Cincinnati Reds: Will the offensive onslaught against the Giants continue?

After dropping 2-of-3 in Oakland, the Cincinnati Reds travel across the Bay Bridge to battle the San Francisco Giants. Let’s hope the Reds can repeat their offensive explosion they ignited last weekend against Giants’ pitching.

Following their visit to the Oakland Coliseum, the Cincinnati Reds (16-22) haven’t won a series since taking 2-of-3 from the Atlanta Braves two weeks ago. As a result, the Reds have been unable to gain ground in the National League Central and emerge from the division’s basement.

The road has not been kind to the Reds in 2019. In spite of a sparkling  3.40 team ERA, entering play Thursday away from the Queen City, the Reds are an abysmal 7-14 in their road grays. Maybe they need to try a throwback uniform on the road as well. As hard as it is to imagine, the Cincinnati offense continues to plummet to new lows on the road.

Going into play Thursday, Cincinnati is slashing an embarrassing .187/.248/.319 away from Great American Ball Park. The biggest culprit is right fielder Yasiel Puig. His road numbers are beyond belief. Hitting an anemic .123 with only 3 extra base hits in 21 road games, The Wild Horse has yet to leave the stable.

Facing a less than imposing Oakland A’s pitching staff, the Cincinnati Reds offense managed to plate just seven runs in three games and fell victim to Mike Fiers‘ second career no-hitter. Hopefully the remedy for the offensive struggles will once again be the San Francisco Giants.

Despite lighting up Giants pitching for 37 runs just last week, the Cincinnati was only able to split a 4-game series with San Francisco. This weekend the setting shifts to Oracle Park which does not offer the cozy confines of GABP. Look for runs to be much harder to come by this weekend.

Through 16 home games, the San Francisco Giants (16-21) are averaging just 3.12 runs per contest, which is only better than the paltry Miami Marlins. Interestingly, the Cincinnati Reds 3.18 runs per road game is only better than, you guessed it, the Miami Marlins.

Even though the Giants are just 7-9 at Oracle Park their pitching staff have found the comforts of home more to their liking.  Compiling a team ERA of 3.88 Giants hurlers have been effective in keeping the traffic on the base paths to a minimum.  Sporting an excellent 1.163 WHIP and 3.49 strikeout to walk ratio the Giants are making the opposition earn every run they get.

Previewing the pitching matchups

Friday is La Piedra Day for Cincinnati Reds fans as Luis Castillo (3-1 1.97 ERA) opposes the Giants’ Dereck Rodriguez (3-4 5.75 ERA). Castillo, the April National League Pitcher of the Month, is seeking some payback against San Francisco.

After being staked to a 4-0 lead and cruising through five no-hit innings on Sunday against the Giants, Reds’ killer Buster Posey crushed a three-run homer tying the game in the sixth inning. Nevertheless, Castillo ranks in the Top 5 among NL pitchers in innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.

Dereck Rodriguez had a less than stellar performance against the Reds last week. Allowing 4 homers and 8 runs in just 5 innings of work, the right-hander hopes the dimensions of Oracle Park will keep those fly balls in the yard.

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The 26-year-old right-hander and son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez, has been awful in his last 2 starts. Rodriguez allowed 14 runs in 8 innings. This is a game the Cincinnati Reds should win easily.

Saturday night finds Anthony DeScalfani (2-1 3.65 ERA) battling The Shark, Jeff Samardzija (2-1 3.16 ERA). Disco was very good, save one pitch, in his start Monday versus San Francisco.  Surrendering 4 runs in 6 innings, only a 3-run dinger from Pablo Sandoval spoiled an otherwise excellent outing for the Reds’ right-hander.

Jeff Samardzija had one of the strangest starts of his career Sunday in Cincinnati. The first four batters of the game for the Reds all scored, including three consecutive home runs on as many pitches. From that point, Samardzija allowed only one base hit while working 5 innings. Look for this one to be a pitchers duel.

The series finale features Tyler Mahle (0-5 3.69 ERA) and long time Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner (2-4 3.99 ERA). When the Reds’ offense was launching long balls to all corners of GABP last weekend, the only member of the team’s rotation not to make a start was of course Tyler Mahle.

In Mahle’s 7 starts this season, the Reds have scored a total of 8 runs and have been shutout 3 times including his last two starts. The 24-year-old right-hander was excellent in his start against the A’s on Tuesday. Working 6 innings, Mahle allowed only 1 run on 3 hits, while fanning 8 batters.  Of course, the Reds couldn’t even muster a hit against Mike Fiers and the right-hander was the hard luck loser again.

He may not be the Mad Bum of old, but Madison Bumgarner is never going to an easy matchup. Injuries have derailed the southpaw the past two seasons. Bumgarner has taken the ball every fifth day to open the 2019 campaign. Amazingly, still only 29-years-old, the left-hander is 3-5 with a 4.21 ERA in his career against the Cincinnati Reds.

Recent meltdowns by the bullpen are cause for concern

The Cincinnati Reds pitching staff has been better than anyone could have imagined to begin the 2019 season. However, there have been a few dents in the armor as of late. Over the past 10 days, Robert Stephenson, Wandy Peralta and Raisel Iglesias have left Reds fans covering their eyes.

Right-hander Robert Stephenson was virtually unhittable in April. However, the turn of the calendar to May has not been as kind. In 2.2 innings of work, Bob Steve has surrendered 2 home runs. His gopher ball to the A’s Stephen Piscotty leading off the bottom of the 13th was the deciding factor in Wednesday’s 5-4 loss in Oakland.

Like Robert Stephenson, southpaw Wandy Peralta was sensational during the first month of 2019. However, just like Bob Steve, May has greeted Peralta rudely. Covering 3 innings, Peralta has allowed 4 runs including a homer and 2 doubles. His slash line of .429/.400/.714 for May is providing no relief to Reds fans.

Closer Raisel Iglesias made headlines earlier this week when he expressed his displeasure to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer about entering games in non-save situations. If anyone should be complaining, it’s Reds manager David Bell.

Iggy has been awful this season. He’s already suffered 5 losses, which is as many as he had in all of 2018. Keeping the ball in the ballpark has been a struggle. The right-hander has already allowed 4 homers and his 2.04 home run per 9 innings rate must improve immediately. In addition, Iggy’s ground ball rate 22.5% is a career low.

What could be the cause of Iglesias’ issues? First of all, his 2019 slider is not the slider he has possessed in years past. This year his average velocity of 83.7 mph on the slider is down significantly from the 85.5 average of 2018.  Also, when Iglesias is getting hit, he’s getting hit hard.

According to Fangraphs, when opponents put the ball in play against Raisel Iglesias, they are pulling the ball 48.8% of the time in 2019. For comparison’s sake, his career pull percentage rate is 40.7%.

Equally concerning is the type of contact Iggy is allowing. For his career, Raisel Iglesias has a hard hit rate of 27.9%, however this year that number has skyrocketed to 48.8%. It’s obvious that pitching coach Derek Johnson has his first crisis to contend with in Cincinnati.

Prediction

The Reds struggle to score on the road and the Giants struggle to score at home. While Reds fans can talk Pythagorean records and run differential all day long to make themselves feel better, the bottom line is this team needs to start winning some series.

The road to wellness begins this weekend in San Francisco. With Castillo, DeScalfani, and Mahle all toeing the rubber, the Reds are setup well to have a successful series at Oracle Park. I’m thinking the Reds take 2 of 3 from the Giants over this Mother’s Day weekend.