Sometimes Numbers Do Lie


Abysmal. Dreadful. Appalling. Hard to watch. All these phrases can be used to describe the Reds offense at times this season. Sure the team ranks 1st in the National League with 447 runs scored but that does not tell the whole story. The old saying goes numbers don’t lie, but when you look at this Reds team the numbers to give off a false impression. Most fans of the Reds would find it hard to believe the team is still 1st in the league in scoring especially with how inept this offense has been recently. A closer look at the numbers shows there is a problem with this offense, and some type of spark needs to be lit under this team.

Personally I consider any game when a team scores 3 runs or less to be a bad offensive game. The best teams in the league average somewhere between 4 and 5 runs a game for the most part, so anytime the offense is only scoring 3 or fewer the chances of winning are very slim. Here is a month by month look at the Reds when they score 3 or fewer runs:

A whopping 38 games already this season when the offense has scored 3 or fewer runs. Not surprisingly the Reds winning percentage in those games is a miniscule .184.  That is 40% of the team’s total games played so far. Simply unacceptable. There are no signs of improvement coming as the team had 12 low scoring games in June and already the team is 0-7 in the month of July when scoring 3 or fewer runs.  It is clear something needs to be done. Dusty has tried nearly a hundred lineups this year, but it is clear some of the guys on this team are simply not producing runs when needed. Drew Stubbs is hitting a measly .200 with runners in scoring position. Jonny Gomes comes in at a whopping .177. These are not the only guys struggling, but just an example of how this team fails to produce more times than not.

A huge difference in this year’s team from last is the hitting with 2 outs and RISP. Last year they hit .269 in these situations. This year the average is down at .210 in the same scenarios. Another disappointing number is the team’s .189 average with the bases loaded. I can’t count how many times the team has failed to bust games open when they get the bases loaded then eventually allow the other team to crawl back into the game. The major league average for hitting with the bases juiced is .282 so the Reds are almost a full 100 points below the average. Hall of Fame broadcaster Marty Brennaman summed it up best tonight during the radio broadcast saying, “I’ll tell you one thing…something needs to be done to shake this team up…this team is grossly under performing”. Could not have said it better myself.

After falling again to the Pirates tonight by a score of 2-0 [which makes them 1-6 against Pittsburgh this season], the Reds are 4 games out of first and need to get things going ASAP. Cincinnati has not won back to back games in over a month. All year Dusty has been saying the team is “treading water”, but there comes a point in a race when the leader has to emerge. It’s getting closer to do or die time for this Redlegs team. The offense needs to start scoring runs.