Cincinnati Reds: Who will lead the team in home runs this season?

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MIAMI, FL – JULY 09: Nick Senzel #13 of the Cincinnati Reds and the U.S. Team hits an RBI double in the first inning against the World Team during the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at Marlins Park on July 9, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

The Cincinnati Reds brought in some extra pieces and are loaded with offensive talent. Who will lead the team in home runs during the 2019 season?

The Cincinnati Reds have no shortage of offensive power for the upcoming season. The Reds smacked 172 homers last season, falling just below the National League average of 179. The Los Angeles Dodgers led the NL last season with 235 roundtrippers. However, 44 of those homers from last year’s NL Championship team now reside in Cincinnati.

Yasiel Puig (23) and Matt Kemp (21) are now with the Cincinnati Reds and will look to invigorate an already potent offense. Eugenio Suárez led the Reds in homers last season with 34. Scooter Gennett added 23 long balls, and surprisingly, Scott Schebler was third on the team with 17 home runs last year.

But, that was then and this is now. Had Kemp and Puig had the same production last year on the Reds rather than Dodgers, Cincinnati would’ve trailed Los Angeles by just 19 homers. Let’s take a look at which fire players are most likely to lead the Cincinnati Reds in home runs next season and predict how many each player will hit.

5. Nick Senzel

In a prediction surely to go wrong, I think Nick Senzel will finish in the Top 5 among the Reds in home runs during the 2019 season. Senzel is not a pure power hitter, in fact, he hits more for average. However, with his advanced approach at the plate, lack of film for pitchers to dissect, combined with the Reds management giving him every chance to win the starting job in center field, I think Senzel is going to have a lot of chances to make contact.

David Bell on his first impressions of Nick Senzel in CF: "This is more than possible"
— C. Trent Rosecrans (@ctrent) February 14, 2019

I know, I’ve been really touting the potential of the Reds No. 1 prospect, but the 23-year-old really looks the part. Whether or not he starts the season with the Reds or at Triple-A Louisville is irrelevant. Senzel will be part of the Cincinnati roster by the end of April at the very latest provided he’s healthy.

The Cincinnati Reds lineup is just another reason that Senzel will find success at the dish in 2019. When Senzel gets regular reps in center field, which he’s very likely to receive, I can see manager David Bell slotting him in the No. 2 hole, behind Jesse Winker and ahead of Joey Votto. He’s going to see some pitches.

Winker’s .405 on-base percentage should not come as a surprise. His OBP in Louisville during his 2017 season in Triple-A was .395, and the year before it was .402. Winker will get on base and Joey Votto is one of the craftiest hitters in the game. If Senzel is positioned between those two in the lineup, he’s going to see a lot of pitches he can hit.

If Nick Senzel starts the season at Triple-A Louisville, so be it. It’s a business-savvy move by the Reds and the team is more than capable of holding down the fort for two weeks in center field. Both Scott Schebler and Phillip Ervin are able to play center field until Senzel is called up. Those two weeks still don’t affect my prediction.

Predicting Nick Senzel’s home run total in 2019: 18 HRs

SAN DIEGO, CA – JUNE 3: Scooter Gennett #3 of the Cincinnati Reds is congratulated by Billy Hatcher #22 of the Cincinnati Reds after hitting a solo home run during the eighth inning of a baseball game at PETCO Park on June 3, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

4. Scooter Gennett

Though no long-term deal has been agreed to as of yet, Scooter Gennett will still be part of the Cincinnati Reds in 2019. If the last two years have shown us anything, it’s that you better not count out the Cincinnati-native. Gennett will definitely be among the team leaders in home runs next season.

The 29-year-old Gennett was hoping for a long-term extension with his hometown ball club, but that has yet to materialize and it may not until the offseason, if ever. That may just add more fuel to Gennett’s fire, who’s been among the best power hitters on the team over the last two years.

When Scooter Gennett came to the Reds after being waived by the Milwaukee Brewers, I don’t think very many fans expected what they saw. After four years in Milwaukee saw Gennett hit a combined 35 homers in 1,526 at-bats, the Reds’ slugger sent a career-high 27 out of park in 461 at-bats during his first season in the Queen City.

Last year, Gennett’s power numbers dipped a little bit, as his home runs fell from 27 to 23 and his slugging percentage dropped from .531 to .490. With the dip in power, combined with top prospect Nick Senzel nipping at his heels, it’s not terribly surprising that the Reds passed for now on extending Gennett long term.

I think we’ll see a slight dip once again in Gennett’s power numbers, but nothing too extreme. Gennett is not just a home run hitter, as he was in the race for the NL batting title until the final two weeks of the season last year. Gennett can rake and will still be among the team leaders in homers next season.

Predicting Scooter Gennett’s home run total in 2019: 21 HRs

3. Joey Votto

There’s no way you can look at Joey Votto’s numbers from last season and not think to yourself, “Is this the beginning of the downturn for Votto?” I know, I’ve thought it too. But questioning Joey Votto is something I’m not willing to do just yet. I’m looking for a bounce back season from the perennial All-Star first baseman.

Votto slashed .284/.417/.419. His .417 on-base percentage led the National League for the third straight year and was the seventh time in the last nine seasons Votto’s done that. The guy knows the strike zone, as he led the league in walks in five of those same nine seasons.

