing out Matt Carpenter #13 of the St. Louis Cardinals at second base in the seventh inning at Great American Ball Park on June 8, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /

A pivotal road trip for the Cincinnati Reds begins with a visit to St. Louis against the rival Cardinals. Can Joey Votto’s scorching hot bat stay lit?

Over the past week the Cincinnati Reds (27-32) could not get out of their own way. A perfect opportunity presented itself to finally crawl out of the NL Central cellar. Despite a return to form by Joey Votto last week, the Reds squandered multiple chances and once again face the challenge of escaping the division basement.

Four is a magic number for the Cincinnati Reds. When the team plates at least 4 runners, they are 22-10. However, when they score less than 4, they are a dismal 5-22. Statistically the Reds have the second best pitching staff in the National League. Unfortunately, they’ve played numerous low-run games, which they’re losing.

The Reds pitching staff has done everything possible to keep the club competitive. Entering play Monday they are first in the senior circuit in shutouts (7), home runs allowed (63), and strikeouts (572) while placing second in ERA (3.73). Perhaps the most positive sign for the staff is receiving production from both the rotation and the bullpen.

Cincinnati Reds’ starters have compiled a 3.70 ERA and are averaging 9.9 K’s per 9 innings. The bullpen has nearly matched those figures by contributing a 3.78 ERA and 9.7 K’s per 9 innings. Whether they are playing at home or on the road, the results have been the same.

Playing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, Reds’ hurlers have totaled a 3.82 ERA, while posting a 3.62 ERA away from the Queen City. The additions of Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark cannot be overstated, but the giant leaps forward by Luis Castillo and Amir Garrett have been essential to the pitching staff’s success.

ST LOUIS, MO – JUNE 02: Marcell Ozuna #23 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates after beating the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium on June 2, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

The Cardinals are walking and running to success

Following a three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs, the St. Louis Cardinals (30-28) find themselves in the middle of a competitive National League Central. The formula the Cardinals’ offense employs is simple, yet effective. Put the ball in play, get on base, and create pressure on the defense.

In a baseball world that seems to be dominated by the three true outcomes (strikeout, walk, and home run), the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be playing a different game than most. The Redbirds trail only the Los Angeles Dodgers when it comes to avoiding the strikeout. Not only do they put pressure on opponents by putting the ball in play, but the intensity heats up once they reach base.

While they’re not the Cardinals of the Whitey-ball era of the 1980s, the 2019 version of the Redbirds are swiping bases at nearly a league-leading rate. St. Louis’ 33 stolen bases trail only Central division rival Milwaukee in the National League. One of the reasons the Cardinals are running so much is because they are constantly on base.

Their .332 team OBP is good enough for third among NL squads. A contributing factor has been the Cardinals patience at the plate. Walking 212 times, the Cardinals are well above the league average of a 196 free passes. It’s a good thing the Cardinals occupy the bases because it takes maximum effort for them to score.

The Cardinals .414 slugging percentage is slightly below league average, but it’s been the absence of the long ball that has been most surprising. You would think a lineup that features Paul Goldschmidt, Jedd Gyorko, and Matt Carpenter would be sending shots toward the Arch on a nightly basis. However, their 74 homers ranks 11th in the league.

SAN DIEGO, CA – APRIL 20: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park April 20, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups

Luis Castillo (5-1 2.45 ERA) faces St. Louis rookie Genesis Cabrera (0-1 7.36 ERA) in Tuesday night’s opener. La Piedra makes his debut performance against the Cardinals in 2019 and based on past history, Castillo has found Busch Stadium to his liking. In 3 career starts, Castillo is 1-1 with 2.70 ERA with 16 strikeouts. A solid June will almost assuredly earn Castillo his first All-Star selection.

Cardinals’ southpaw Genesis Cabrera will be making just his second career starter. The 22-year-old Dominican made his debut last week against the Philadelphia Phillies lasting just 3.2 innings, Cabrera allowed 5 runs, 3 earned, on 5 hits, while walking 2 Phillies. On the bright side, Cabrera did strikeout 5 hitters and 34 of his 53 pitchers were thrown for strikes.

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Wednesday night’s contest has Anthony DeSclafani (2-2 4.97 ERA) opposing another Cardinals rookie Dakota Hudson (4-3 3.94). For Disco, the struggle is real and you don’t have to look hard to find the culprit. DeSclafani has to avoid the long ball. The 14 homers allowed in 2019 is tied for second most in the National League. Left-handers have been wiping the dance floor with Disco to the tune of .321/.392/.670 with 9 round trippers.

The 24-year-old Dakota Hudson has been effective over his past 5 starts. Going 2-1 with a 3.07 ERA Hudson has tossed 29.1 and allowed only 1 home run, but opponents have touched up the right-hander for 30 hits while earning 12 free passes. Hudson has also struggled putting batters away evidenced by the 16 strikeouts over those 5 starts. Look for Hudson’s luck to run out Wednesday night.

