Apr 8, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (4) dives and throws out St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Carlos Beltran (not pictured) during the eighth inning at Busch Stadium. Cincinnati defeated St. Louis 13-4. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

After the debacle at GABP yesterday, when the Reds blew a 4-0 lead and lost in overtime to the Cubs 5-4, the Cards did their part and beat the Dodgers sending the Reds back another game. They now stand deadlocked with the Pittsburgh Pirates in second place 1 1/2 games out.

If you think that the Reds have been cursed with the voodoo doll syndrome, think again. Two of the Cards’ starters, Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia are already on the shelf. Since April 29 St. Louis has given five pitchers – Seth Maness, Carlos Martinez, John Gast, Tyler Lyons and now Michael Blazek, their first MLB call-up. Yet, they keep winning.

While the Reds have had the misfortune of landing on three losing streaks, sizes 5, 3 and 2, the Redbirds have kept losing streaks at a manageable number. They only show two losing streaks so far, a 3 game and a 2 game. It is impossible to catch somebody who refuses to lose a series.

Look at this: In 16 series this season the Cards have only lost two. The Reds too have played 16 series so far, and have dropped six of them. That, my friend, is why the Reds cannot gain ground regardless of their own success.

In the two series they have played one another, both in St. Louis, the Cards won them and are currently 4-2 against their rivals. The next chance the Reds will have to knock heads with the Cardinals will be June 7 at GABP.

Since April 15 the Reds have a record of 26-12 which computes to a .684 percentage, which is better than any team has for the season. Since that date the Cards have a record of 25-12, or .676. That is saying that in the past 38 games the Reds have only gained 1/2 game while chasing the leaders.

To throw the Pirates in the same mix, they have only lost four of their series this season. Since April 15, they are 25-13, or .657. Wouldn’t you think it is fair to say that the three hottest teams in the National League are in the Central Division? They are, at least in terms of wins and winning percent.

Health issues seem to mean nothing to the front-running Cardinals. No matter who goes out, somebody steps up, in similar fashion to the way Ryan Ludwick, Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier did last year for Cincinnati.

In my humble opinion the Reds have the best starting rotation in MLB. Bronson Arroyo has the highest ERA of the five starters at 3.39. I will take that any day.

With what we have seen so far it is apparent that winning head-to-head matches are the only way for these three to remain at the head of the pack.

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Apr 26, 2013; Washington, D.C., USA; Bailey pitches in the second inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. (Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports)

The rubber game of the three game series today. The Reds took the first game by a score of 2-1. The Cards won last night’s game with the identical score.

Starting Pitchers

Reds – Homer Bailey
2013: 1-2, 2.81 ERA, 1.063 WHIP (5 games/starts)
v STL: 3-8, 5.52 ERA, 1.541 WHIP (14 games/starts)
@ Busch III: 0-4, 6.93 ERA, 1.703 WHIP (6 games/starts)
Last appearance v STL: 4/10/13 (L) @ STL – 5 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER3 BB, 2 SO, 3 HR

Since Homer’s last outing against the Cards, he has pitched well. While in those last three games he owns a losing record of 0-1, Bailey has produced an ERA of 1.29 and WHIP of 0.810. In that same span, he has whiffed 24 opponents and issued only 3 walks.

Bailey v. Cardinals Batters

Cardinals – Lance Lynn
2013: 4-0, 3.10 ERA, 1.138 WHIP
v. CIN: 1-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (5 games, 2 starts)
@ Busch III: 11-5, 2.91 ERA, 1.048 WHIP (25 games, 15 starts)
Last appearance v CIN: 4/9/13 (W) @ STL – 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO

That outing against the Good Guys got Lynn on a bit of a roll, having won his next three outings as well. The Pirates roughed him up a little (4 R in 5 IP), but Lynn still got the W. In his last 14 IP, Lynn has permitted only 3 hits and 1 run.

Lynn v. Reds Batters

Starting Lineups

Donald Lutz gets his first start in his MLB career and Dusty appears to have his lefty-righty lineup in the making. I thought maybe we’d see another regular get the day off, but only Mes will see the extra rest.

