4 MLB Draft sleepers the Reds should consider before taking Seth Hernandez

The 2025 MLB Draft is just around the corner and it's time to start narrowing down the list players most likely to land with the Cincinnati Reds as the ninth overall pick. The College World Series is underway, meaning we're close to the final draft cycle of the season. Draft boards are shaping up and mock drafts are starting to paint a clearer picture of what to expect when Rob Manfred takes the podium.

MLB Pipeline recently released their latest mock draft. Dating back to late last year, MLB has had a different player landing with the Reds with each new edition of their mock. In December, it was Eli Willits, the switch-hitting 17-year-old shortstop from the prep ranks in Oklahoma. A few months ago, it was Jace Laviolette, the big left handed slugger out of Texas A&M. Jojo Parker, a prep shortstop out of Mississippi was the pick a few weeks back. Now in the latest edition, MLB actually has the best prep pitching prospect in the class, Seth Hernandez, landing with the Reds.

Hernandez has the potential to be very special. We are talking about a pitcher that evaluators have consistently claimed to be the best high school pitching prospect since Jackson Jobe was selected third overall in 2021. A lot of those same evaluators actually claim that Hernandez is better than Jobe. In my personal opinion, it's hard to see a world in which Hernandez is still available when it's the Reds turn to pick. However, MLB.com probably knows something I don't if they have him mocked this far down after getting legitimate first overall consideration earlier this year.

Will Seth Hernandez still be on the board when the Reds pick in the 2025 MLB Draft?

After all, we have seen prep prospects lose stock throughout the season in back to back years now, for no other reason than collegiate prospects shooting up draft boards, specifically during the college postseason. Konnor Griffin, the first prep prospect off the board last year, was in the hunt to go first overall early in the season, and ended up falling to the Pittsburgh Pirates with the ninth overall pick.

Organizations are starting to lean more towards the high-probability, fast-moving college guys, even at the top end of the draft. High school pitchers have historically been the riskiest demographic to select from, so it's not actually out of the realm of possibility for Hernandez to fall as far as ninth overall, regardless of how good he can be.

If Hernandez is in fact available with the ninth overall pick, the Reds could have an interesting decision to make. Hunter Greene, Cincinnati's ace, obviously came from the prep ranks as the second overall pick in 2017. Granted, it took a lot of growing pains and a Tommy John surgery to get there. That's the type of risk the Reds would be running if they wanted to return to the well and select Hernandez.

On top of that, the Reds have leaned heavily on college prospects in the first round that they can under-slot in order to land prep prospects they like later on in the draft. In fact, they haven't taken a prep prospect with their first round pick since 2020. With all of that being said, let's talk about four different players the Reds could pivot to with their first round pick that will allow them to approach the rest of the draft the same way they have over the last few years.

MLB Draft sleepers the Reds should consider before taking Seth Hernandez

Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

The Reds are no strangers to college arms. Both of their last two first-round picks were college arms — Chase Burns went second overall last year and Rhett Lowder went seventh overall in 2023. Both arms were taken earlier than they were projected so the Reds could sign them at an under-slot deal, and it's safe to say both those picks have panned out well for them. Bremner is certainly a pitcher they can get at a discount as the ninth overall pick.

Coming into the season, Bremner was projected to be one of the first college pitchers off the board in July. Unfortunately due to a down-year compared to expectations, the 6-foot-2 right-hander has fallen towards the back half of the first round. However, this is still a pitcher with top-10 upside.

He has a three pitch mix, two of which are comfortably above-average offerings and play up due to his ability to command the strike zone well. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and has topped out at 98 mph with a lot of arm-side run and some deceptive arm action. His changeup is arguably his best pitch as some scouts have attached a 70 grade to it. It's his go-to offering to earn whiffs as it tunnels well off of the fastball, and he'll throw it in any situation.

Amateur pitchers with his type of feel for an off-speed pitch are hard to come by. For his glove-side offering, it's a gyro slider that has the potential to be average at the next level. He primarily leaned on the fastball and the changeup in college because that was all he needed to find success. In order to stick as a starter at the next level, the slider will have to be developed into a pitch Bremner becomes comfortable using more often.

If there is something the Reds really like about Bremner, I wouldn't find it crazy to see him land with them on an under-slot deal. Whether it's the athleticism, projectability, or fastball-changeup combination, there might be something in there that the Reds player development department really believe they can tap into. It would be a roll of the dice, but it could be a decision that yields a lot of return.

Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina

In the two seasons prior to the Reds selecting Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, they took college bats in back to back years, both of which have looked like solid picks. They took Matt McLain 17th overall in 2021, and Cam Collier, their No. 4 ranked prospect, 18th overall in 2022. If the college arms they're looking for are off the board when their pick comes around, it would make sense for them to pivot to a college bat.

