Tanner Roark and the Cincinnati Reds starters look to dominate the Mets

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SAN DIEGO, CA – APRIL 20: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park April 20, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

The pitching rich Cincinnati Reds visit Citi Field to battle rookie sensation Pete Alonso and a struggling New York Mets pitching staff in a 4-game set.

The Cincinnati Reds (11-16) suffered a setback over the weekend in a battle of NL Central Division contenders dropping 2-of-3 to the first place St. Louis Cardinals. Despite residing in the basement of the division, the Reds are winners in 6 of their last 10 contests and are playing much better baseball as of late.

Per usual in the 2019 season, it’s been the Reds dominating pitching that has changed the fortunes of the club. Cincinnati hurlers lead NL pitching staffs in ERA and have allowed the fewest runs in the league. The team has received outstanding performances from both the starting rotation and the bullpen.

New additions Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark have certainly made positive contributions to the Reds, but it’s been the emergence of Luis Castillo, Robert Stephenson, and Amir Garrett that have been difference makers.

All three have been the best versions of themselves in the early going. Experience is undoubtedly a factor in their success, but you can’t overlook the impact new pitching coach Derek Johnson has had on the staff.

While the pitching has carried the club, the bats are showing signs of awakening from their slumber. A more patient approach at the plate is paying dividends for the team. In the last week, Reds hitters have drawn 25 free passes.

The Reds’ patience has not only raised pitch counts for opposing pitchers, but it’s allowed the club to get into opposing bullpens earlier in games. Over the past week, only two opposing starters have managed to throw 6 full innings against the Cincinnati Reds.

The host New York Mets (14-13) ended a 3-game skid by taking the finale in a weekend series with Milwaukee Brewers. Currently, the New Yorkers are sitting in second place in NL East behind the Philadelphia Phillies.

However, don’t let the second place position fool you. Pitching and catching have been a struggle for the Mets. Not only have New York pitchers’ kept the basepaths busy, the team has committed the most errors among anyone in Major League Baseball.

New York’s pitching staff has been the worst in the NL. Both the rotation and the bullpen share equal parts of the blame. The starters and relievers have ERA’s north of 5.00. Mets pitchers have allowed the most runs in the league as well as allowing the highest opponent batting average. Each scheduled starter the Mets trot out to the mound against the Reds will have an ERA no better than 4.85.

The bat rack has been kinder to the Metropolitans. The club is currently 5th in both batting average (.260) and on-base percentage (.344). However, the Mets’ offense suffered a potential major blow on Sunday when second baseman Robinson Cano had to the leave the game after being hit on the left hand by a fastball from Brewers’ pitcher Gio Gonzalez.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – MARCH 28: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the first inning of the game on Opening Day between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on March 28, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Bobby Ellis/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups

In Monday’s series opener, Tanner Roark (1-1 3.24 ERA) takes the mound for the Cincinnati Reds against right-hander Zack Wheeler (2-2 4.85 ERA). Roark and the Mets are no strangers to one another. The former Washington Nationals hurler has had his way when facing the New Yorkers.

In his career, the 32-year-old righty has compiled an 8-4 record with a 3.07 ERA in 16 starts against the Mets. Citi Field has been welcoming to Tanner Roark over the years. He has authored a 2.73 ERA in 9 starts in the Big Apple. Outfielder Michael Conforto can attest to Roark’s dominance. In 23 at-bats the left-handed hitting Conforto is slashing a measly .174/.296/.391.

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Reds ace Luis Castillo (3-1 1.23 ERA) opposes southpaw Jason Vargas (1-1 7.20 ERA) Tuesday night. In only 6 starts on the season, Castillo has accumulated a 2.0 bWAR. The 26-year-old Dominican will be making his Citi Field debut.

The 36-year-old Vargas will be making his 5th career start vs. Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Reds have treated Vargas rudely in the past. The 13-year veteran is 1-2 with a horrific 7.98 ERA. Game two of this series, Castillo vs. Vargas, is a game the Reds have to win.

Wednesday night the Reds will face reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom (2-3 4.85 ERA). This will be deGrom’s second start following a stint on the 10-day IL due to a sore elbow. His first start against the Milwaukee Brewers did not go well.

In that game, Jacob deGrom allowed 5 hits and 5 runs over 4 innings of work, while walking 3 and fanning 7 Brewers. Lifetime he’s 2-1 with 2.25 ERA in 4 career starts against the Reds. In those 4 starts, he’s struck out 34 Reds in only 24 innings.

The Reds will counter with Anthony DeSclafani (1-1 4.26 ERA) on Wednesday night. Disco has been excellent in his past 2 starts. In 12 innings the right-hander has allowed 1 run, 6 hits and has whiffed 12 batters.

