Reds: 5 MLB Draft prospects that should be on the shortlist

It’s anyone’s guess as to who the Cincinnati Reds‘ brass is looking at in Round 1 of the 2021 MLB Draft, but we’ve got a pretty good idea of the direction Nick Krall and the front office might go. Given that Cincinnati has three of the first 35 picks, do not be shocked at all if the Reds draft a below-slot player in Round 1 and land a gem with pick No. 30 or 35.

The Reds have the fourth-most draft pool bonus money available, trailing only the Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Tigers, and Texas Rangers, all of whom have a pick in the Top 3. If Cincinnati were to select a below-slot prospect with the 17th overall pick, they will have saved some money to help sign a player at No. 30 or No. 35 who may have fallen out of the first-round.

With that in mind, we’ll be looking at a few below-slot options for the Reds, but it would be foolish to discount the idea that Cincinnati may go above-slot value with their first pick, and find a couple of below-slot value players later in the draft. So who might make Cincinnati’s shortlist?

1. Kansas State pitcher Jordan Wicks should be on the Reds’ shortlist.

Jordan Wicks is an imposing left-handed hurler out of the Big 12…sound like someone you know? No, I wouldn’t really compare Wicks to former TCU pitcher and current Reds prospect Nick Lodolo, however, much like the former first-round pick, the K-State lefty can command the strike zone.

Wicks’ calling card is his changeup. His fastball has a high spin-rate, something the Reds typically love from their pitchers. Wicks will not overpower hitters, as his four-seamer sits around 92-95 MPH, but combine that devastating changeup with an ever-developing breaking ball, and Wicks has the makings of a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

It doesn’t hurt that Jordan Wicks is a southpaw either. Outside of Lodolo, the Cincinnati Reds do not have a left-handed pitcher in their Top 30 prospects according to MLB Pipeline. Having seen Tony Santillan and Vladimir Gutierrez graduate to the big leagues, while Lodolo and Hunter Greene are likely not far behind, the Reds need to replenish the arms in their farm system. Adding Wicks is a good place to start.

2. Ole Miss pitcher Gunnar Hoglund should be on the Reds’ shortlist.

If you’re sensing a theme here, you’re correct. I expect a college pitcher to rank very high on the Cincinnati Reds’ shortlist, and Gunnar Hoglund is one of the best. Were it not for an elbow injury that required Tommy John earlier this season, Hoglund wouldn’t even be an option for Cincinnati at No. 17.

But, with the injury sidelining Hoglund until next season, the Reds could find the University of Mississippi product amenable to a below-slot deal, allowing the club to save up for a big-time addition with the 30th or 35th pick in the 2021 MLB Draft.

Hoglund’s injury likely means that the right-hander will come at a discount. We saw the New York Yankees use the same strategy with Clarke Schmidt when Brian Cashman and his crew selected the right-hander with the 16th overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft just months after he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Hoglund was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2018 MLB Draft, but decided too attend Ole Miss instead. He was mentioned in the same sentence with Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter as one of the top arms in the Southeastern Conference until he injured his elbow earlier this spring.

At 6-foot-4, Gunnar Hoglund fits the prototypical size that teams look for in starting pitchers nowadays. Prior to his injury, Hoglund was consistently sitting in the low-to-mid 90s and his slider has a wicked break to it. With a developing changeup, Hoglund could develop into a back-of-the-rotation starter if he is able to return from Tommy John surgery.

3. Florida outfielder Jud Fabian should be on the Reds’ shortlist.

If the Cincinnati Reds are looking for a college bat, Jud Fabian could be their guy. The 20-year-old is one of the younger college players in this year’s MLB Draft. Fabian is a boom or bust type of player who has ridiculous power, but scouts question whether or not he’ll make enough contact to show that power off. This would be another below-slot option that could help the Reds later in the draft.

Fabian had an up and down season at the University of Florida, but seemed to end on a high note. There were times when Fabian looked like a lock to go in the Top 10, and others when some scouts thought the outfielder would fall out of Round 1 all together. Fabian is a mixed bag, but if he gets it right, he could be an impact player in the majors.

At this spot in the first-round, especially given the fact that Cincinnati has two picks prior to the second-round, it seems like as good a time as any to roll the dice. Fabian will never be mistaken for Billy Hamilton, but he has enough speed to field center field and gets good reads off the bat.

Fabian has fringe-five tool talent, but his struggles earlier this season certainly impacted his draft stock. Prior to the 2021 season, many scouts thought of him as a Top 5 pick. That talent just doesn’t disappear. If Fabian can regain that swing that saw him hit .294 with eight doubles, six home runs, and 16 RBIs prior to the COVID-19 shutdown, he’ll be a welcome addition to the Reds farm system.

5. Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick should be on the Reds’ shortlist.

Massachusetts native Sal Frelick got to live out the dream of playing college baseball for his home-state Boston College Eagles. Frelick parlayed a fantastic 2021 season at BC into a likely first-round selection, and if the 21-year-old is still on the board at No. 17, the Cincinnati Reds shouldn’t hesitate for one second.

At 5-foot-9, 175-pounds, Frelick may be deemed undersized, but that hasn’t stopped him from showcasing his oversized talent on the baseball diamond. If there’s a ball in the strike zone, Frelick is going to put it in play. In terms of pure hitters, Frelick may be the best in the 2021 MLB Draft. He’s had an OPS over 1.000 for the past two seasons.

This young man is intense, and he brings that bravado onto the playing field game-in and game-out. Frelick isn’t going to give you opposite field power, but he’s going to put the bat on the ball, and certainly has the ability to drive the ball into the gap consistently.

Sal Frelick is a left-handed batter who’s most likely spot at the majors is right field, though there’s a chance he could play center field. Frelick has above-average speed and enough arm strength to play up the middle. The fact that he’s not a power-hitter might see Frelick wind up in center rather than a corner outfield spot.

There are a dozen different ways the Cincinnati Reds could go in the upcoming MLB Draft. With the likely graduation to the major leagues of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo in the coming months, it’s easy to see the front office target pitching. Finding a player under slot-value seems like a sound strategy as well with three of the first 35 picks in the draft.