Zack Cozart’s homer off Lynn cam back in 2011. It was also his 1st MLB home run.

As if Matt Holliday didn’t make all the difference in last night’s game, he hits Bailey rather well, too. And so does Yadier Molina. And so does Jon Jay. And so does David Freese, but Freese is getting some time off according to Cards skipper Mike Matheny.

Of note, late last evening, the Reds acquired Mark Teahen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for either cash or a player to be named later. The purpose was to add depth at the minor league level. Teahen hasn’t played in a major league game since Sept. 28, 2011 when he was a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Apr 25, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Arroyo throws a pitch in the first inning of the game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. (Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports)

Who would have thought that a broken bat ground out would lead to a Reds 2-1. If your hand is in the air, you can put it down as I sincerely doubt you had that bet. If you honestly did and won a few dolalrs, I demand the slip as proof…

Now then. By the looks of tonight’s pitching matchup, you would logically guess that it favors the Cardinals. No question that Jaime Garcia has the Reds’ number. No question that the Cards have Arroyo’s number.

As they say, that’s why they play the games.

Tonight’s game is also MLB Network’s Showcase game. Bob Costas and John Smoltz will be calling the game and Tom Verducci will provide reports from the field.

Probable Starting Pitchers

Reds – Bronson Arroyo
2013: 2-2, 4.24 ERA, 1.088 WHIP (5 games/starts)
v. STL: 8-14, 4.60 ERA, 1.330 WHIP (34 games, 32 starts)
@ Busch III: 3-7, 5.46 ERA, 1.394 WHIP (15 games/starts)
Last appearance v STL: 4/9/13 (L) – 6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 2 SO

You look at Arroyo’s numbers at Busch II and you shudder. Although it was only 3 games, his numbers were worse in Busch II!

As is usually the case when the Reds send Arroyo to the bump, look for the opposition to load up with lefty bats. For this season, it’s even more so.

2013
RHB: .186/.222/.237, 0 HR in 64 PA
LHB: .306/.315/.528, 4 HR in 73 PA

Career
RHB: .241/.294/.389, 122 HR in 4,603 PA
LHB: .289/.346/.486, 164 HR in 4,370 PA

Just looking at the PAs for this season alone tells you all you need to know.

Arroyo v. Cardinals Batters

Cardinals – Jaime Garcia
2013: 2-1, 2.89 ERA, 1.429 WHIP (5 games/starts)
v. CIN: 8-2, 3.39 ERA, 1.312 WHIP (14 games, 12 starts)
@ Busch III: 20-11, 2.45 ERA, 1.185 WHIP (46 games, 41 starts)
Last appearance v CIN: 4/8/13 (ND) – 6.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 10 SO

Seems like practically every time Garcia takes the mound against the Good Guys, he hangs an “L” on them. Well, at least he didn’t in his last go-around when facing them. In fact, the Reds won that game. And in St. Louis. That 9-run 9th inning game. Less than a month ago.

You would think lefties have difficulties when facing Garcia. Not so. For his career, LHB are .270/.323/.368 with 6 HR in 447 PA when facing him. RHB aren’t as high in BA or OBP, but they do have an advantage in SLG (.264/.319/.378, 31 HR in 1,781 PA). Teams simply don’t put LHB in the lineup when facing him.

When some offer conversation regarding lefty arms against the Reds, the name commonly mentioned is Jay Bruce. As you will see in the table below, Bruce has decent success when facing Garcia. In Garcia’s outing earlier this month, Bruce went 2-3 with an RBI and he didn’t strike out. Prior to 2012, Bruce did struggle when facing him (2-16, 3 SO in 17 PA).

Garcia v. Reds Batters

Starting Lineups

Can’t say I’m shocked by either batting order. The Good Guys bring six RHB and a switch-hitter (Robinson) against Garcia. The Cards have four LHB and a switch-hitter (Beltran) going against Arroyo.

Game time of 8:15 PM ET for first pitch.