But what about the power? Fans of the Cincinnati Reds are used to Votto routinely sending 20-plus balls out of the park. Heck, in 2017, we saw 36 big flies from Joey. The power is there, it just wasn’t on display last season. Votto only had 12 homers in 2018.

Joey Votto has always worked so hard at his craft, which is why it was so difficult to watch him struggle last season. Some of those struggles, however, can be attributed to his health. Votto played a few games he shouldn’t have after being plunked by Ryan Madson and was never the same once he returned from the DL. Votto talked about his struggles during RedsFest via MLB.com:

“Last year, I felt so out of sync with my game. I’ve said it before, but I felt a step behind all year. Normally, I feel a step ahead every day all year. So I’m doing everything I can to make sure I am prepared both physically and mentally. I am making sure I am completely ready for this coming year.”

You can bet against Joey Votto if you want, but I’m not about to. Having seem additional bats in the lineup will help force pitchers to throw to him as well. Votto’s speed on the base paths doesn’t strike fear into opposing pitchers. But, if Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Suárez, and Scooter Gennett are hitting behind him, you really don’t want to put Votto on base. That could turn into a lot of runs very quickly.

Predicting Joey Votto’s home run total in 2019: 24 HRs

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 27: Yasiel Puig #66 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a three-run home run in the sixth inning of Game Four of the 2018 World Series against pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez #57 of the Boston Red Sox (not in photo) at Dodger Stadium on October 27, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

2. Yasiel Puig

If you’re not excited about Yasiel Puig in a Reds uniform next season, I don’t know what to say to you. This guy has made baseball fun in Cincinnati again and he hasn’t even taken the field. So, the question now becomes, can Yasiel Puig live up to all the hype? I’m here to tell you that he can.

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Puig was traded from Los Angeles not because of his antics, which can be a bit questionable at times, but more because of his value to the team. The Dodgers organization is loaded with talented outfielders and obviously the Dodgers felt comfortable moving on from their former All-Star.

Puig has never recaptured that same success he had in his first two seasons that made him a household name and fan favorite in LA. In his first two big league seasons, Puig slashed .305/.386/.502 with 35 home runs and 111 RBIs. In the four seasons since, his combined batting average has dropped to .263 and his on-base percentage to .331.

Yasiel Puig is in his walk year, meaning he’ll be a free agent at the end of the season. This is a big year for Puig and a chance to show the other 29 teams, likely only 28 this offseason, that he’s worthy of a big contract. There’s an outside chance that the Cincinnati Reds could re-sign Puig in the offseason, but with the plethora of outfield talent on the roster and in the minor leagues, this looks like a one-year deal.

Puig has power, there’s no doubting that. With the short porch in Great American Ball Park, Puig may enjoy seeing a few big flies that would’ve been long fly ball outs to the warning track in Dodgers Stadium. It’ll be interesting to see what Yasiel Puig brings to the table in 2019, but it’ll, no doubt, be fun.

Predicting Yasiel Puig’s home run total in 2019: 33 HRs

PITTSBURGH, PA – JUNE 16: Eugenio Suarez #7 of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after hitting a solo home run in the second inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on June 16, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /

1. Eugenio Suárez

This is the year Reds fans. This is the year we’ll look back and realize that Eugenio Suárez became one of the best players in the game. Last year, Suárez finally got some recognition. In his fifth major league season, Suárez belted a career-high 34 homers with 104 RBIs. He led the team in both categories. This year, I look for Suárez to lead, not just the team, but the league in both categories.

Eugenio Suárez was the best offensive player on the Cincinnati Reds last season. While perhaps Scooter Gennett had more clutch hits, no one put together a better season at the plate for the Reds than Suárez. He slashed .283/.366/.526 with an OPS+ of 135 and a WAR of 4.2. Geno was selected to his first All-Star Game, a tough task in a league with Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant occupying the hot corner as well.

Suárez is going to love sitting in the middle of this year’s lineup. There’s not a single “easy out” on the roster. As I mentioned earlier, I expect Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel to clear the way for Joey Votto in the No. 3 hole. Where do Yasiel Puig, Scooter Gennett, and Suárez fit? Does it matter? All three are going to have opportunities for huge year’s offensively.

Suárez has such as pure and confident swing at the plate. I’d expect he or Puig to be plugged in the No. 4 spot, sandwiched between Votto and Gennett. Even if Geno dropped to No. 6 in the lineup, which I don’t expect, he’d likely have José Peraza hitting behind him in the No. 7 hole. Peraza put together a great season offensively himself in 2018, leading the NL in singles.

An improved roster, another year of experience, and a sound approach at the plate are all reasons why I expect a career-year from Eugenio Suárez. There’s no pressure on him. He’s already signed a long-term deal with the Cincinnati Reds and he’s ingratiated himself with the fan base.

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With Billy Hamilton now gone and Scooter Gennett’s future foggy, Reds fans will be looking to Suárez as a player that they can root for and cheer on for years to come. He’s got a vibrant personality that will have Reds Country at his back every time he steps to the plate. Suárez is primed for a huge season.

Predicting Eugenio Suárez’s home run total in 2019: 44 HRs

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