Reds Spring Training 2012: Roster Outlook

So pitchers and catchers are in Goodyear. With that will begin the countless number of articles and posts attempting to project what the 25-man roster will be. The Reds seemingly have the majority of the positions and pitching slots filled. There may be one or two spots up for grabs.

Can’t be more than two, can there?

Doesn’t seem like it, but you never know as the Reds discovered last season. Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Fred Lewis and Jose Arredondo all began 2011 on the disabled list. Bronson Arroyo was struck with an illness. Lewis is the only member of this list not in Reds camp this season, but the other four will play critical roles for the Reds in 2012.

Here’s the rundown of how this season’s 25-man could shake out…

Starter Positions Players (9): Joey Votto, 1B, Brandon Phillips, 2B, Scott Rolen, 3B, Zack Cozart, SS, Ryan Ludwick, LF, Drew Stubbs, CF, Jay Bruce, RF, Ryan Hanigan/Devin Mesoraco, C

There are three positions to look at here.

One is with Cozart at short. He is coming off of having Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm. The questions about Cozart will abound. That biggest question/concern might be can he hit big league pitching over a full season. Another might be his health after having the procedure. No question Cozart lit a fire under the fanbase during his short stint in 2011.

Second is left field. Will it be primarily Ludwick or will Chris Heisey get his fair share of swings? We all know how Reds manager Dusty Baker can work when it comes to veterans, and Ludwick fits that build. I don’t believe I’m going out on a limb in saying Ludwick will most likely get the starting nod. Knowing that you have Heisey on the bench should produce a sense of urgency with Ludwick. If Ludwick doesn’t perform, you have a “backup” that isn’t really a backup…if you ask a few fans.

The final place is at third. Scott Rolen is the key cog for 2012. If healthy, Rolen will play an extremely valuable role for the Reds potential success during the upcoming season. If not, we may see third base become a revolving door and that usually doesn’t translate well. Without Rolen in the lineup puts the Reds in a precarious situation.

Starting Rotation (5): Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey

The addition of Latos and Cueto provide the Reds with a good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. It’s after that things could become a little dicey. Well, maybe not Leake. He seems to have a firm grasp on things, too.

The most prominent is that of the #5 starter. Most have Bailey here for now. The conjecture will occur if/when Aroldis Chapman will be ready to join this list. If Chapman is truly ready during spring training, that has the potential to throw a wrench into things. If, as you voted, Chapman joins the staff after the All-Star break, that provides Walt and the guys some added time to consider another move or two.

But you simply cannot look past Arroyo either. If he re-discovers that lost velocity, that is critical. As I previously mentioned, he won’t be throwing in the mid to high 90’s, but I firmly belive that’s why he was batting practice for most of 2011.

Bullpen (7): Jose Arredondo, Bill Bray, Sam LeCure, Ryan Madson, Sean Marshall, Nick Masset, Logan Ondrusek

I believe the bullpen is set with these seven. I’m not sure if there would be any disagreement here. Well, Masset seemed to take the brunt of criticism last season. Could he be on thin ice?

If so, there are others that will have a say (Josh Judy, Andrew Brackman on a split contract, Jordan Smith…maybe).

Bench: Miguel Cairo, Juan Francisco, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Paul Janish, Wilson Valdez

This will be interesting. I have listed six names, but there will only be four spots available according to my rather questionable math skills.

Heisey and Cairo are givens. Heisey is the “other outfielder” and Cairo is that veteran influence. You could make a case for Frazier as he possesses the ability to play so many positions. Of all of the six listed, Francisco is the only lefty bat. That may be his saving grace, plus he did show a bit better defense at the end of 2012. And that could leave two for one spot: Paul Janish and Wilson Valdez.

In a round of polls, you suggested by your votes that Janish’s day as a Red may be numbered…by a 70-30 margin. If I take that under advisement, I have to believe that Valdez will snare the final spot.

Both can play 2B, 3B and SS. Valdez is better at the plate, but Janish is better in the field. And that might be the difference. What will Walt and Dusty prefer, the bat or the glove? Its not like Valdez is light years better at the plate. His career average is .243, 22 points higher than Janish’s .221. Wilson’s career dWAR is 1.6 compared to 2.4 for Janish. Janish holds an edge there. If it’s defense, it’s Janish. If it’s offense, it’s Valdez. It is that simple, but again, what’s your preference?

And oddly enough, both can pitch, but we hope that will never be used as a means to determine who stays and who goes.

There’s time to let this shake out for Walt and his staff.

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