May 19, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce (32) is congratulated by bench coach Chris Speier (35) after hitting home run in the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Whatever you want to call him, this is the Bruce we love to see come to the plate. More confident, keener eye, and above all run producer.

In this hitting streak Bruce is showing a slash line of .400/.417/.889/1.306. This includes 18 H, 5 HR, 7 2B and 14 RBI. Oh, and only 10 strikeouts, which as you can clearly see is less than one per game. Although he still leads the league in whiffs, it is attributable to his 48 in the first 33 games.

His 16 doubles leads the National League after the first quarter of the 2013 season. His season batting average is now a respectable .284. During his recent ride on the roller coaster, Bruce has failed to drive in a run only twice in the 11 games. In four of them he has driven in at least two runs, and has had multiple hits in six.

If you have watched the Reds for the past few years, you know that this metamorphosis is not uncommon at all. It will occur two or three times a year, and when it does he usually wins MLB awards: player of the month, week, etc. We have learned, yet not accepted the fact that we must take the bad rides with the good.

The team is also winning while he is performing in his potent mode. In the current hitting streak the Reds are 8-3 which is roughly 73 percent. I’ll take that anytime!

In games when he gets at least one hit, the Reds are 24-11. When he is hitless the team has won only three games thus far. On Bruce’s multi-hit games they have a record of 12-3. I am not saying that “so goes Bruce, so go the Reds.” But the win column sure seems to move in an upward trajectory while he is Jekyll and not Jay Hyde.

Bruce had a similar 11-game streak going in May of 2012. On those games he batted .415 with 7 HR and 14 RBI. In 2011 he had a terrific 14-game run (not a hitting streak) where he batted .417 with 9 HR and 22 batted in.

As a Reds’ fan all you can do is enjoy it when it comes, because when she ends, she ends suddenly. God bless Jay Bruce and God bless the Cincinnati Reds.

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May 16, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce (32) connects for a two run RBI double in the tenth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The Red won 5-3 in ten inning

First off, I’d like to apologize for not posting this column last week. I was recovering from Wisdom Teeth Extraction surgery and didn’t feel like I could write to the best of my ability. The time-sensitive nature of this piece also makes it hard to write too far in advance. But, we’re here this week and that’s all that matters. The last two weeks have been good on the Reds, even after tough series against the Phillies and Braves, as they swept both the Brewers and Marlins. Keep in mind that the Reds rotation is in a bit of a flux right now, with Johnny Cueto returning and Tony Cingrani getting sent down. The rotation is tentative at this point, so it could end up being different from what is here. Nothing is really set at this point. So, without further ado, here are the Reds upcoming games for the week:

May 20th: CIN @ NYM — Johnny Cueto vs. Shaun Marcum

May 21st: CIN @ NYM — Mike Leake vs. Jon Niese

May 22nd: CIN @ NYM — Mat Latos vs. Matt Harvey

May 24th: CHC @ CIN — Travis Wood vs. Homer Bailey

May 25th: CHC @ CIN — Scott Feldman vs. Bronson Arroyo

May 26th: CHC @ CIN — Matt Garza vs. Johnny Cueto

Position Player Recommendations 

1. Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce continued his hot streak last week in a big way. As of Saturday, he hit .476/.500/.952 with 2 homers and 8 RBI, including a big 2 run homer off of tough lefty Cliff Lee for the week. As I predicted, facing off against the Brewers really seemed to set Bruce off, and he’s capitalized in a big way. Next week, Bruce will take the field in New York’s Citi Field, as well as good old Great American Ballpark. Predictably, Bruce has seen his fair share of struggles in Citi Field over the past 3 years, as he’s hit just .194/.250/.500 there, albeit with 3 home runs. Bruce has hit relatively well against the 3 pitchers the Reds will face, however, as he is 5-19 against them, with 2 homers and 6 RBIs against them. As for the pitchers that the Cubs will throw up there, Bruce has never faced Scott Feldman before. However, he has done well against Travis Wood in his career, going 2-5 with 2 homers off of him. Bruce has also hit modestly well against Matt Garza as well.

It’s easy to look at Bruce’s BABIP, which is an inflated .381, and assume that his numbers are flukey because of a high BABIP. However, we also have to consider how exactly Bruce is hitting the ball. Bruce’s line drive rate of 31.6% is second only to James Loney in all of baseball. Hitters who have a high line drive rate tend to be among the best in baseball, as Loney (who leads the MLB in hitting), Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, David Wright, and Austin Jackson are all among this list, and all are having remarkable years .These hitters also have something else in common- most of them have an inflated BABIP. Loney’s is .398, Mauer’s is .450, Votto’s is .402, Wright’s is .349, and Jackson’s is .336. The numbers from 2012 also follow suit as Dexter Fowler, who led baseball in line drive rate in 2012, also posted a .390 BABIP. In fact, aside from Freddie Freeman, everybody in the top 10 posted a BABIP of over .320, with most in the .340-.360 range.

