March 5, 2013; Tempe, AZ, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mike Leake (44) throws against the Los Angeles Angels in the first inning during a spring training game at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The 25-year old may not have twirled a gem, but he did throw his third quality start of the season, as the Reds blanked the Miami Marlins 4-0 powered by two homers by Shin-Soo Choo. He needed help from Sean Marshall getting out of trouble in the seventh. The two pitchers were joined by Sam LeCure and Aroldis Chapman in throwing an 11-hit shutout at the Miami Marlins. It was the fourth shutout for the Reds pitchers this season.

The 11 hits in a shutout is three shy of the record for a nine inning game. The Cleveland Indians got 14 hits while being white-washed in 1928 by the Washington Senators.

Leake (3-2) picked up the win and lowered his ERA to 3.72, trimming that statistic by over half a run. All Reds’ starters have ERA’s under 4 which is incredible these days.

Cueto is expected to start Monday against the New York Mets. His start inconveniently is on the same day that Leake would be starting, if everything had gone according to Hoyle (that is an old saying, so if you haven’t heard it, forgive me but I like it).

ESPN scheduling shows that Mat Latos is penciled to start the second game in the series in New York. At this juncture it is difficult reading minds, so we are left to wonder if Leake is getting bumped by southpaw Tony Cingrani, will miss a start or pitch on a couple days extra rest. It would be unlikely, in the opinion of this writer that Leake would be sent to Louisville.

Since his rookie season Leake has started a total of 86 games. The Reds record in games in which he started is 48 up and 38 down. Of those 86 games, 51 of them have been quality starts. That is 59.3 percent which is not too shabby. Those 51 quality starts rank him 23rd in the National League. Teammates Mat Latos is 9th in the league with 65, Cueto is 12th with 61, and Bronson Arroyo is 13th with 60. Homer Bailey falls behind Leake in 30th place with 47.

More impressive is the fact that he has more QS than Adam Wainwright, Jordan Zimmermann, Kyle Lohse, Chris Carpenter, Barry Zito and Jake Westbrook, among many others.

In those quality starts his overall record is 27-7 with a very trim ERA of 2.18.

At this stage of Cingrani’s career it would be disingenuous for the Reds’ management to choose him over the more experienced Leake who has been tried by fire.

Agree or disagree? Talk to me.

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Sept 15, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Tony Cingrani (52) throws during the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The latest for us here in Redland, is actually two-fold. What to do with Tony Cincingrani (sic) and who leaves town when Chris Heisey returns to the team.

For the purpose of this piece I want to focus on the pitching.

Cincingrani has proven beyond a doubt that he is a major league pitcher. There should be no debate about that. The debate is officially opened when you say what should happen to him when Reds’ ace, Johnny Cueto comes back from rehab assignments.

I have read everything, including but not limited to using a six-man rotation; sending Mike Leake to Louisville (he does have options); and even converting Leake to a shortstop where he played when he wasn’t pitching at Arizona State.

Cincingrani started with a bang on April 18 against the Miami Marlins. He pitched five innings, picked up the win, allowed only five hits, an earned run, three walks and eight strikeouts. Not a quality start, but a very good start, no question about that. Really there were only a couple of downsides to that performance. The first was that it took the rookie 102 pitches to survive five innings. The second is that he was taken yard by Justin Ruggiano. That was a precursor of things to come.

Of his first five MLB starts, he can boast only two quality starts. He is throwing an average of 17.6 pitches per inning. Even with the rough patch Leake has gone through this year, he is just averaging 15.9. Bronson Arroyo gets by on 13.7 P/I. I know that Cincingrani is a strikeout artist and Arroyo isn’t.

Cincingrani is throwing 84 percent heat at an average temperature of 92.8. Leake uses six different pitches and mixes them up pretty well. He throws a fourseam fast ball 4 percent of the time at 91 mph, a sinker 46 percent at 90 mph and a cutter 19 percent at 88 percent. The point I am trying to make here is that when batters catch up to Cincingrani’s fast ball, it probably goes about 410 feet. And in the biggies, they will catch up eventually.

Some have said Cincingrani should stay and go to the bullpen. That is no good. If that happens, somebody else (Ondrusek ?) would have to be demoted. You already have at least two long reliever/spot starters in Sam LeCure and Alfredo Simon, I don’t see a need for another one.

