Cincinnati Reds: Phillip Ervin’s opportunity could push Billy Hamilton out

The Cincinnati Reds are making a commitment to play Phillip Ervin more often in the outfield. Will Ervin’s success lead to Billy Hamilton losing his starting spot in center field.

According to interim manager Jim Riggleman, the Cincinnati Reds are done with the outfield rotation and Phillip Ervin will get most of the playing time, along with Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler. If Ervin continues his hot hitting, is Hamilton’s future in doubt?

Going forward, it appears that the Reds are finally done rotating outfielders. Earlier this season, Schebler, Hamilton, Jesse Winker, and Adam Duvall were part of an outfield rotation. That went by the wayside after Winker’s season-ending injury and Duvall being traded to the Atlanta Braves.

For some odd reason, players like Mason Williams, Preston Tucker, and even second baseman Dilson Herrera were getting routine opportunities in the outfield. The season is lost, especially after this weekend’s debacle in Chicago, but certain players, like Ervin, should be getting more than their fair share of chances to prove themselves heading into 2019.

It looks like that will be the case going forward, however, Ervin’s play could have a direct impact on what the Reds do with Billy Hamilton this offseason. Here’s what Riggleman said before Sunday’s game via Cincinnati.com:

"“Ervin is going to get most of the playing time out there. We have (Preston) Tucker and (Mason) Williams who are doing a nice job for us but we’re going to get a long look at Phil.”"

Ervin won’t get much time in center field, and will likely play opposite Scott Schebler during most games. However, Ervin has the ability to play center, as does Schebler, and the Reds could look at replacing Hamilton with either outfielder heading into next season.

Jesse Winker, when he returns next season, is all but assured a starting spot in right field. The Cincinnati Reds like Schebler to take the other corner outfield spot in left, and most assume that Hamilton will occupy his normal spot in center field on Opening Day next year. While that may still be the case, this “long look” the club is taking with regards to Ervin could give them the option of moving on from Hamilton.

Let’s face it, Billy may be the best defensive center fielder in the game today, but he struggles at the plate and has his entire career. Ervin and Schebler are both better offensive options than Hamilton and they are serviceable outfielders. Simply put, their offense will create more runs than their defense allows.

Ervin is hitting an even .300 with a .362 on-base percentage, 4 home runs, and 22 RBIs. Hamilton, who’s played better of late, is hitting only .236. His OBP is .301. Hamilton has 3 homers, 27 RBIs, and 29 stolen bases.

To be fair, Hamilton’s played in 123 games this season, Ervin only 50. Projecting this year’s stats over a 162 game season, Hamilton would have 4 home runs, 36 RBIs, and 39 stolen bases. Ervin’s numbers would look much better, with 13 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 13 stolen bags. Ervin, nor anyone else for that matter, possesses Hamilton’s speed, but he does have much better power.

Yes, only Hamilton can turn doubles into triples and rob would be hitters of extra-base hits with his ability to track down line drives into the gap. But how many opportunities are the Reds missing by not having a runner on the base paths due to Hamilton’s ineptitude at the plate? How many more RBI opportunities would Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Scooter Gennett have if Ervin, not Hamilton were in the lineup?

Could you imagine a batting order of Schebler, Ervin, Votto, Gennett, Suarez, Winker, Jose Peraza, and Tucker Barnhart? If all those guys play up to their potential, the Reds would have an incredibly formidable lineup and one of the best top-to-bottom in the National League.

Realistically, I expect Hamilton and the Reds to work out a deal prior to next season and Billy will be manning center field when the Reds kick off the 2019 season on March 28th against the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, if Ervin closes the 2018 season with a nice surge, he may give the Cincinnati Reds a lot to think about this offseason.