Reds Top Prospects According to Baseball Prospectus


Just a while back, I “reviewed” the top Reds prospects lists according to Baseball America, The Hardball Times and Minor League Ball. Today, Baseball Prospectus shared their top 11 (and nine more).

Kevin Goldstein over at BP has a couple of differences compared to the other three.

I will bring back our little table and add BP’s top 10. I’ll put the list for Baseball Prospectus as the first list. That’s after the jump (Be careful).

As was the case when I first introduced out little table, there is disagreement at #8. BP has Francisco which, according to the others, is a bit low. Same may be said for Alonso. Baseball Prospectus has three differences within its top 10 in comparison to the others.

1. No Todd Frazier. Baseball Prospectus has him down at #15. Regarding Frazier:

"The former top prospect still doesn’t have a defensive home, and the bat has quieted down significantly."

Granted, Frazier didn’t post the batting average in 2010 as he had in the past, but I like (sort of) THT’s Matt Hagen’s take.

"Frazier’s power and speed continue to play and could aid him on his way to becoming an average outfielder. But his strikeout rate spiked to scary levels in 2010. Trend or learning experience?"

We hope to chalk it up to a learning experience. Frazier did start out a bit slow in 2010, but he did hit well after the All-Star break (.290/.384/.470). Those are splits were used to seeing from Frazier.

Even though Goldstein cites Frazier’s lack of a real position home as a negative, I view it the other way. That leaves Frazier’s options a little more open. His value increases. You could almost think of Frazier as being a little similar to Ben Zobrist. Nice average. Decent speed (Frazier may be just a tad slower afoot, but his SB% improved last season going 14 of 18). Decent pop.

2. Ismael Guillon is listed at #10. We chatted a bit about Guillon on the post I did regarding pitchers. A couple of things I want to add to that.

One, Guillon has already gone under the knife once (Tommy John surgery). Health concerns? Maybe not as much as in the past. We’ve seen plenty of pitchers that have had the procedure take that year or so off and come back to post very good seasons.

Second, Baseball America says Guillon’s changeup is the best in the system. Goldstein even says that this pitch could develop into a “plus-plus pitch on down the road”. And to repeat what I said just a little over a week ago. I stated that “his fastball is good and his changeup is better”. Goldstein reveals that he believes the fastball is Guillon’s best tool, but if that changeup continues to develop, that will be his #1 pitch.

But don’t look for him right away or even within the next couple of years. He may begin the season in Dayton.

3. Goldstein also has Zack Cozart among his top 10 at #7 while Baseball America has Cozart at #8. The other two do not have Cozart among its top 10. FYI, Minor League Ball has Cozart at #11. Hardball Times never considered Cozart for its top 10.

As with all of these lists, one thing will always be pervasive. Opinion.