Cincinnati Reds: Ranking the value of contracts signed to avoid arbitration

On Friday, the Cincinnati Reds announced that all five arbitration eligible players had reached agreements with the club. Which one brings the most value?

The Cincinnati Reds reached one-year agreements with all five arbitration eligible players on Friday. The signings guarantee that Cincinnati will avoid dealing with the arbitration process for the second year in a row. It’s always difficult to assign value to players who’ve yet to take the field, but based on what we know, which deals could be the biggest bargains for the Reds in 2020?

Travis Jankowski, who was brought to Cincinnati earlier this offseason, agreed to a one-year/$1.05M contract prior to yesterday’s deadline for teams and players to exchange figures. The arbitration process can be a messy one, so it’s always advantageous for both parties to attempt to work out a deal without having to go through the exercise.

Last winter, the likes of Yasiel Puig, Tanner Roark, and Scooter Gennett were among those up for arbitration for the final time. Billy Hamilton was non-tendered last year, a method used to avoid entering the arbitration process with an eligible player. The same fate awaited José Peraza and Kevin Gausman this offseason.

This time, both Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani entered their final year of arbitration eligibility, meaning both starting pitchers will be a free agent following the 2020 season. Agreeing the one-year deals does not prohibit clubs from negotiating long-term extensions with players, but Bauer has been steadfast in his desire to not sign anything beyond a one-year deal.

So, which deals offered the Reds a bargain and which contracts may not live up to the expectations? Let’s give it our best guess as to which one-year agreements are the best and which ones carry a bit more risk.

5. Curt Casali, Catcher

2020 salary: $1.46M

Curt Casali took home $950K last year after agreeing to a one-year deal prior to the 2019 season. Casali spent some time on the injured list, but still saw time in 84 games, hitting .251 with 8 home runs and 32 RBIs. Casali will enter the 2020 season as Tucker Barnhart‘s backup, but I’d expect to see a similar split in playing time with Casali getting the start against opposing left-handers.

Casali agreed to a one-year/$1.46M contract and will not become a free agent until after the 2022 season. Casali, initially traded to Cincinnati from Tampa Bay, has carved out a nice niche since coming to the Queen City. When Tucker Barnhart went on the IL last season with an oblique injury, Casali became the primary backstop for the Reds.

Both Casali and Barnhart enter the 2020 season in a bit of a precarious situation. The Reds were obviously looking to upgrade the catcher’s spot this offseason, as the front office was rumored to be involved in talks with Yasmani Grandal and Robinson Chirinos. There’s also highly-touted prospect Tyler Stephenson, who had success in the Arizona Fall League, nipping at their heels.

Ranking Casali isn’t a knock against the 31-year-old, as $1.46M isn’t a bad price at all for a backup catcher. However, the ascension of Stephenson could greatly affect Casali’s playing time as the season goes along. If the young backstop showcases his talents at Triple-A Louisville and Casali struggles, we could see Stephenson in Cincinnati quicker than expected.

4. Matt Bowman, Relief pitcher

2020 salary: $865K

Matt Bowman joined the Cincinnati Reds last November after he was claimed off waivers from the St. Louis Cardinals. Bowman began the 2019 season with Triple-A Louisville, but made his way to Cincinnati in May. The right-handed reliever signed a one-year/$865K deal on Friday and will likely find a home in the Reds bullpen next season.

Cincinnati’s bullpen has some cracks, but keeping Bowman in the fold helps add some stability. The Maryland native saw action in 27 games, pitching 32.0 innings, striking out 25 batters and putting up a 3.66 ERA and 1.250 WHIP. Bowman was not lights out by any means, but he proved to be a reliable piece of the relief corps.

The backend of the Reds bullpen appears to be set. Raisel Iglesias, after a less than stellar 2019 campaign, will be looking to return to form. Michael Lorenzen showed his versatility at the plate, in field, and on the mound, striking out a career-high 85 batters. Amir Garrett will be the best left-handed option in late-game situations, and Robert Stephenson stepped his game up last season.

Add Bowman and his 0.56 HR/9 to the bullpen, and David Bell has a pitcher capable of going multiple innings and keeping the ball in the park. According to FanGraphs, Bowman had a 55.1% ground ball rate in 2019, his best since 2016 with St. Louis. Bowman has a nice repertoire of breaking pitches that play well in Great American Ball Park.

3. Trevor Bauer, Starting pitcher

2020 salary: $17.5M

Trevor Bauer has the opportunity to climb all the way up to No. 1 on this list if he pitches up to his ability. That didn’t happen last year after the Cincinnati Reds acquired Bauer in a three-team deal involving the San Diego Padres and Cleveland Indians. The Reds sent Yasiel Puig to Cleveland and top prospect Taylor Trammell to San Diego.

Bauer, who was 9-8 with the Indians with a 3.79 ERA through 24 starts, fell well short of expectations in the 10 games he played for the Reds last year. Bauer went 2-5 with a 6.39 ERA in 56.1 innings of work after his trade to Cincinnati. However, Bauer’s FIP was 4.85, a difference of 1.54, suggesting that he may have been a bit unlucky.

Trevor Bauer has an elite repertoire of pitches and has electric stuff. The talent is certainly there, and we’ve seen that he can put it all together. In 2018 with Cleveland, Bauer went to the All-Star Game and finished sixth in the AL Cy Young chase while going 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA in 28 games. If Bauer plays up to that level, he’ll more than exceed the value of his contract for next season.

Bauer’s $17.5M deal surpasses the $17M contract that Jacob deGrom agreed to last offseason. In fact, the only arbitration eligible pitcher to ever sign a more lucrative deal was David Price ($19.75M) in 2015. Bauer may enter the 2020 season as the team’s No. 3 starter, but he’ll be paid like an ace, and may very well reach that level by the end of the season.

2. Anthony DeSclafani, Starting pitcher

2020 salary: $5.98M

Anthony DeSclafani finally put together a compete season in 2019 following several injury-plagued years. The 29-year-old went 9-9 in 31 starts with a 3.89 ERA and 167 strikeouts. Disco showed that he could be an important piece of the Cincinnati Reds rotation and will enter the 2020 season with a lot of expectations.

Finishing in the Top 20 of the National League in both ERA and punch outs, Anthony DeSclafani is entering uncharted territory. After missing nearly two years due to injury, the right-hander has the opportunity to go back-to-back years making 30-plus starts. The success of Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray overshadowed Disco’s success in 2019, but make no mistake, he was very good.

DeSclafani’s 24.0% strikeout-rate, according to FanGraphs, was the best of his career. Disco also saw a dip in his HR/9, going from 1.88 in 2018 to 1.52 last year. While DeSclafani did have have a propensity to surrender the long ball, his 16.9 K-BB% was a career-best as well. Anthony DeSclafani will be heavily relied upon next season.

With the addition of Wade Miley, Disco will likely be the Reds fourth or fifth starter next season. If DeSclafani meets or exceeds the standard he set last season, his 2020 salary of a little less than $6M is very good deal for the Reds. I’d personally love to see Cincinnati entertain the idea of signing Disco to a multi-year extension rather than allow him to reach free agency at season’s end.