Leake was a number one pick in the 2009 draft and made the parent squad immediately. Cincingrani was the third pick in 2011. Leake is already in his fourth season in MLB and has proven himself to be a fifth starter that most teams would be happy to have. Cingrani will clearly be that himself, but just not yet. He needs more time in the lower level to hone his craft and perhaps learn another pitch or two.

He wasn’t called up to take someone’s job, only to fill a vacancy which he did in a most admirable fashion. Good on ya Tony, seriously.

I mean it isn’t like Lou Gehrig filling in for Wally Pipp and never looking back.
Things need to be placed in proper perspective. If someone else goes down, he comes right back up and fills in again.

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The offseason has been dominated by the question: Should Aroldis Chapman start or close? I’ve written multiple articles here at BRM on the issue, and it has been one of the hot topics on MLB talk shows and speculation circles. Chapman this, Chapman that. I’m not saying the 105MPH-slinging Cuban isn’t worthy of the hype — he is truly a once in a generation player, if not for his accuracy, for his dominance.

But what about Mike Leake? Fans and front office alike are seemingly tossing him aside. We’re treating him like a veteran. Surely since he didn’t have a sub 3.00 ERA last year he can’t possibly ever do it ever. The same people who still believe Homer Bailey’s best days are ahead of him have all but forgotten that Leake is a year younger, and a whole lot less experienced at the big league levels.

The fact about Leake is that he can straight up pitch. Rarely do you see a guy drafted straight to the big league team. In fact, Leake has only pitched 7.1 innings in the minor leagues. You don’t get to the MLB without having solid stuff. And Mike Leake got to the big leagues without any minor league training.

What I’m trying to say is that this kid is still growing. Sure, a 4.58 ERA isn’t exactly desirable now, but we’re forgetting about a few key words: potential, development, promise.

For as much as bloggers (I especially) write off these words, not wanting to rely on them for our “expert analysis”, they still exist. Without potential or development, what’s the use of minor league systems? Did Joey Votto come straight to the big leagues after the draft? Jay Bruce? Todd Frazier?

Oct 10, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mike Leake (44) in the dugout in the fourth inning against the San Francisco Giants in game four of the 2012 NLDS at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

The point is, when comparing him to almost any other ballplayer’s ETA at his age, Mike Leake SHOULD still be in the minors, but he’s holding his own at the major league level. A kid who realistically could still be down in AA or AAA is a part of one of the best rotations in the game.

So why are we asking for his removal? Because one of the two most dominant closers in the game last year can “maybe” start? Because the possibility of having a dominant closer start games for us has us salivating? Probably. Chapman is the sexy answer, and when the sexy answer also has a real possibility of potentially working out, it becomes the “right” answer.

Mike Leake will be on the 25 man roster on Opening Day if the Reds want any chance of touching the World Series. This is true for multiple reasons. For one, we still need a guy to pitch the extra 70-100 innings Chapman will be shut down for. Whether that be at the beginning or the end of the season, we’d be stupid to believe that Leake won’t start at least one game for the redlegs this season. Two, I’m not convinced Chapman is better than Mike Leake as a starter anyway. Reports out of Spring Training say Chapman is a bit wild, and his fastball is seeing a sharp decline in velocity, topping out at around 94MPH. That’s not the exciting 98MPH average we saw last year. That’s not 105. That’s major league average nowadays.

Quietly, Mike Leake is having a pretty good spring. Through 5 innings he’s surrendered one run on six hits and 5 strikeouts. That’s good for a 1.80 ERA. Again, as stated about a thousand times on every blog on the face of the earth, spring training stats don’t mean much. But what they do mean is that Leake is healthy, he’s locating his pitches, and he’s getting some guys out.

My prediction says Mike Leake starts the year in the rotation. The Reds will want to avoid the Stephen Strasburg mess the Nationals had to deal with last year, so they won’t be starting Chapman out from the start. If this isn’t the case, I think Leake still deserves a bullpen spot. He could be good as a long reliever, at least until Chapman is eventually shut down.

There are almost an infinite number of ways the Reds can go from here. But two things are for certain: 1) Mike Leake, right now, is an average Major League starting pitcher, and 2) Aroldis Chapman throws really hard, but only out of the ‘pen.

If you ask me, sometimes Major League average isn’t all that bad.