Luke Stevenson is comfortably the best catcher in this year's draft class. A draft eligible sophomore out of North Carolina, Stevenson has one of the best gloves behind the plate to pair with a plus arm that features both strength and accuracy to limit the running game. Despite being a very physical athlete, standing in at 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, he moves well behind the dish which makes him an excellent blocker and receiver.

Given his prowess as a defender, there isn't a whole lot of pressure on his bat to be elite at the next level. Regardless, he's still among the best hitters in the college class. He does have a fringy hit tool that is exposed through hig struggles with secondary offerings, but it's held up by a mature, patient approach.

Stevenson maximizes his offensive output through his ability to make consistent hard contact, specifically in the air to the pull-side. If his bat doesn't come close to its ceiling in the long run, we're still talking about potentially an above-average player simply because of what he can bring with the glove.

You would have to go back ten years to find the last time the Reds took a catcher with their first round pick when they selected Tyler Stephenson 11th overall in 2015. Like Bremner, Stevenson is more likely to fall somewhere in the back half of the first round than he is to be a top ten pick. However, if the Reds are sold on his game and are looking to add some high-end catching depth to the farm without paying a high-dollar amount, this is certainly an option I can see landing on.

MLB Draft sleepers the Reds should consider before taking Seth Hernandez

Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)

The Reds for the most part have stuck up the middle with their first round picks in recent years. This year's crop of Day 1 prospects are chock-full of those types of players that will be available to the Reds. The prep class has a surplus of shortstops, a demographic the Reds are familiar with in the early rounds, so if there's a year they may move off of the college players in the first round for the first time since 2020, this would be the year.

With the amount of shortstops at the top end of the class, Gavin Fien has slipped through the cracks as one of the more underrated prep prospects. Following a strong performance on the summer circuit in 2024, Fien was looking like one of the best prep position players in the class.

Unfortunately due to a down year compared to expectations at a lower-tier high school this spring, he has slid toward the back half of the first round on plenty of mock drafts. However, there are some evaluators that are still completely bought into what Fien could provide as a top-10 pick.

Fien is a 6-foot-3, 200-pound third baseman with average to above-average tools across the board. Although he played shortstop for the majority of his high school career, he has already made the expected move to third base due to his size and the fact that his bat will play better there. Although he's not a plus runner, he's an above-average athlete that can handle the hot corner well, and can potentially move to right field due to his strong arm if he needed to.

While he looks like a reliable defender, his bat is what is going to land him in the first round. It's a healthy combination of hit and power, and there's a lot to dream on as he continues to grow. He has plenty of bat speed and has produced some of the top exit velocities in the prep class. He produces more line drives than fly balls, but has shown an ability to get to that power stroke from time to time as well. A simple tweak to find it more consistently may make him a very dangerous hitter at the next level.

He turned 18 in March, making him one of the younger prospects in the class, and won't be draft-eligible again until after his junior year at Texas. With that being said, it would probably take at least a slot-value deal to land Fien at ninth overall, but if the Reds are really bought in, this is certainly a bat I can see them betting on with their first-round pick.

Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest

If the Reds want to take a Wake Forest product with their first-round pick for the third year in a row, Ethan Conrad is a prospect they can probably get some good value from at ninth overall. If they want to stay in the college class but pivot back to the bats from which they've found recent success, Conrad fits the mold of what the Reds are looking for.

A left-handed hitter standing in at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, Conrad is a physical athlete, but has a lot of athletic upside for his size. He played the majority of his games at first base in his first two years at Marist, but only played the outfield in his two years of summer ball as well as his junior year at Wake Forest prior to his season-ending shoulder injury. The outfield is where he should settle in at the next level due to his athleticism and arm. He'll probably stick in a corner role, but can cover center field when needed.

Prior to the shoulder injury, Conrad was looking like one of the best hitters in college baseball. He has an above-average hit tool with excellent contact rates due to his aggression in the zone and patience on pitches out of the zone. He really started to tap into his power stroke this year as he grew into his frame and added strength. It's definitely a bat with top ten upside, but the fact he wasn't available deep into conference and postseason play leaves evaluators with some unanswered questions on how it might play in pro ball.

Conrad doesn't turn 21 until right before the draft, so he's a little younger than most of the draft-eligible juniors which is one more thing the Reds draft model might like. The injury is the only reason he has slid as far as the competitive balance round, so if the Reds believe it won't be a lingering issue, they should be able to get him well under-slot, which could end up looking like a true steal in a few years. It certainly fits the approach they've taken in previous drafts, so I wouldn't be surprised if Conrad is a name pretty high on their board right now.

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