There is a three-team deal in the works. The Reds, Cleveland Indians and Arizona Dimondbacks are negotiating a deal which could involve as many as 7-9 players. Per a Ken Rosenthal tweet, part of this swapping would see the Reds land Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald. The Tribe get Drew Stubbs and a pitcher from the D’backs rumored to be either Trevor Bauer or Tyler Skaggs. Makes sense since Arizona inked Brandon McCarthy, but can’t see the D’backs letting either of those two go. The D’backs would obtain Didi Gregorius.

I’m guessing more will find new homes before the dust settles on this one…

Jul 23, 2012; Cleveland, OH, USA; Choo hits a two-run home run in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field. (David Richard-USA TODAY Sports)

Most see this trade as providing that bridge between this year and next year when Billy Hamilton will presumably be ready to take over center field. Yes, it is expected that Choo will play center instead of his usual position of right field.

While I like obtaining Choo, I will miss Stubbs and his defense in particular. I would go so far as to say Stubbs is among MLB”s top 5 defensive center fielders.

For those lamenting this deal because of either issues concerning team control or the fact that Michael Bourn is still out there, I have an opinion on both.

Giving up team control isn’t always a bad thing. With the Reds wanting to win (and win now according to many in baseball circles), this move solidifies that Reds are willing to make a move to win now. Trading away three years of control on Stubbs and six years on Didi may seem like a bad move, but it really isn’t. Zack Cozart is firmly the #1 choice at shortstop of the Reds front office. He can field, make no mistake about it. He can hit and I expect him to put up better numbers in 2013 than he did this last season. Most 2013 projections I have seen bear that.

Yes, projections are just that…

Stubbs had grown to almost be a villain to many Reds fans due to his strikeout numbers, but he has his supporters. I can say from experience that he’s as personable as any athlete I’ve met. Soft spoken and polite. Don’t see that much these days.

The other is a case of Choo versus Bourn. There are differences are stolen bases and defense. Yes, Walt and Company are taking a big gamble if they choose to put Choo in center. He’s only played there 10 games in his career. Choo won’t swipe 50 bags, but he is a threat to run, and sometimes, that’s all you need.

To put this a little more in the open from an offensive point of view…

Career triple slash:
Bourn – .272/.339/.365
Choo – .289/.381/.465

That’s a career OPS of .847 for Choo. Only one player currently on the Reds roster can surpass that: Joey Votto (.968).

Career SO% and BB%:
Bourn – 20.2% and 8.8%
Choo – 21.4% and 11.4%

Last season, these rates were almost identical for the pair. Bourn’s were 10.0% and 22.0% while Choo’s were 10.6% and 21.9%. Yet, Bourn was/is begging for a deal for five years and at around $100MM.

The other negative: Choo is represented by Scott Boras meaning he is pretty much a rental. Suffice to say, Choo will be a Red for only one year. Boras loves his clients to test the market, although now that I think about it, it might be time to re-evaluate that approach.

I love the offense Choo brings. Here’s how 2013′s batting order stacks…

Choo
BP
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Frazier
Cozart
Hanigan/Mesoraco
Pitcher’s spot

Like it lots.

I’m not in love with the defensive stance.

Chris Heisey may get even more late-inning work in next season.

UPDATE: Seems like the specifics are…The Reds acquire from Indians Choo, Donald and cash for Stubbs and Gregorius. The Indians send Gregorius, Lars Anderson and Tony Sipp to Arizona and acquire Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw from the D’backs.

Can we please see what’s behind curtain #2? Or did we initially want #1? Either way, that may take a while…

A few days ago over on ESPN.com, Jason A. Churchill was stating there was a potential three-way trade involving the Reds, Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays (Insider only link). You’ve most likely read or heard of this. The Reds would land Dexter Fowler, the Rockies could acquire either Jeremy Hellickson or James Shields, and the Rays would have their hands on a catcher in Devin Mesoraco.

Well, this isn’t happening now, as “constructed”, in light of last night’s late news that the Rays had dealt Shields, Wade Davis and a PTBNL to the Royals in exchange for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi (who was part of the Zack Greinke trade), Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. That trade has sent Royals fans, shall we say, screaming and cursing at Royals GM Dayton Moore for the transaction.

There’s also the fact that Mesoraco is going nowhere according to a John Fay tweet. In other words, this potential deal had not much spark.

There was another that emerged.

Sep 27, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox center fielder Alejandro De Aza hits a single against the Tampa Bay Rays during the fifth inning at US Cellular Field. (Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports)

The Reds had apparently contacted the Chicago White Sox in regards to center fielder Alejandro De Aza. This is according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. To see the full article, you only need to register for the site. No Reds players are named within the article.

I find both of these intriguing. I have previously stated that the issue with Fowler (to me anyway) isn’t so much his home/away splits. His numbers at Coors Field are nice, but GABP isn’t exactly a pitcher-friendly park either. You would see some slippage, but not to the extent other teams would. No, it’s more of what to do with Fowler once Billy Hamilton is ready.

And on De Aza, you have a player coming off his first full year in the majors. And you have the same situation with De Aza as you do with Fowler: what to do when Hamilton is considered big league ready.

Both Fowler and De Aza are arbitration eligible and will not be free agents until 2016.

