Reds vs. Giants: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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DENVER, CO – MAY 15: Shogo Akiyama #4 of the Cincinnati Reds is congratulated by Jonathan India #6 and teammates after making a catch. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /

The Reds open a pivotal homestand against the surprising Giants.

It took a comeback of near historic proportions, but the Cincinnati Reds return to Great American Ball Park in better shape than they left it. It’s tough to be disappointed in a winning road trip, but visiting two last-place clubs along the three city trek, a 5-4 mark, is the least of acceptable outcomes as far as the Reds are concerned.

Yesterday for the first time since 2007, the Redlegs (19-19) battled back from a five-run deficit entering the eighth inning and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat as they topped the Colorado Rockies 7-6 to salvage a split during the four-game set in Denver.

Entering play today, Cincinnati finds themselves 2.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. As the San Francisco Giants arrive in town, the Reds will be facing a formidable opponent to open a seven-game homestand in the Queen City.

All the talk in the offseason surrounding the National League West was the supposed two-team battle for supremacy between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. Obviously, nobody consulted the Giants.

As play begins today, the San Francisco Giants (24-16) leads the NL West by a half-game over the Padres and two games in front of the Dodgers. Not only are the Giants leading their division they currently have the second-best record in baseball.

Cincinnati and San Francisco will wrap up their 2021 season series this week. Since 2011 the Reds .594 winning percentage against the Giants is their highest mark against any National League club.

The last time the Reds dropped a season series to the Giants was during the 2015 campaign. At home, the Redlegs are 19-10 versus the Giants over the last decade, and it’s been 2016 since Cincinnati lost a home series to San Francisco.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – MAY 09: Johnny Cueto #47 of the San Francisco Giants reacts. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Giants starting rotation among the league’s best.

It’s no secret as to why the San Francisco Giants are occupying the top spot in the NL West. Their starting rotation, which happens to feature three former Reds, has been dominating to open the 2021 campaign.

Entering Sunday, the San Francisco starting rotation ERA of 2.79 trailed on the New York Mets starting staff among NL clubs. How good has the Giants’ rotation been? Logan Webb, who will get the start tonight, is the only member of the Giants rotation with an ERA north of 3.62.

If the Giants are vulnerable, it’s in their bullpen—the relief corps ERA of 4.38 ranks 11th in the senior circuit, and their 12 blown saves are tied for the most among National League bullpens. Despite the 10 saves closer Jake McGee shouldn’t strike fear in anyone. In 19 appearances, the southpaw has allowed 18 hits and four round-trippers in 17.2 innings of work.

The Giants have needed the strong starting pitching because their offense is hardly an intimidating group. Their .224 batting average is the second-worst in the NL, and their 224 base hits are third from the basement.

All the names at the top of the San Francisco offensive leaderboard are familiar ones. First baseman Brandon Belt, shortstop Brandon Crawford, and catcher Buster Posey have combined for 25 homers on the season.

Few hitters enjoy playing against the Reds as much as Brandon Belt. The left-handed slugger’s career batting average of .301 and .618 slugging marks are his highest versus any opponent he’s faced at least 50 times.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 26: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Giants.

Sonny Gray (0-2 3.55 ERA) gets the call in the series opener, while San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler will counter with Logan Webb (2-3 4.74 ERA). Gray is coming off an uncharacteristic rough outing courtesy of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Even though he surrendered just one run, he failed to escape the fifth inning as he allowed seven hits and two walks to a mediocre Pirate lineup. It marked the third time in five starts this season in which Gray could not complete five frames of work.

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In three career starts against the Giants, the Cincinnati right-hander is unbeaten with 17 punch outs in 18 innings. However, San Francisco third baseman Evan Longoria has long been a thorn in Gray’s side. The longtime Tampa Bay Ray is slashing .303/.343/.515 in 33 at-bats versus the Vanderbilt alum.

Logan Webb, who will be making his first career start against the Reds, is coming off an impressive performance versus the Texas Rangers. Tossing six innings, the 24-year-old right-hander allowed just three hits and one earned run while fanning 10 Rangers.

Tuesday night finds Luis Castillo (1-5 7.71 ERA) trying to right the ship once again as he faces former teammate Anthony DeSclafani (3-1 2.14 ERA) of the Giants. Castillo’s struggles to begin 2021 have been well chronicled by Blog Red Machine so let’s focus on his dominance of San Francisco over his career.

