2 Reds who'll excel under Terry Francona's hitting philosophy, and 2 who'll struggle

New Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona is already shaking things up. After ridding himself of most of the previous regime's coaching staff, Francona and Reds President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall have set their sights on a new hitting philosophy to go with the new hitting coaches, whoever they may be.

Given Great American Ball Park’s status as a launching pad for righties, the new liner-centric, hit-to-all-fields mindset will be a sea-change. Krall told The Athletic (subscription required), "We want hitters (to take) an approach of using the whole field, hit line drives and take good at-bats.”

That would seem to be a step in the right direction, but which Reds players will excel under the knew philophy and who might struggle?

These two Reds should excel under Terry Francona's hitting philosophy

Jonathan India, Reds infielder

Perhaps no hitter will benefit more from buying into the Reds new mindset than Jonathan India. Already a master at good at-bats – his 12.6% walk rate ranked second in the NL — India hits line drives more often than anyone else on the Reds. His problem is that he is predictable. Upwards of 80 percent of India’s batted balls are pulled or hit straight on, and when he does smack a liner to right, he doesn’t have enough power to land it for a hit, as evidenced by his spray charts.

In 2024, India had a negative disparity between his actual and expected statistics. In other words, he performed worse than he statistically should have. And while this can often be attributed to bad luck, it seems more likely that other teams are catching on to India’s tendencies.

Sure, all things being equal, a certain hit with a certain launch angle and exit velocity should be a hit, but if a player is repeatedly sending that same hit to the same spot every time, the rest of the league will adjust. India is right that it’s time to make a change. It’s just that the change needs to start with him.

Matt McLain, Reds infielder

When Krall described his ideal Reds hitter, he might as well have just said, Matt McLain. In 2023, the infielder hit line drives at a rate that would have landed him in the top 15 in the majors if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Unlike India, though, McLain knows how to hit to all fields with power. He missed all of 2024 with an injury, but it doesn’t seem like his skills have missed a beat, as he blasted a homer and a double in his Arizona Fall League debut.

Where McLain could make strides is in his patience at the plate. His 7.7% walk rate was the worst of the 2023 Reds. His 28.5% strikeout rate wasn’t quite as bad as Will Benson or Elly De La Cruz, but translating some of his Ks into productive at-bats would allow McLain to use his plus-speed on the base paths. Under Francona, McLain could very well join Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer in the 20-20 club in 2025.

Unlike India, McLain far exceeded his expected statistics during his rookie campaign. Over a full season, his high strikeouts and luck will even out, and he will need to adjust. Considering their opposite approaches at the plate, perhaps India and McLain could teach each other a few tricks. It wouldn’t be the first time McLain and India have helped each other out this offseason.

These two Reds could struggle under Terry Francona's hitting philosophy

Spencer Steer, Reds infielder/ outfielder

Despite breaking out in a big way in 2024, Spencer Steer remains an under-the-radar weapon in the Reds’ arsenal, and he may be a weapon that needs fine tuning in the new Francona regime. In many ways, Steer is the antithesis of this new batting approach. He loves to launch the ball high into the Cincinnati night sky, and with GABP’s status as a hitter-friendly park, fans love to see Steer loft the ball.

But Francona might not be so enthralled with this approach. Steer significantly favors fly balls, hitting them at a rate 4.4% higher than league average. He also hits more pop ups. This has resulted in him swinging under nearly 30% of his batted balls. When he swings under a pitch, Steer has an .083/.082/.156 line. Steer also has a low average exit velocity (88 mph), so when he does square up the ball, he doesn’t always pack much punch.

With this in mind, a repeat of Steer’s 20-homer season may be a fruitless endeavor. After all, if he played in the American League, he probably wouldn’t have eclipsed the mark in 2024 thanks to the unfriendly park factors everywhere except Guaranteed Rate Field. This type of homer-or-bust approach seems to be the exact type of baseball that the Reds wish to avoid. Cincinnati fans will have to wait and see whether Steer can adapt to the new marching order or if he’ll flounder under Francona.

Stuart Fairchild, Reds outfielder

Injuries have kept Stuart Fairchild from making a significant mark since joining the Reds in 2022, but he has played his part as a slick fielding fourth outfielder. His hitting, though, left much to be desired even before Francona took the helm. Fairchild closed the 2024 season on the injured list after posting a .286 on-base percentage, effectively taking his speed out of play. If the Reds are buying into this new philosophy, Fairchild could be on the outs.

Fairchild is, in essence, a combination of the worst tendencies of India, McLain, and Steer. He is a pure pull hitter, ripping balls to the left side in 47.6% of his career at-bats. He doesn’t have a particularly good eye at the plate, walking in just 7.3% of his plate appearances, and he strikes out too much for a speed threat, posting a 25.8% K rate. Like Steer, Fairchild gets under the ball; in 2024, nearly 45% of his batted balls were either fly balls or pop ups.

Fairchild’s saving grace has been his propensity for power and stolen base potential. He hits homers at a rate comparable to De La Cruz, and he had a 93% success rate on steals in 2024. Those areas, though, don’t seem to be priorities for Francona. Fairchild is a serviceable glove-first outfielder, but the new skipper could easily find someone more in line with his new team plan.

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