DeSclafani is looking for his first career win against the Mets. In 4 games, 3 as a starter, he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA. Let’s hope the spirit of Studio 54 engulfs New York Wednesday night and Disco dances his way to a victory.

Wrapping up the Reds stay in New York on Thursday, the Mets look to drop the hammer on the Reds by sending Noah Syndergaard (1-3 6.35 ERA) against Tyler Mahle (0-3 4.50 ERA). Thor is seeking to avenge some recent awful performances. In his past 3 starts, Syndergaard has allowed a whopping 27 hits and 14 runs in 15 innings. However, his counterpart hasn’t been much better.

Tyler Mahle, in his past 3 starts, is 0-3 with a 6.88 ERA. The 24-year-old right-hander has thrown strikes, but has been susceptible to the big inning. Mahle has allowed 3 home runs and 25 hits in his past 17 innings of work. Following the recent setback of Alex Wood as he battles back issues, it’s important for the Reds and Mahle that he becomes a reliable option in the rotation.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 28: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets hits a triple to left field during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citi Field on April 28, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images) /

Alonso and McNeil are wreaking havoc

As a result of the Mets unexpectedly poor pitching performance to begin the season, the team has had to rely on the offense of their young players and they’ve delivered. The right and left-handed hitting combo of first baseman Pete Alonso and left fielder Jeff McNeil are leading the way.

Pete Alonso the 24-year old right-handed hitting first baseman has placed himself firmly at the top of the Rookie of the Year race. Slashing .306/.398/.867 with 9 home runs and 24 RBIs, the rookie has been everything Mets fans hoped he would be.

Having already accumulated a bWAR of 1.7, Alonso has feasted off left-handed pitching. In only 27 at-bats against southpaws he’s crushed 4 home runs and is slugging 1.043. Don’t anticipate seeing the Reds left-handed bullpen triumvirate of Amir Garrett, Wandy Peralta and Zach Duke going anywhere near the mound with Alonso in the batters box.

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Since joining the Mets last year, all Jeff McNeil has done is hit. McNeil’s an easy guy to root for. A former 12th round draft pick, McNeil did not make his major league debut until age 26. This year he is hitting .355 with a .434 on-base percentage.

Amazingly, McNeil has also feasted on left-handed pitching this year. Heading into play Sunday, in 15 at-bats, he’s collected 8 hits. Reds manager David Bell should think twice before bringing in a lefty to face O’Neil.

While the starting rotation has struggled, new Mets closer Edwin Diaz has been living up to expectations. Acquired in an off-season trade with the Seattle Mariners, the right-hander has saved 7 games and fanned 20 in only 10.2 innings.

Those are peak Aroldis Chapman-like numbers. The Cincinnati Reds have never faced Diaz who throws a 97-MPH heater and 89-MPH slider. If the Mets have the lead headed to the 9th, the Reds will face a monumental task.

SAN DIEGO, CA – APRIL 18: Tanner Roark #35 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park April 18, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Reds’ pitchers look to continue leading the arms race

As the Cincinnati Reds close out another frustrating April, it’s easy to focus on the struggle to score runs. Nevertheless, it’s been an amazing run for the team’s pitching staff. Let’s take a look at those arms who have kept the team within striking distance of contention.

First and foremost, we must discuss Luis Castillo. The days he is scheduled to pitch are quickly becoming can’t miss TV appointments for Reds fans. La Piedra is leading NL pitchers in WAR (2.0) and ERA (1.23). He ranks 3rd in strikeouts (43) and 5th in WHIP (0.95). Mets hitters will see first hand Tuesday night what all the hype is about.

If ever there was a pitcher for the “kill the win” campaign it would be Sonny Gray. The Reds’ right-hander went winless in April and I couldn’t care less. Gray is averaging 11.3 strikeouts and only allowing 2.2 walks per 9 innings.

If Sonny Gray maintains this pace, he would set career-highs in both categories. Add in a WHIP of (0.97) and a ground ball rate of 54.1%, and Gray is developing into the perfect No. 2 starter behind Luis Castillo.

Tanner Roark may be the Reds No. 3 starter, but don’t let that fool you. When the Reds acquired Roark they were hoping to get a starter who could eat innings and keep the club in ballgames. He’s been that and more.

Roark has posted an excellent 3.24 ERA in addition to an 8.6 strikeout per 9 innings rate, which is currently on pace for a career-best. He’s been most impressive in high leverage situations. In 23 at-bats, Tanner Roark has limited the opposition to 3 hits and zero extra base hits.

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Prediction

The Mets can’t pitch and the Reds can’t hit. However, I’m betting the Reds offense can manage to squeeze out a few runs in the Big Apple. They say New York is the city that never sleeps and neither does the Reds pitching. Look for the Reds to take 3-of-4 from the Mets and begin the month of May with nothing but flowers.

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