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Cincinnati Reds should not be tempted by James Paxton

By Drew Koch

BALTIMORE, MD - JUNE 26: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners pitches in the second inning during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 26, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - JUNE 26: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners pitches in the second inning during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 26, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /
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The Seattle Mariners are said to be shopping several of their talented assets, including James Paxton. However, the Cincinnati Reds should steer clear of bringing the lefty to town.

James Paxton is a very good starting pitcher. That being said, he doesn’t seem to be the right fit for the Cincinnati Reds. So, while the Seattle Mariners appear to be dangling their talented left-hander for the right deal, the Reds should not take the bait.

Everyone knows that the Reds are in hot pursuit of some new starters this offseason. We’ve heard every name from Patrick Corbin to Dallas Keuchel to J.A. Happ to Gio Gonzalez. This much we know, the Reds will not head into 2019 with the same rotation they had last season.

Now, rumor has it that the Seattle Mariners are looking to deal Paxton this offseason. Some talks have the Mariners entertaining the idea of a complete rebuild, but those conversations appear a bit premature as Seattle’s GM Jerry Dipoto called reports of a complete teardown “overdramatized”.

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    • With that said, dealing Paxton would not constitute a complete teardown and it does appear that Seattle’s former 4th round pick out of the University of Kentucky is a viable trade candidate. Paxton is coming off a season in which he went 11-9 with a 3.76 ERA and threw a no-hitter on May 8th against the Toronto Blue Jays.

    So, if the Cincinnati Reds, ripe with minor league talent, are so desperate to fix their starting rotation, why should they avoid such an impressive young left-hander coming off the best season of his career? Good question, let’s dive into that.

    First of all, while Paxton showed an increase in his strikeout rate, fanning 11.7 batters per 9 innings pitched, he also saw a huge uptick in the number of home runs he gave up. After allowing just 9 roundtrippers through 24 starts in 2017, Paxton gave up 23 home runs in 28 games last year.

    The 1.3 HR/9 is more than double the 0.6 HR/9 he had in 2017. We all know how easily balls fly out of Great American Ball Park. Do the Cincinnati Reds really need another pitcher prone to giving up the long ball? To put it perspective, Homer Bailey had a 1.8 HR/9 and half his starts are at GABP.

    Paxton is also only under team control for two more seasons. On top of that, he’s represented by super-agent Scott Boras, who we all know squeezes the maximum amount of dollars out of the club he’s negotiating with.

    So, a trade for Paxton would not only cost you up front with prospects the likes of Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell, Shed Long, or Tyler Stephenson, but it would also cost you in the long run. No team should make a run at Paxton with the idea of giving up a boatload of talented prospects for only two years.

    If a team trades for Paxton, they’re likely to sign him to an extension. Do the Reds really want to empty the cupboard for a player like Paxton who’s yet to make an All-Star Game and just turned 30-years-old?

    Next. Reds should pursue Kluber or Carrasco

    If the Cincinnati Reds were going to get a starter through a trade and give up the kind of talent necessary to land a player like Paxton, I think they should look towards a player who’s under team control for more than just two seasons and who has more credentials. While a trade for an ace should not be off the table this offseason, Paxton is not the player the Reds should target.

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