Thursday’s matinee series finale features Tyler Mahle (2-5 4.26 ERA) battling Cardinals’ veteran Miles Mikolas (4-5 4.41 ERA). Mahle has been a different pitcher away from home. In 8 starts on the road, the right-hander is 0-5 with 4.96 ERA. Like, Disco the long ball has been the issue away from GABP.

Surrendering 9 home runs in just 45.1 innings will not get the job done. Tyler Mahle also struggles against left-handers. With a slash line of .299/.342/.551 when facing lefties, it’s imperative Mahle treads carefully when facing Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong.

Right-hander Miles Mikolas is rounding back into form following an abysmal April. In May, Mikolas went 2-3 with 3.57 ERA in 6 outings. The 30-year-old has been enjoying some home cooking, in 7 starts, Mikolas has compiled a 2.87 ERA, while striking out 35 and only walking 7 opposing hitters. Although, left handers have presented trouble for Mikolas. Expect to see Derek Dietrich let it fly Thursday afternoon.

ST LOUIS, MO – APRIL 28: Jose Iglesias #4 of the Cincinnati Reds dives to tag out Dexter Fowler #25 of the St. Louis Cardinals who is back on second base during the eighth inning at Busch Stadium on April 28, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jeff Curry/Getty Images) /

Outfield leading the way for the Cardinals

It’s safe to say no player has drawn the ire of Cardinals fans as much as Dexter Fowler over the past 2-plus years. Nevertheless, the switch hitting outfielder has been turning those jeers to cheers thus far in 2019.

Slashing .253/.382/.784 with a 111 OPS+, Dexter Fowler is performing like the player the St. Louis front office envisioned when they signed him to a 5-year deal before the 2017 season. Reds’ manager David Bell would be wise to keep right-handers Jared Hughes and Michael Lorenzen on the sidelined when Fowler steps to the plate. The 33-year-old outfielder is hitting .400 against each of them with 2 homers off Mikey Biceps.

Marcell Ozuna did not have the type of season he or Cardinals fans had hoped in 2018, but the outfielder is doing his best to show off the skills that made him such a lethal weapon prior to St. Louis acquiring his services from the Miami Marlins following the 2017 campaign.

The 28-year-old free agent to be is mashing. He’s currently among NL leaders in home runs (16), RBIs (51), and runs scored (42). Never known for his speed, Ozuna’s four steals are just one off his career-high reached during his 2013 rookie year. It could be a long afternoon for Cincinnati Reds’ starter Tyler Mahle on Thursday.

In 6 career at-bats, Marcell Ozuna has 3 hits including a homer and 6 RBIs against the Reds right-hander. However, Michael Lorenzen has dominated Ozuna, retiring him 13 of the 15 times they have faced each other.

Cincinnati will miss notorious Reds killer Yadier Molina on the trip to the Gateway City. Molina was recently placed on the 10-day injured list with a right thumb tendon strain. Expect to see veteran Matt Wieters handling the catching duties in Yadi’s absence.

PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 06: Joey Votto #19 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates with Eugenio Suarez #7 after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on April 6, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

Joey Votto is proving the skeptics wrong…again

There’s been a small, but loud, contingent of Cincinnati Reds fans who seemed more than happy to write Joey Votto’s obituary as a Reds mainstay. Over the first six weeks of the season they continually shoveled more dirt on his perceived grave. I’m not saying I told you so, but Joey Votto is beginning to have the last laugh.

In his last 9 games, Joey Votto is hitting .410 with a .419 OBP. Having reached base in 17 consecutive games, he’s showing signs of the old Votto. Granted the power has not been there, but hitting second in the lineup in front of Eugenio Suárez and Derek Dietrich, the most important job he has at this point of his career is reaching base.

Speaking of the top of the order has anyone checked in on Nick Senzel lately? If not, you’re missing out. The 23-year-old rookie is slashing .288/.345/.481 in his last 12 games. In those contests, Senzel added 5 doubles, a triple, and a homer. Nick Senzel just keeps getting better every week.

Amir Garrett is proving that you can always count on AG. In 24.2 innings, the southpaw has fanned 37, while compiling a 1.82 ERA. The 27-year-old left-hander has been a nightmare for the Cardinals’ Matt Carpenter. In 13 career at-bats Carpenter has 1 hit and has whiffed 5 times.

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Prediction

As the Cincinnati Reds play the St. Louis Cardinals for the second time this season, expect things to go a little bit differently this time. After dropping 2-of-3 in April, look for the Reds to take the opener Tuesday and pull out another game in set. Two wins in St. Louis and no Yadier Molina is almost too good to be true.

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