So, what does this all mean? Well, the trajectory of a line drive allows it to fall in for a hit more so than a flyball, groundball, or popup. Hitters who can consistently hit line drives are rewarded with high BABIPs and, usually, high batting averages and lots of doubles. This, apart from batting average, which sits at a modest .275 for Bruce, completely describes how Bruce has been hitting this year. Jay Bruce is tied with Gerardo Parra, AJ Pollock, and Matt Carpenter for the NL lead in doubles with 14. What does all this ultimately say about Jay Bruce? The data would seem to indicate that Bruce is hitting the ball better than ever this year. He’s seeing the ball well, which is allowing him to drive the ball better than in years past. Has Bruce’s hot streak been a product of at least a little luck? Undoubtedly. Will Bruce probably keep driving balls at this rate? Probably not. However, if he can, Bruce could finally break out, hitting around .280 with a ton of doubles and 25-30 home runs, which would be a career year for Bruce.

Overall, he’s an easy start next week. Bruce is a smart play when he’s hot no matter what the matchups say, really. The fact that the matchups are positive is just another sign that this should be a big week for Bruce. Bruce may never hit .300, and he might never be a hitter who can come up in the clutch consistently. However, he’s been a solid hitter so far this year (May in particular) so he should be in your lineup.

Week Eight Line Prediction: .350 average, 2 HR, 6 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Todd Frazier

What happened to Todd Frazier? After starting the year off strong, he’s virtually fallen off of a cliff. He hasn’t had a hit in nearly 20 at bats while striking out in nearly half of those. He simply looks lost at the plate right now, and it’s almost physically painful to watch. Fantasy owners are starting to lose hope in Todd, as his ownership has fallen from 100% to 97.7% in the past week, and could fall even further if he continues to flounder at the plate. And really, who can blame fantasy owners? He’s been an absolute black hole in fantasy lineups during that stretch.

The question is whether Frazier’s struggles are luck-based, or if he really has been this bad. His BABIP of .250 on the year is definitely below average, but not nearly low enough to compensate for hitting .214. However, a closer look at his numbers reveals the main problem. At Great American Ballpark this season, he’s been a fine hitter, hitting .293/.379/.587 with 6 homers and 19 RBI. However, on the road, he’s hit a paltry .123/.205/.169 with no homers and 6 RBI. Looking at Frazier’s road BABIP, which sits at .170, it’s apparent that he’s been getting really unlucky on the road for some reason. This could partially explain the awful numbers.

But, there’s no denying that Frazier is in a funk right now, luck-based or not. For next week, he should be sitting. Eric Chavez, Chris Johnson, Mike Moustakas, and Juan Francisco could all make good subs for him.

Week Eight Line Prediction: .200 average, 0 HRs, 3 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

3. Shin Soo Choo

How good has Shin Soo Choo been this year? He leads the Reds in home runs, leads baseball in OBP, leads the NL in runs scored, and has 19 RBI from the leadoff spot. He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. Although May hasn’t been as good to Choo as April was (except in home runs, where it’s been better already), he has still been solid. He should be starting no matter what at this point, even with his difficulties against lefties (.149 average against.)

Week Eight Line Prediction: .300 average, 1 HR, 3 RBI.

Pitching Recommendations:

1. Johnny Cueto

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Ah, finally. Johnny Cueto, the Reds’ staff ace, has returned. As good as Mat Latos has been this year, Johnny Cueto is the bona fide ace of the Reds pitching staff. He also happens to have dual start eligibility this week against 2 offensively challenged clubs. The question isn’t with Cueto’s talent level, as is the case with many other starters, but with how he has recovered from his injury. If he’s 100%, he should be a force in fantasy baseball this week. If he’s not quite 100%, he should still be good but not great.

Cueto couldn’t have a better environment for his return. The Mets are 21st in runs scored this season, and he’ll be pitching in the expansive Citi Field. Over the past 3 seasons, Cueto has only started one game at Citi Field (somehow), but was spectacular in that game, going 7 innings while giving up 1 run on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts. Even with its fences drawn in, Citi Field does not relent home runs very easily, which will help cushion the blow in the event that Cueto’s stuff isn’t terribly sharp on his return. Cueto has also dominated the Mets since 2010, going 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA over that span. Cueto’s first start back couldn’t be more perfect.

His second start against the offensively challenged Cubs should also be a good matchup for him. He has pitched a whopping 61.2 innings over the past 3 years against Chicago, and has only allowed 12 earned runs over that span, which comes out to a 1.75 record accompanied by a 6-1 record. Cueto has simply dominated the Cubs, and that was made even more apparent last season, when he went 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 4-0 record in 4 starts against them last year. He will be pitching in Great American Ballpark, so if his stuff isn’t sharp there could be some homers. However, as this is his second start back, I think he’ll do just fine.

