May 16, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce (32) connects for a two run RBI double in the tenth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The Red won 5-3 in ten inning

First off, I’d like to apologize for not posting this column last week. I was recovering from Wisdom Teeth Extraction surgery and didn’t feel like I could write to the best of my ability. The time-sensitive nature of this piece also makes it hard to write too far in advance. But, we’re here this week and that’s all that matters. The last two weeks have been good on the Reds, even after tough series against the Phillies and Braves, as they swept both the Brewers and Marlins. Keep in mind that the Reds rotation is in a bit of a flux right now, with Johnny Cueto returning and Tony Cingrani getting sent down. The rotation is tentative at this point, so it could end up being different from what is here. Nothing is really set at this point. So, without further ado, here are the Reds upcoming games for the week:

May 20th: CIN @ NYM — Johnny Cueto vs. Shaun Marcum

May 21st: CIN @ NYM — Mike Leake vs. Jon Niese

May 22nd: CIN @ NYM — Mat Latos vs. Matt Harvey

May 24th: CHC @ CIN — Travis Wood vs. Homer Bailey

May 25th: CHC @ CIN — Scott Feldman vs. Bronson Arroyo

May 26th: CHC @ CIN — Matt Garza vs. Johnny Cueto

Position Player Recommendations 

1. Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce continued his hot streak last week in a big way. As of Saturday, he hit .476/.500/.952 with 2 homers and 8 RBI, including a big 2 run homer off of tough lefty Cliff Lee for the week. As I predicted, facing off against the Brewers really seemed to set Bruce off, and he’s capitalized in a big way. Next week, Bruce will take the field in New York’s Citi Field, as well as good old Great American Ballpark. Predictably, Bruce has seen his fair share of struggles in Citi Field over the past 3 years, as he’s hit just .194/.250/.500 there, albeit with 3 home runs. Bruce has hit relatively well against the 3 pitchers the Reds will face, however, as he is 5-19 against them, with 2 homers and 6 RBIs against them. As for the pitchers that the Cubs will throw up there, Bruce has never faced Scott Feldman before. However, he has done well against Travis Wood in his career, going 2-5 with 2 homers off of him. Bruce has also hit modestly well against Matt Garza as well.

It’s easy to look at Bruce’s BABIP, which is an inflated .381, and assume that his numbers are flukey because of a high BABIP. However, we also have to consider how exactly Bruce is hitting the ball. Bruce’s line drive rate of 31.6% is second only to James Loney in all of baseball. Hitters who have a high line drive rate tend to be among the best in baseball, as Loney (who leads the MLB in hitting), Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, David Wright, and Austin Jackson are all among this list, and all are having remarkable years .These hitters also have something else in common- most of them have an inflated BABIP. Loney’s is .398, Mauer’s is .450, Votto’s is .402, Wright’s is .349, and Jackson’s is .336. The numbers from 2012 also follow suit as Dexter Fowler, who led baseball in line drive rate in 2012, also posted a .390 BABIP. In fact, aside from Freddie Freeman, everybody in the top 10 posted a BABIP of over .320, with most in the .340-.360 range.

So, what does this all mean? Well, the trajectory of a line drive allows it to fall in for a hit more so than a flyball, groundball, or popup. Hitters who can consistently hit line drives are rewarded with high BABIPs and, usually, high batting averages and lots of doubles. This, apart from batting average, which sits at a modest .275 for Bruce, completely describes how Bruce has been hitting this year. Jay Bruce is tied with Gerardo Parra, AJ Pollock, and Matt Carpenter for the NL lead in doubles with 14. What does all this ultimately say about Jay Bruce? The data would seem to indicate that Bruce is hitting the ball better than ever this year. He’s seeing the ball well, which is allowing him to drive the ball better than in years past. Has Bruce’s hot streak been a product of at least a little luck? Undoubtedly. Will Bruce probably keep driving balls at this rate? Probably not. However, if he can, Bruce could finally break out, hitting around .280 with a ton of doubles and 25-30 home runs, which would be a career year for Bruce.

Overall, he’s an easy start next week. Bruce is a smart play when he’s hot no matter what the matchups say, really. The fact that the matchups are positive is just another sign that this should be a big week for Bruce. Bruce may never hit .300, and he might never be a hitter who can come up in the clutch consistently. However, he’s been a solid hitter so far this year (May in particular) so he should be in your lineup.

Week Eight Line Prediction: .350 average, 2 HR, 6 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Todd Frazier

What happened to Todd Frazier? After starting the year off strong, he’s virtually fallen off of a cliff. He hasn’t had a hit in nearly 20 at bats while striking out in nearly half of those. He simply looks lost at the plate right now, and it’s almost physically painful to watch. Fantasy owners are starting to lose hope in Todd, as his ownership has fallen from 100% to 97.7% in the past week, and could fall even further if he continues to flounder at the plate. And really, who can blame fantasy owners? He’s been an absolute black hole in fantasy lineups during that stretch.

