But that’s not where I’m going here. There’s a pair of Reds that are viewed as being big pieces in the 2013 puzzle that are having quite the opposite success on Arizona: Ryan Ludwick and Devin Mesoraco.

Can you guess who leads the Reds in whiffs so far this spring. Well, there’s a three-way (now I’m hungry) tie with 13 each: Ryan Ludwick, Miguel Olivo and Derrick Robinson. You’d expect to see Olivo as he swings at a lot of pitches. Robinson might be a shock only because he’s a “speed guy” and, well, he should make more contact and be more selective.

Feb 16, 2013; Goodyear, AZ, USA; Ludwick (48) poses for a photo during photo day at the Reds Spring Training Facility. (Photo: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports)

Ludwick’s inclusion may raise an eyebrow or two only because of the expectations on him for ’13. The Reds rewarded Ludwick for his bounce-back season with a two year, $15MM deal. Ludwick received a $2MM signing bonus, but will only make $1MM during the season. Back-loaded, ya think?

Want a downer? His triple slash this spring is .178/.196/.244. That’s downright ugly, but here’s the positive spin…and hope this serves true.

Ludwick had a good spring in 2012 posting a triple slash of .283/.316/.453. When it came for the games to count, Ludwick couldn’t buy a hit as he split time with Chris Heisey. Last April, Luddy’s triple slash was .190/.266/.397. He had 3 home runs (including a grand slam) and 10 RBI, but you could tell he was a bit off at the plate.

Maybe this spring is Ludwick’s April 2012′s slump. Get it out of the way now.

April 14, 2012; Washington, D.C., USA; Mesoraco (39) at bat against the Washington Nationals in the second inning at Nationals Park. The Nationals defeated the Reds 4 – 1. (Photo: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports)

And could Devin Mesoraco please do the opposite and carry his spring into the regular season? Did anyone anticipate Mes sporting a triple slash of .406/.472/.688? If you’re saying you did, I bet you also have Florida Gulf Coast in the Sweet 16 on your NCAA bracket, too.

There has been a bit of debate on how Mes should be used this year. Some prefer to see him taking on a bigger role while others want his participation to be about the same as last year. If the latter is true, do not expect things to be any better for him in 2013. There is a reason Yasmani Grandal was included in the deal to get Mat Latos…because the Reds tabbed Mesoraco and the catcher of the future and maybe it’s time the future start to show a little more.

I know he struggled at the plate last season, but if you want Mes to be a good player, he needs the time. There’s only so much this id can do in Louisville and spring training. Add this: if Ryan Hanigan should go down, Mesoraco will be front and center.

So, one trend to reverse and one to keep going. Yep, still spring training.

Oct 9, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce (32) hits a single in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants in game three of the 2012 NLDS at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Each year on the second day of February, a ground hog in Pennsylvania lifts his tired head out of his hole long enough to let the people know how much winter is left. Keeping that same tradition, I make it a habit to do a little portending of my own, Cincinnati Reds style.

Last season I was pretty much spot on with Ryan Ludwick. My exact words last Spring were, “Ludwick will wind back the clock—just not all the way back to 2008 when he put up monstrous numbers. He will bat .278 with 25 HR and 91 RBI.” Of course his actual numbers were .275 with 26 HR and 80 RBI. Not that bad, eh?

I predicted the Reds would win the NL Central, as they certainly did. I also predicted Johnny Cueto would win 18 and have an ERA of 2.30. His real statistics were 19 wins with a 2.78 ERA. I had my bad ones as well but I choose not to highlight them.

After having looked in my crystal ball, I now present to you, Reds Nation, my pre-season predictions for the 2013 Reds. They will repeat as Central Division champs, win 102 regular season games, and host the playoffs as the #1 seed. There will be only two .300 hitters, no 20-game winners and Jay Bruce will hit 40 homers. Here is the complete prophecies, in table format not quatrain, as my good friend and classmate Nostradamus would.

I have left Nick Masset off the list intentionally. I don’t think he will play this season. It’s foggy, but that is what the ball says.

What are your thoughts?

You can follow me on Twitter, or read more on my blog.

You had one hoping for a Ludwick return while the Reds would not “overpay” for his services. There was another that wanted Ludwick to return regardless of cost. You also had a few that maybe preferred not bringing back Ludwick regardless of contract number for fear of regression seeing as he would turn 35 during the season. Then, there were those feel the Reds front office could use the monies “allotted” for Ludwick and gone after, say, Michael Bourn (that was never going to be in the cards for the Reds), or another bona fide lead-off hitter instead (that would have been the route taken without a Ludwick return).

Well, in the end, it was the first that “won”. Ludwick elected to re-sign and the Reds did reportedly receive a bit of a discount as Ludwick had offers paying him as much as $3MM more than the Reds offer. One reason Ludwick chose to return because of team chemistry. We’ll see how that shakes out in light of the trade with the Cleveland Indians.

Here’s a peek at what Ludwick has done in his MLB career…

If you’re going by OPS+ alone, 2012 was Ludwick’s second best season of his career with 128. His best (151) came on the heels of his breakout season of 2008. If you’re one that prefers WAR, 2012 was his third best with a 1.7. His previous best were 2008 (5.3) and 2010 (2.3). Those numbers are from Baseball Reference. Fangraphs shows 2012 to be his second best season in wRC+ (133) and WAR (2.8).

Upon checking Fangraphs and their publication of the Bill James projections, here’s what we could look forward to from Ludwick in 2013.

As you view these projections, it would appear that those that feared a regressing Ludwick would have legitimate concerns. In using the Simple WAR calculator, Ludwick’s WAR for 2013, based on the James projections, would be 1.2 (v. 2.1) to 1.3 (v. 1.1.1).

A common theme, or if you prefer to call it, a possible myth, that develops whenever a Reds player sees offensive success or a jump in offensive production compared to a season or two previous is owning stats that are GABP inflated, enhanced or dependent. Consider Ludwick a bit of a case study.

2012 home: 66 G, .268/.341/.555, 16 HR, 46 RBI
2012 away: 59 G, .282/.351/.505, 10 HR, 34 RBI

July 23, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Ludwick is congratulated by teammates after scoring a run in the third inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

The only “inflated” stat is Ludwick’s SLG. The batting average and OBP are higher when away from GABP. Not as enhanced as one might think. Sometimes, the preverbial “change of scenery” does come into play. Ludwick admitted that PETCO Park played with his head and his swing. That had to translate when he was dealt to the Pittsburgh Pirates during the 2011 season.

Back to the projections and that one word some have feared: regression. It’s written across the board here. Were the Reds too desperate to fill the clean-up spot by bringing back Ludwick? The above projections suggest that, but projections also do not take into account the human factor.

Ludwick knows his role, how he hits at GABP, where he will be penciled in the everyday lineup (being between Votto and Bruce isn’t such a bad thing, huh?), what is expected of him, and how his clubhouse manner figures into the success of the 2013 Reds. It’s easy to see where Ludwick could suffer that regression. He was, after all, potentially playing for his last “big contract” last year even though that deal held a mutual option for a second year.

But that one year in Cincinnati did something to Ludwick. It reinvigorated him.

And 2013 could either display that dreaded regression, or, more positively, show the continuation of what new foundation Ludwick constructed in 2012.

(Catch other entries from the “Reds in 2013″ series:
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Jay Bruce
Shin-Soo Choo)