Overall, there’s very little risk in starting Cueto next week, even if he is coming straight from the DL.

Week Eight Line Prediction: 1 win, 0 losses, 13 IP, 7 Ks, 5 ER, 3.46 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Mat Latos

While Cueto is no doubt the Reds ace, Latos has been an incredibly solid pitcher so far this season. He goes against the Mets next week, which is both a positive and a negative for Latos. It’s a positive because Latos has done quite well against the Mets over his career, going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA. However, it’s also a negative because the Reds will be squaring off against Matt Harvey, who has been absolutely unhittable this year (seriously, look at his numbers, it’s ridiculous.) The offense tends to fall asleep when Latos pitches (except for when they lit up Hiram Burgos for 12 runs) and facing Harvey in a pitcher’s park won’t help anything at all. I think that Latos will pitch a solid game, but still take the loss due to Harvey’s dominance. If that is indeed the case, it will be Latos’ first regular season loss since last August, en route to the best winning percentage in the NL since the start of last year.

Week Eight Line Prediction: 0 wins, 1 loss, 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER, 2.57 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

3. Bronson Arroyo

No.

Week Eight Line Prediction: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 3 Ks, 4 ER, 6.00 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit. Drop.

4. Homer Bailey

Funny enough, Homer Bailey has been the Reds’ most valuable pitcher so far this season by WAR. His 1.2 mark leads the Reds staff, and is tied for 22nd in baseball. A quick look at the numbers reveals why. His FIP and xFIP are 2.89 and 3.09 respectively. That’s 15th and 13th best in baseball. Bailey has also struck out a good amount of hitters, as his 9.12 K/9 would indicate. Most importantly, though, is that these numbers are sustainable, as his BABIP indicates that he’s actually gotten slightly unlucky, with a .297 mark. This really could be a career year for Homer.

Bailey will also have the privilege of facing the Cubs, who he pitched well against last year, with a 3-0 record and 3.12 ERA. Don’t let the W/L record fool you, Bailey has been great this year. Start him.

Week Eight Line Predictions: 1 win, 0 losses, 7 IP, 8 Ks, 3 ER, 3.86 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

5. Mike Leake

It’s official- Leake is the 5th starter. Still don’t want him anywhere near my team.

Week Eight Line Predictions: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 3 Ks, 4 ER, 6.00 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

Week Eight W/L Predictions:

May 20th (CIN @ NYM): W, 5-3

May 21st (CIN @ NYM): W, 9-5

May 22nd (CIN @ NYM): L, 2-0

May 24th (CHC @ CIN): W, 6-4

May 25th (CHC @ CIN): L, 6-2

May 26th (CHC @ CIN): W, 3-1

Predicted record: 4-2.

Thank you for reading! Comments are appreciated. 

May 25, 2011; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Nick Masset (40) during the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Reds 5-4 in 19 innings. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

When was the last time you have received a serious update concerning the condition of the Reds’ reliever? The man has not thrown a pitch in a baseball game since September 27, 2011. Probably has a little ring rust.

In my prognostications for the 2013 Reds, I wrote that I didn’t feel Masset would pitch at all this season. I will go a step further now and predict that Nick will never throw a baseball in a MLB game for the Cincinnati Reds again, like never.

Are you saying that you think Masset is no good Cliff? No, I didn’t say that, read carefully.

He has been hurt, rested, re-hurt, 15-day DL’d and now 60-day DL’d. Let’s look at the facts.

From 2009 until 2011 nobody in MLB pitched in more games than did Masset. Chicago Cubs’ former closer, Carlos Marmol tied him with 231 to lead the free world. That averages 77 games per season. Good on ya’ Nicholas.

As a setup man he was excellent, as a closer, not so good. In fact, in save opportunities he is 4-18 in his 6-year MLB career. That is not good and yes, you may quote me on that. I submit to you that 22.2 percent is not much good in anything when the goal is 100. Failing four times out of five will not cut the mustard for any hotdog.

The Reds are currently blessed with an excellent bullpen. Having probably the best season of any bullpen member, Sam LeCure can be used for long work, a few innings or to setup a closer. He could even be used as a spot starter if the need would arise. Other than the best season part, the same could be said of Alfredo Simon. J.J. Hoover can give you several good innings and is capable of saving a game, even bailing out the closer, ask Aroldis Chapman. Sorry Chappy, it had to be said, even if I still think you are one of the best two closers in the National League.

Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton are both extraordinary setup men and again, both have saved games before. What do I say about Logan Ondrusek? Moving on.

Where would you put Masset if he suddenly healed-up? Right, no place. Nowhere to go, no saves to blow. At best, if he makes a return, the Reds could use him for fodder to fill the cannon of a deal to land a good hitting shortstop.

Here is Nick’s career numbers:

Statistics from Baseball-Reference.com

If you happen to see Nick, tell him to phone home.

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