The National League Central is currently baseball’s Goodyear. Home to three of baseball’s top five ERA’s. St. Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have each allowed fewer runs than 80% of the league. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati boasts pitching staffs that encompass two of the three best opposing batting averages in baseball as well.

Starting pitching is traditionally a rare commodity. But so far, in the 2013 NL Central, it’s more the norm than anything. The three aforementioned clubs and the surprisingly efficient starters from the Chicago Cubs are four of baseball’s top ten best starting rotation ERA’s. And to emphasize the efficiency of these rotations, the Reds’ starting rotation has the fewest losses in baseball. The Cards’ have the second fewest while the Pirates are respectably 4th in said category.

So the question inevitably becomes, with an arms race this tight, who is likely to falter down the stretch? I make a case and counter for each team.

Jun 8, 2013; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mat Latos (55) pitches during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

1) Cincinnati Reds – If the Reds falter, it probably won’t be because of its starting pitching. Assuming Cueto remains healthy, the Reds’ starting rotation is arguably baseball’s best. When the five guy in the rotation has an ERA of  2.64, it’s easy to feel comfortable. And Reds fans should. Not to mention, Tony Cingrani has been more than a suitable spare for when Cueto goes down; however, this brilliant starting rotation has an evil alter ego that only creeps out late in the game. So far this year, the Reds’ bullpen has been the difference between first and second place. The bullpens of Pittsburgh and St. Louis have each surrendered nine losses. The Reds bullpen has been hit for 14, which is just two losses shy of having the most in baseball. The teams immediately in front of the Reds in this dreadful category are notable July fire-sale candidates like the Dodgers, Marlins and Astros.If the Reds falter, it will probably be because of its recent inability to transition from starter to Chapman. Of course, it’s worth mentioning that if the starting pitching can remain healthy, Tony the Tiger Cingrani could make for an exceptional 8th inning arm. I’m still convinced they should deal for a late inning arm, but with the return of Marshall hopefully drawing near, the pen could get the boost it’s needed.

Jun 18, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

2) St. Louis Cardinals – The best starting rotation ERA in all of baseball is complemented by the second best offense in all of baseball. But before we name this team MLB’s Lex Luger, let’s examine the arms. Adam Wainwright is Adam Wainwright. He and his 2.37 ERA will get no guff in this space. He’s made 15 starts, 13 have been quality. That’s the difference between him and potential ace rookie Shelby Miller. Miller has a better ERA (2.08) but also has just seven quality starts in fourteen outings. The rookie has been stellar thus far. You do have to wonder if the second half will come just as easy as the first did once tape circulates enough dugouts. It’s only the 19th of June, but already this month’s he allowed more runs, surrendered more walks and more home runs than previous months. Waccha and the other twenty-some odd rookies will be under the same “tape circulating” umbrella.For having the best ERA in baseball, it’s important to note that St. Louis’ bullpen leaves more to be desired. Their ‘pen boasts the 23rd best bullpen ERA while only four other teams have a bullpen that’s been hit at a higher average than the Cardinals (.264). But while these bullpen figures are disheartening, recall the’pen has only nine losses. Oddly enough, the Cardinals actually have one more blown save than the Reds.

3) Pittsburgh Pirates – Exemplify the tire analogy better than either of the aforementioned. Before the All Star break last year, the Pirates pitching had the 5th best ERA in baseball (3.47). In the second half of the season, they were 21st (4.29). What happened? Tread wore to the wire. The before and afters are too revealing. They allowed nearly 50 runs more in the second half. Guys like McDonald and Burnett were virtually bald by the time the season had ended.

The Pirates must have known as much. Adding Wandy Rodriguez last year was a noble effort to keep the team alive, but Francisco Liriano has been an exceptional addition thus far. And what’s really scary about this team is the fact that rotation staples like Burnett, McDonald and Karstens are still on the disabled list. Also, is Pittsburgh not slowly becoming a land of resurrection for pitchers? Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, AJ Burnett – all starters reinventing themselves in Pittsburgh. The Pirates rotation is loaded with talent, arguably more than the Reds. St. Louis may boast the best ERA in baseball, but the Pirates have the best opposing batting average in the league. People do not hit this team well.

