Brewers vs. Reds: RHP Yovani Gallardo vs. LHP David Holmberg

As the season winds down, the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers meet for the last time in 2014, this time with a series victory on the line. The Brewers are yet to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but their massive miracle continues to appear a long shot.

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RHP – Yovani Gallardo – 8-10, 3.46 ERA, 187.1 IP, 1.27 WHIP, .256 OAV, 142 K

This season against the Reds:

May 3 (L) – 6 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 1 K

June 14 (ND) – 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K

July 6 (ND) – 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 3 K

September 13 (L) – 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K

Career against the Reds:

7-8, 4.12 ERA, 24 GS, 139.2 IP, 1.47 WHIP, 116 K, 13 HR allowed

Stats to know about Gallardo:

-He is on pace to have his best season ERA-wise in his entire career. This comes at a crucial time in his career, as unless the Brewers are willing to pick up a $13 million option on Gallardo for 2015, he will be hitting the market at age 29. Surely in for a huge payday somewhere, this may be the final game Gallardo ever pitches in a Milwaukee uniform.

-Unlike teammate Kyle Lohse who pitched on Wednesday evening, Gallardo has been unbearable at home, and exemplary on the road. In 2.2 innings of less work this season, Gallardo has allowed eight more home runs (14 at home, 6 on the road) at home, posted a much-higher ERA (4.39 at home, 2.56 on the road), and has seen his winning percentage sink (2-7 at home, 6-3 on the road).

-Gallardo’s last win came all the way back on August 16. His last six starts have resulted in three being quality, but none being victories.

-Strike one has made a major difference for Gallardo in 2014. In at-bats when he is trailing 1-0 in the count, he is yielding a .304 batting average and a .382 on-base percentage. But, when he gets ahead in the count 0-1, those same numbers dip down to .186 and .226, respectively.

Here is the lineup he will face this afternoon via the team’s Twitter account:

2B – Brandon Phillips (22-for-62, 3 2B’s, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB’s, 6 K’s)

1B – Brayan Pena (4-for-9, 2 RBI)

3B – Todd Frazier (11-for-29, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K’s)

RF – Jay Bruce (15-for-48, 3 2B’s, 2 HR’s, 11 RBI, 4 BB’s, 9 K’s)

LF – Ryan Ludwick (12-for-36, 2 2B’s, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 6 BB’s, 5 K’s)

CF – Yorman Rodriguez (yet to face Gallardo)

SS – Zack Cozart (9-for-35, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K’s)

C – Tucker Barnhart (yet to face Gallardo)

P – David Holmberg (0-for-1)

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LHP – David Holmberg – 1-2, 5.25 ERA, 24 IP, 1.63 WHIP, .264 OAV, 16 K

This season against the Brewers:

September 13 (W) – 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K

Career against the Brewers:

1-0, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 0.67 WHIP, 4 K, 1 HR allowed

Stats to know about Holmberg:

-His only Major League win of his career so far has come against these Brewers. His start 12 days ago was an impressive one in Milwaukee, where he avoided danger early on before settling in. On what should be a gorgeous weather day down at the ballpark, he will need to keep the ball down in the zone, or that one home run allowed total might be going in the wrong direction.

-It has been well documented that this season was not a good one at Triple-A Louisville for Holmberg, who would allow 119 hits in just over 92 innings pitched. His WHIP was at an astronomical 1.64, which for the AAA level is none to reassuring. Yet, if he can impressive in his final start of the season, he will almost assuredly earn himself a serious look come March for a potential shot in the starting rotation should the Reds move on from any of their current starters.

-Many of Holmberg’s stats have too small of a sample size to qualify for nearly anything relevant, but there is a question mark after he passes the 25-pitch mark. In his middle ground, the opponents’ batting average spikes all the way over .400, along with the OPS jumping to a staggering 1.393. If Holmberg is to survive past the first few innings, he will need to limit Milwaukee’s opportunity to go in for the kill.

Here is the lineup he will be facing this afternoon via the team’s Twitter account:

CF – Carlos Gomez (0-for-2, 1 K)

RF – Ryan Braun (0-for-2, 1 BB, 1 K)

C – Jonathan Lucroy (0-for-3)

3B – Aramis Ramirez (1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI)

LF – Khris Davis (0-for-3, 1 K)

2B – Rickie Weeks (0-for-2, 1 K)

1B – Jason Rogers (yet to face Holmberg)

SS – Jean Segura (yet to face Holmberg)

P – Yovani Gallardo (0-for-2)