Reds might be rescued by the very September schedule that should sink them

Miraculously, the Cincinnati Reds' playoff dreams are still alive. Though FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at less than 5%, the fact remains that the Reds are still clinging to hope with 19 games remaining until the 2025 regular season comes to a close.

The Reds were one base hit away from sweeping the New York Mets over the weekend and pulling to within two games of the final NL Wild Card spot, but instead sit four games back heading into play on Monday night against the San Diego Padres.

So much has been made of the Reds' September schedule, and rightly so. Terry Francona's bunch face a tough test over the final three weeks of the season, but will Cincinnati's upcoming schedule actually be easier than expected?

How the Brewers and Cubs play their cards could greatly impact the Reds' playoff chances

The Reds went 3-3 last week against two of the top teams in Major League Baseball. Cincinnati took 2-of-3 from the Mets, but were only able to register one win against the Toronto Blue Jays. Even with those two series now in the rearview mirror, Cincinnati still has the second-toughest strength of schedule with only the St. Louis Cardinals facing tougher opposition down the stretch.

The Reds tangle with the Padres, Athletics, and Cardinals on the road before returning home for three games against the Pittsburgh Pirates and four against the Chicago Cubs. Cincinnati then ends the season with a road trip to play the Milwaukee Brewers.

But how motivated will the Cubs and Brewers be at that point in the season? The Brewers have all but locked up the division and the No. 1 seed in the National League. The Cubs are 7½ back of the Brew Crew and hold a three-game lead over the Padres in the NL Wild Card race. Depending on the results, neither Milwaukee nor Chicago could have anything to play for during the final few days of the 2025 season.

In other words, rather than running out their best arms and stacked starting lineups, the Brewers and Cubs could turn their attention toward setting their postseason rotations and keeping their stars healthy. If this happens, the Reds could be in prime position to go on a run over the final few weeks of the season and sneak into the playoffs.

Just because a team isn't playing their stars doesn't mean it'll be a cake walk — sometimes hungry prospects and bench players looking to prove themselves are more dangerous than having the veterans on the field. But if this scenario plays out, Cincinnati could have an advantage in the coming days that they didn't see coming when the month began.

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