Jun 7, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Francisco Liriano (47) pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The bullpen is simply stellar. It’s almost as good, if not better, than the bullpen that ended last year with a better reliever ERA than any other team (Reds). The only reason I’d sweat this bullpen is its workload. It has the second most innings pitched in all of baseball. And as we’ve already discussed, pitchers, like tires, will wear down. Plenty of evidence to support this too. Last year, just three teams in the top ten of bullpens innings pitched made the playoffs. While one managed to win a one-game Wild Card contest, none advanced. In 2011, precisely none of the top 13 teams in bullpen innings pitched made the post season. In 2010, just two of the top ten teams in bullpen innings pitched advanced to the post season – the Reds were one of them, they didn’t win a game.

All things considered, here is my list of the pitching most likely to falter in the NL Central:

1) St. Louis Cardinals – Though I’m picking them first to falter, it doesn’t mean I’m picking them to lose the division. As extremely vital as pitching is to success, this team employs an American League offense that can actually nullify three-four run innings surrendered by its pitching staff. Just check the numbers already – the bullpen numbers are less than impressive, but it doesn’t surrender many losses. Still, considering the amount of rookies succeeding right now, it has to be safe to assume that batters may eventually adjust to these foreign arms. But with guys like Westbrook and Lynn literally keeping teams to three runs or less seemingly every single start, it may not matter.

2) Cincinnati Reds – Because I have to write “if” in front of “Johnny Cueto stays healthy” now, it’s not unfair to say they’re more likely to falter than Pittsburgh. Losing Cueto immediately demotes this rotation from class of MLB to solid staff.

Mat Latos is a phenomenal young talent, but last night should have demonstrated his inability to handle adversity like a true ace does. His frustration still admittedly gets the better of him. He physically reacts too much still to pitch through bad umpiring or unfavorable conditions in general.Don’t take that the wrong way. He has the potential to be an ace in this game for a long time. But he isn’t there yet. The bullpen is highly suspect to criticism. Even safe options like Sam LeCure have yet to demonstrate an ability to effectively and consistently hold leads. Broxton, Parra, Ondrusek – pick your poison. It only resembles a shell of the same bullpen that ended last year with the best reliever ERA.

3) Pittsburgh Pirates – Why is this pitching staff most unlikely to falter? Its depth is insane. The Pirates are hanging right in the race, all while the team’s ace, the team’s two guy, Rodriguez and even certain starter like Karstens aren’t even pitching right now – they’re all disabled. I point to the bullpen having a load of innings; however, when you have that much depth outside the starting rotation, you can make room for them in the bullpen. To their credit, the Pirates have addressed its pitching’s propensity to wear out. While the bullpen workload may be worrisome now, there are simply too many good arms that will be able fill in whenever asked to.

May 26, 2013; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Kyuji Fujikawa (11) pitches during the ninth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The Cubs defeated the Reds 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago Cubs

One of the Cubbies off-season signees was Kyuji Fujikawa. Chicago inked the legendary Japanese closer to a two-year, $9MM deal. In the series against the Reds, Fujikawa’s elbow popped as he delivered a pitch to Joey Votto. This is according to Cubs GM Jed Hoyer via Paul Sullivan’s Twitter. Now, Fujikawa is done for the season as Tommy John surgery will be performed.

(H/T: MLB Trade Rumors)

Milwaukee Brewers

So the Brewers are really struggling this season and a by-product of such is the calling for manager Ron Roenicke to be relieved of his duties as their manager. And as Benjamin Orr of Reviewing the Brew notes: “The number one rule of typical sports fans seems to be always blame the manager or one of the coaches if the team is performing poorly.”

Oh, do we ever know about that in Cincinnati, Benjamin. Do we ever.

