Cincinnati Reds: Ranking the free agent signings this offseason

The Cincinnati Reds have spent a lot of money this offseason on free agents with the desire to compete in 2020. Which signing is the best?

The Cincinnati Reds have yet to enter spring training, but the 2020 roster is shaping up to be one fo the best we’ve seen in several years. The starting rotation is set, a middle-of-the-road bullpen gained a power arm, and one of the worst hitting teams in the NL last season landed three quality bats. But which of the five free agent acquisitions is the best?

Dick Williams and Nick Krall entered this offseason with a mission. After acquiring key pieces last winter in an effort to #GetThePitching, the Reds front office had a clear motive to #GetTheHitting this offseason. Cincinnati did just that with the additions of Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Nick Castellanos.

Realizing that the starting rotation was the strength of the team, Williams and Krall were not content to rest on last year’s success. After adding Sonny Gray, Alex Wood and Tanner Roark last winter, Cincinnati’s front office swung a deal for Trevor Bauer at the trade deadline. With Wood and Roark entering free agency, the Reds decided they needed reinforcements and signed Wade Miley.

While the Reds made a few minor-league offers to such relievers as Nate Jones and Tyler Thornburg, question marks still surrounded the Cincinnati bullpen. After finishing seventh in the NL in terms of ERA, adding an additional arm to bullpen became a prudent move. Just a couple days ago, the Reds signed veteran reliever Pedro Strop to help solidify the bullpen.

Bob Castellini opened his wallet this winter and Reds fans are ecstatic. After years of toiling in the NL Central basement, Cincinnati has the makings of a team that can compete for a division crown. But which of the five free agent signings ranks best among the moves the Reds front office has made this offseason?

5. Wade Miley, Left-handed pitcher

Two-year/$15M deal

Okay, to be clear, I love the Wade Miley signing. I think the Reds should have made a push to sign the former Milwaukee Brewer last offseason. So, ranking Miley No. 5 doesn’t speak so much to the idea that it’s a bad acquisition, but rather how good the other four signings are. Miley signed a two-year/$15M deal with Cincinnati.

Miley had a fantastic year with the Houston Astros last season. The left-hander went 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA. Miley struck out 140 batters in 167.1 innings of work. In 2018, Miley started 16 games for the Milwaukee Brewers. Miley went 5-2 with a 2.52 ERA. Miley is a workhorse, starting 29 or more games in seven of the past eight seasons.

So why rank Miley so low? First, of all, I think it’s debatable as to whether or not Miley is an upgrade over last year’s starter Tyler Mahle. No, Mahle did not have a great season for Cincinnati, going 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA. However, according to FanGraphs, Mahle has a higher strikeout-rate and a lower walk-rate than Miley.

Wade Miley will be a solid addition to the Reds starting rotation, especially if the player we saw between between March and August shows up. During those 28 starts, Miley went 13-4 with a 3.06 ERA for Houston. However, Miley got lit up in September, throwing only 11.1 innings in five starts to the tune of 16.68 ERA.

4. Pedro Strop, Right-handed pticher

One-year/$1.8M deal

The Cincinnati Reds inked former Chicago Cubs reliever Pedro Strop to a one-year deal worth $1.8M. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Strop has the potential to take home $3.5M if he meets certain criteria. Strop adds another power arm to an already-loaded Reds bullpen. He also has tons of experience within the NL Central Division.

Much the opposite of Wade Miley, Pedro Strop is coming off one of his worst seasons since coming up to the majors. Last year, Strop went 2-5 with a 4.97 ERA in 50 appearances for the Cubs. Strop had not pitched that badly since his time with the Texas Rangers. Hopefully, the right-hander can return to player we’re used to seeing.

Strop’s strikeout-rate didn’t suffer last season, in fact, it was the highest he’d seen in three years according to FanGraphs. Unfortunately, Strop’s walk-rate was also up. Even worse was his HR/9 (1.30), which was the highest it’d been since 2010. If Strop returns to form, this could be a very valuable signing.

Because Pedro Strop will likely not be counted on as one of the top two or three arms out of the Reds bullpen, there’s no need to rank him above No. 4 on this list. Yes, it was a very solid signing and brings depth to the Cincinnati bullpen. However, considering all the acquisitions the Reds have made this season, Strop’s signing is not as significant as some of the others.

3. Shogo Akiyama, Outfielder

Three-year/$21M deal

Now, we’re getting somewhere. The acquisition of Shogo Akiyama was a groundbreaking signing by the Cincinnati Reds. Akiyama will be the first Japanese-born player to suit up for the Reds. That in and of itself is something significant, but more so than that is Akiyama’s potential at the dish. If his game translates from NPB to MLB, this could be the best signing of the offseason.

Akiyama is a bit of an unknown, as he’s yet to play a game in the majors. However, Akiyama has hit over .300 in four the past five seasons he played in Japan. During that same span, Akiyama hit 94 home runs and played phenomenal defense. Critics warn of Akiyama declining in this area, but with the small outfield at Great American Ball Park, it may not be a huge concern.

Akiyama brings great versatility to the Reds, as the front office has expressed the desire to see him play all over the field. Akiyama gives Cincinnati great insurance in the event Nick Senzel isn’t healthy to begin the season, is switched to a different position, or is traded prior to the 2020 season beginning.

Shogo Akiyama will be a regular atop the Cincinnati Reds batting order. Look for Akiyama to be the table-setter for the likes of Eugenio Suárez, Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. Akiyama’s on-base percentage has hovered at or above .400 for the past five seasons. Akiyama has concerns defensively, but those will be quickly forgotten if he produces at the plate.

2. Nick Castellanos, Outfielder

Four-year/$64M deal

Ranking Nick Castellanos ahead of Shogo Akiyama was difficult, but without knowing exactly how Akiyama’s game will translate to the major league level, I think it’s fair. We all know how Castellanos’ abilities translate. Last season, Castellanos led all of Major League Baseball with 58 doubles. The 27-year-old also launched 27 homers in 2019 as well.

Now, Castellanos brings some question marks. Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first. Yes, Castellanos’ defense is suspect at best. However, after making the switch to right field from third base, Castellanos went from -19 defensive runs scored in 2018 to -9 DRS in 2019. In the same way we discussed Akiyama earlier, if Castellanos rakes like he’s capable of, no one will bat an eye.

Okay, let’s discuss the contract. This is the biggest reason that Castellanos is sitting at No. 2 and not No. 1. Castellanos signed for the same number as fellow free agent signee Mike Moustakas. However, as part of Castellanos’ four-year/$64M contract, the right-handed slugger has the ability to opt out after both the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

That shouldn’t scare fans away, in fact, it gives Nick Castellanos great incentive to outperform his contract. Honestly, the biggest drawback to Castellanos may be the spike in production we saw once he joined the Cubs. In 51 games with Chicago, Castellanos slashed .321/.356/.646 with 16 of his 27 homers coming after his trade to the Windy City.

Is that the version of Nick Castellanos Reds Country is going to see, or are we more likely to see the player that put up a .783 OPS until the final two months of the 2019 season? Regardless, the signing of Castellanos is a net-positive for the Reds. Look for Castellanos to be a force in the middle of the Reds lineup.