Cincinnati Reds: Sonny Gray should be a buy-low trade candidate

The Cincinnati Reds will be in the market for starting pitching this season, and it just so happens that the Yankees are shopping Sonny Gray.

The Cincinnati Reds obviously need to fix their starting pitching heading into the 2019 season. It just so happens that the New York Yankees have essentially put a former All-Star on the trade block. The Reds should explore a low-risk trade for Sonny Gray.

According to David Lennon of Newsday Sports, Brain Cashman and the New York Yankees are looking to trade the former first-round pick, Sonny Gray. Gray started 23 games this season in the Bronx and finished with a record of 11-9 and 4.90 ERA. Gray made $6.5 million in 2018 and in his final year of arbitration, he’s projected to take home $9.1 million.

Now, I know what you’re thinking, why in the world would the Reds trade an asset for a pitcher in his final year before free agency? On top of that, why would Cincinnati want to roll out $9.1 million for a pitcher who’s ERA over the last 3 seasons is hovering around 4.50?

That’s a valid question, but I’d counter with this. First, if it’s a trade, maybe there’s a chance the Yankees offset some of Gray’s salary. That’s happened time after time when ballclubs swap players. If the Yankees are as desperate as it appears to unload Gray, they may be willing to take on some of his 2019 salary.

Second, the Reds are going to have to overpay for a free agent pitcher to come to Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park is not a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Any pitcher who’s going to take a hit to his ERA is going to want some extra cash to offset the value that he may lose the next time free agency rolls around.

Finally, if you buy low on Gray, what’s the harm? I’m not advocating that the Cincinnati Reds ship Taylor Trammell or Tyler Stephenson to New York. Heck, I’d even be on the fence about sending Tanner Rainey or someone of his talent to the Yankees. Gray to the Reds should only happen if he comes to Cincinnati without sacrificing a Top 20 prospect.

So, while Gray’s 4.90 ERA this season might not “Wow” you, only two Reds pitchers (Luis Castillo and Matt Harvey) this season had a better ERA than him. Diving deeper into Gray’s stats we find that his home versus away performance is quite staggering.

At Yankee Stadium during the 2018 season, Gray was 4-4 with a 6.98 ERA. On the road, however, Gray finished with a record of 7-5 and a 3.17 ERA. He as better away from the Bronx in every statistical category and even threw 11 more innings on the road. Only 3 balls left the yard during his road starts versus 11 round-trippers allowed at home.

Maybe a change of scenery is all Sonny Gray needs to succeed in 2019. The Cincinnati Reds can’t be too choosy with their solutions to fix the starting rotation entering next year. If the Reds are able to buy low, they should take a flyer on Gray.