But Orr says RRR should be a little more in the clear while pitching coach Rick Kranitz isn’t receiving his share of the blame.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Buccos bullpen has been lethal this season. There’s no other way to put it. So lethal that the unit now has been dubbed the “Shark Tank”. With its performance thus far in 2013, it is one well-earned moniker.

Rum Bunter’s Tom Smith tells us of the numbers, the arms and a growing concern.

St. Louis Cardinals

You can make as many references to Cards rookie Michael Wacha and Pac-Man as you want, but one thing you must include is how impressive he was in his MLB debut just last evening. Redbird Rants’ Daniel Solzman has the details from Wacha’s game.

A four and a half hour rain delay, too?

Look a the standings. Not just in the division, but for all of baseball. St. Louis (30-16) has MLB’s best record. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh (29-18) share baseball’s third best record. The Texas Rangers (30-17) is the team that breaks the NLC stronghold. Texas owns baseball’s largest division lead at 5.5 games.

The update starts with the Cubs…

May 22, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; So Alfonso Soriano is tired of losing. If he had agreed to the trade, he could be in San Francisco. (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Chicago Cubs

We know that the majority of folk who are not Cubs fans cite the words “Cubs suck” on a daily basis. Well, seeing as the Cubbies are in the cellar of the division, those in agreement may grow, but there is a slight bit of light.

How’s that? They’re only a half-game behind the struggling Milwaukee Brewers. More on the Brewers in a bit.

That light could fade as Chicago hits GABP for a three-game series against our beloved Redlegs. The Reds have eon 9 of the last 10 games between these two teams including 5 of the 6 this season. The losing is grating on one Alfonso Soriano.

Wait. During last year’s trade deadline-mania, wasn’t there a potential deal that could have sent Soriano to the Giants? If Soriano is frustrated by the losses (as Carrie Muskat of MLB.com notes), why did he nix that deal? He would only go to one West Coast team: the Dodgers. That is according to an August 2012 note from Phil Rogers.

Considering the state of things in LA right now, he would be in the same situation only with a better record.

Milwaukee Brewers

Yesterday, Reviewing the Brew’s Lou Olsen went through a bit of pain to bring this to our attention…

Well the last month has had almost nothing good, but there has been plenty of bad and ugly. As of this morning (05/23) the team is 9-23 since the last Brewers Banalities installment. Essentially, they have won 9 games in the past month. That is so bad that I am pretty sure Clint Eastwood would rather team up with an orangutan then the Brewers.

One issue has been the Brewers starting rotation. Milwaukee starters own a combined record of 11-19, an ERA of 5.28 along with a WHIP that reads 1.498. The Reds added to that during their last homestand. Cincy outscored the Brewers 22-11 in sweeping the three games.

Now, the Pirates are coming into Miller Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Reds fans note certain bats that are “struggling”, but the Pirates have a few in their fold, too. Tom Smith from Rum Bunter informs us that the Pirates offense needs to “come to life”.

In a video interview I did prior to the Brewers visiting GABP (which can be found on BRM’s home page), I stated that I thought if the Pirates got the arms in the right frame of mind, they would be a difficult team to face. Scratch that as the bats have not produced.

Hmm… Strange thing is that the Buccos head to Miller Park with the same record as the Reds and their overall offensive numbers aren’t that far from what the Reds’ bats have produced.

St. Louis Cardinals

For every pitcher that goes down, the Redbirds sprouts another. Redbird Rants states that the newest addition to the Cards rotation is Tyler Lyons. All Lyons did in his debut was go 7 innings and allowed one whole run. One.

Starters Chris Carpenter (who began the season on the DL), Jake Westbook, Jaime Garcia are all on the DL. Carpenter has shown positive signs during his rehab. It is unknown when Westbrook will reappear. Garcia’s 2013 is done due to needing surgery. Closer Jason Motte, done for the season. Fernando Salas is on the DL as well.

No worries by the Arch. They score enough, but will it eventually catch up to them?