Sure, Hamilton’s no sure bet. No prospect is. Not even Wil Myers is for that matter. That’s what could make either Fowler or De Aza nice adds. One, you could have Hamilton in Louisville for the entire season. Two, if Hamilton does indeed show that he needs more time, you have someone already to cover the position both defensively and offensively.

I still prefer Fowler only because he has more time in the league and more of a proven track record. Fowler, 26, is two years younger than De Aza, 28.

De Aza would be the less expensive acquisition as far as money goes. He is entering his first year of arbitration and Tim Dierkes on MLB Trade Rumors estimates De Aza should land a contract for $1.7MM as compared to Folwer’s potential payday of $4MM.

The other part of the “price” would be what the Reds would have to part with in order to acquire either. There were those bits about Homer Bailey being part of a deal with the Rockies. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports was so bold as to say Mike Leake and Drew Stubbs could be the right price.

Not everyone in Rockies land is on board with that. I kind of figured that would be the case.

As I previously stated, no names have been bantered about relating to a possible De Aza trade. With the White Sox rumored to be moving Gavin Floyd to any team not getting Zach Greinke, you have to believe that if Chicago does deal Floyd, an arm heading to the Pale Hose would, could, should be a given. You know the names: Mike Leake, Tony Cingrani and Daniel Corcino. Maybe Bailey’s as well.

Add this to your memory bank, too…

In a sense, Leake is a beneficiary of the Royals-Rays trade. How’s that? Seeing as he’s viewed as the same type of pitcher as Davis (go to Davis’s page on Baseball Reference and look under the “Similarity Scores” section. Leake is the first name listed.), his stock may have slightly risen. Davis is viewed by many as a back-end of the rotation guy, a 4/5 if you will, probably more of a 5 to some. As is Leake. He performed that exact role for Cincinnati in 2012. Not every rotation has guy in that particular role that owns three years of experience as does Leake and Davis even though Davis was in the bullpen this past season.

Also, if Leake or even Bailey is moved (and I am not saying that either should be), and if Aroldis Chapman does struggle as a starter, Chapman can move back to the ‘pen (a move that could completely break my heart) and you have Cingrani or Corcino in the wings.

A few “ifs” in there, huh? Point is, the Reds have other cards to play even among its own roster.

While many of us were looking for this one-year gap (even I fell into that), we may be somewhat missing the boat here. While we all dream of seeing Billy run (and run a lot!), we are neglecting the opposite end of the spectrum, and that’s what GM Walt Jocketty is doing here. If Hamilton needs more than one year or he doesn’t quite measure up, the Reds will already have a lead-off guy for multiple years. If Hamilton does prosper (and I honestly think he will), the Reds have another one of those nice problems…

Too many players for a certain position.

(A big BRM hat tip to our Facebook friend Jeff for some insight on this post.)

Oct 10, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (4) reacts to striking out during the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants in game four of the 2012 NLDS at Great American Ballpark. The Giants defeated the Reds 8-3. (Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports)

It’s a matter of cause and effect. If you let Ryan Ludwick walk, you are essentially handing the clean-up role to Brandon Phillips, the guy that most Reds fans were begging to hit lead-off while Dusty Baker was running Drew Stubbs out to snag that elusive first out. The ramifications of not signing Ludwick are crystal – without Ryan Ludwick, Brandon Phillips is the only clean-up hitter this team has.

Some readers may be convinced that Jay Bruce can fill the void. A noble concept, and for what everyone is expecting this kid to be, it wouldn’t be far fetched; however, we’ve seen Jay Bruce attempt to protect Joey Votto and the results have been less than flattering.

Jay Bruce has had 396 plate appearances as the cleanup guy. He’s got a .236 BA and a .326 OBP to show for it. That’s not to suggest that Bruce won’t one day become the cleanup, but if the Reds plan on improving upon their 2012 campaign, they can’t have a question mark at this vital of a role.

Aug 24, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Ludwick prepares to bat during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park. (Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports)

Without Bruce, the de facto cleanup man becomes Brandon Phillips. In 2023 cleanup plate appearances, Phillips boasts a .282 batting average and a .331 OBP. He’s driven in just shy of 300 runs from that spot. Compare him to Ryan Ludwick, who has 1307 plate appearances batting fourth. He’s hitting .262 with a .335 OBP. But consider the body of work. Despite the fact that Ludwick has 716 fewer plate appearances batting 4th, he has only ten fewer walks than Phillips, just 14 fewer home runs, 70 fewer RBIs, plus, his OBP is higher.

I think Ryan Ludwick is the quintessential cleanup man, especially in a ballpark that can resurrect a power hitter’s career, provided the power hitter can put the ball in play. The problem is, if you sign Ludwick, that more than likely relegates Brandon Phillips to the lead-off. In 691 career plate appearances leading off, Brandon Phillips sports just a .265 average and a .325 OBP. Drew Stubb’s career OBP leading off? .320.

I want Ryan Ludwick in the left corner of GABP’s tiny outfield, but I want guys on base for Joey Votto even more. I won’t pretend to know the Reds’ budget, but if it’s between having Ryan Ludwick cleanup, which pushes BP to lead-off, and letting Ryan walk to let BP cleanup, which allows the Reds to sink money into a real leadoff guy, I’m thanking Ryan Ludwick for his services and wishing him well in his future endeavors.

@GroteT