He’s 2-0 in four starts with 36 strikeouts in only 24.2 innings of work when battling San Francisco. Giants’ first baseman Brandon Belt is hitless against La Piedra in nine at-bats while fanning four times.

After spending five seasons in the Queen City, Anthony DeSclafani makes his return to Great American Ball Park. Disco is off to a great start on the West Coast; however, GABP has not always been welcoming. In his 57 games in the stadium, he’s 19-22 with a 4.62 ERA. Let’s hope history repeats.

Left-hander Wade Miley (4-3 3.69 ERA) will toe the rubber Wednesday, battling yet another former Redleg in Kevin Gausman (3-0 1.84 ERA). As unforgettable as Miley’s start against the Cleveland Indians was, his last trip to the mound versus the Colorado Rockies was equally forgettable.

Tossing three innings, he was roughed up for 11 hits and eight runs in a Cincinnati defeat. It was Miley’s worst showing of the season by a mile. Hopefully, the sight of Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria will return him to his dominating ways.

The pair of Giants are just 12-for-55 with 14 punch outs against the southpaw. Interestingly, Miley has not dropped a decision to San Francisco since 2014, when he was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Kevin Gausman has been nothing short of sensational to open the 2021 season. Currently ranked fourth in ERA (1.84) and fifth in WHIP (0.839), the right-hander makes a strong, early-season case for the NL Cy Young Award.

Nevertheless, the Cincinnati Reds have treated their former teammate rudely. In four career starts against the Redlegs, he’s winless and has been scorched for 28 hits in 18.2 innings while compiling an 11.09 ERA.

Thursday afternoon’s matinee finale will feature Tyler Mahle (2-1 2.93 ERA) opposing Johnny Cueto (2-1 3.62 ERA), the former longtime Cincinnati ace. After complaining about Mahle’s lack of efficiency, he went out and pitched a terrific game against the Colorado Rockies.

Completing seven innings for the first time this year, the California native failed to issue a walk and tossed just 93 pitches to the 28 batters he faced. Even though he recorded only four strikeouts, this is the Tyler Mahle the Reds will need to see moving forward. Going deeper into games and reducing the stress on the bullpen.

Johnny Cueto and Great American Ball Park are a match made in heaven. Lifetime the Dominican Republic native is an incredible 48-23 with a 2.97 ERA in 100 starts in the Queen City. As much as I love Johnny Cueto, here’s hoping he leaves Cincinnati with his 24th loss.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – MAY 02: Nick Castellanos #2 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a home run. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

The Reds offense hopes to continue to feed off home cooking.

The splits are dramatic. As play began yesterday, the Cincinnati offense is slashing .275/.362/.502 at home as opposed to .231/.295/.376 on the road. Luckily for the Reds, they’ll be spending the week at Great American Ball Park. Two players, in particular, have enjoyed the comforts of home. Catcher Tucker Barnhart and right fielder Nick Castellanos have done serious damage at GABP.

Barnhart is slashing a remarkable .379/.457/.659 with three homers, and nine RBIs in 41 at-bats. His 117 OPS+ is currently a career-high by a wide margin. If Tucker can maintain this type of production at the plate combined with his Gold Glove-winning defense, he may find himself making his first career All-Star appearance.

Speaking of earning their debut All-Star nods, it’s tough to imagine a scenario in which Nick Castellanos won’t be representing the National League in Denver come mid-July. The Cincinnati outfielder has absolutely worn out opposing pitching at GABP.

Slashing .379/.410/.862 with eight round-trippers and 17 RBIs Castellanos has been crushing opponents in his home ballpark. Entering play Sunday tied for second in homers and batting average, Castellanos has established himself as one of the most dangerous hitters in the senior circuit.

Prediction

This is one of those weeks that could possibly be a harbinger for the Cincinnati Reds long-term 2021 prospects. Facing two of the league’s best teams in the San Francisco Giants and the Milwaukee Brewers, the Redlegs will see how they stack up against quality competition.

Next. The 2021 season should be Castillo's last in Cincy

Cincinnati is 10-7 at home this year and has owned the Giants at GABP over the past decade. All of that holds true this week as the Reds make a statement by taking three of four from San Francisco before turning their sights on the Brewers in an NL Central showdown.

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