The question is whether Frazier’s struggles are luck-based, or if he really has been this bad. His BABIP of .250 on the year is definitely below average, but not nearly low enough to compensate for hitting .214. However, a closer look at his numbers reveals the main problem. At Great American Ballpark this season, he’s been a fine hitter, hitting .293/.379/.587 with 6 homers and 19 RBI. However, on the road, he’s hit a paltry .123/.205/.169 with no homers and 6 RBI. Looking at Frazier’s road BABIP, which sits at .170, it’s apparent that he’s been getting really unlucky on the road for some reason. This could partially explain the awful numbers.

But, there’s no denying that Frazier is in a funk right now, luck-based or not. For next week, he should be sitting. Eric Chavez, Chris Johnson, Mike Moustakas, and Juan Francisco could all make good subs for him.

Week Eight Line Prediction: .200 average, 0 HRs, 3 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

3. Shin Soo Choo

How good has Shin Soo Choo been this year? He leads the Reds in home runs, leads baseball in OBP, leads the NL in runs scored, and has 19 RBI from the leadoff spot. He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. Although May hasn’t been as good to Choo as April was (except in home runs, where it’s been better already), he has still been solid. He should be starting no matter what at this point, even with his difficulties against lefties (.149 average against.)

Week Eight Line Prediction: .300 average, 1 HR, 3 RBI.

Pitching Recommendations:

1. Johnny Cueto

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Ah, finally. Johnny Cueto, the Reds’ staff ace, has returned. As good as Mat Latos has been this year, Johnny Cueto is the bona fide ace of the Reds pitching staff. He also happens to have dual start eligibility this week against 2 offensively challenged clubs. The question isn’t with Cueto’s talent level, as is the case with many other starters, but with how he has recovered from his injury. If he’s 100%, he should be a force in fantasy baseball this week. If he’s not quite 100%, he should still be good but not great.

Cueto couldn’t have a better environment for his return. The Mets are 21st in runs scored this season, and he’ll be pitching in the expansive Citi Field. Over the past 3 seasons, Cueto has only started one game at Citi Field (somehow), but was spectacular in that game, going 7 innings while giving up 1 run on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts. Even with its fences drawn in, Citi Field does not relent home runs very easily, which will help cushion the blow in the event that Cueto’s stuff isn’t terribly sharp on his return. Cueto has also dominated the Mets since 2010, going 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA over that span. Cueto’s first start back couldn’t be more perfect.

His second start against the offensively challenged Cubs should also be a good matchup for him. He has pitched a whopping 61.2 innings over the past 3 years against Chicago, and has only allowed 12 earned runs over that span, which comes out to a 1.75 record accompanied by a 6-1 record. Cueto has simply dominated the Cubs, and that was made even more apparent last season, when he went 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 4-0 record in 4 starts against them last year. He will be pitching in Great American Ballpark, so if his stuff isn’t sharp there could be some homers. However, as this is his second start back, I think he’ll do just fine.

Overall, there’s very little risk in starting Cueto next week, even if he is coming straight from the DL.

Week Eight Line Prediction: 1 win, 0 losses, 13 IP, 7 Ks, 5 ER, 3.46 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Mat Latos

While Cueto is no doubt the Reds ace, Latos has been an incredibly solid pitcher so far this season. He goes against the Mets next week, which is both a positive and a negative for Latos. It’s a positive because Latos has done quite well against the Mets over his career, going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA. However, it’s also a negative because the Reds will be squaring off against Matt Harvey, who has been absolutely unhittable this year (seriously, look at his numbers, it’s ridiculous.) The offense tends to fall asleep when Latos pitches (except for when they lit up Hiram Burgos for 12 runs) and facing Harvey in a pitcher’s park won’t help anything at all. I think that Latos will pitch a solid game, but still take the loss due to Harvey’s dominance. If that is indeed the case, it will be Latos’ first regular season loss since last August, en route to the best winning percentage in the NL since the start of last year.

Week Eight Line Prediction: 0 wins, 1 loss, 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER, 2.57 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

3. Bronson Arroyo

No.

Week Eight Line Prediction: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 3 Ks, 4 ER, 6.00 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit. Drop.

4. Homer Bailey

Funny enough, Homer Bailey has been the Reds’ most valuable pitcher so far this season by WAR. His 1.2 mark leads the Reds staff, and is tied for 22nd in baseball. A quick look at the numbers reveals why. His FIP and xFIP are 2.89 and 3.09 respectively. That’s 15th and 13th best in baseball. Bailey has also struck out a good amount of hitters, as his 9.12 K/9 would indicate. Most importantly, though, is that these numbers are sustainable, as his BABIP indicates that he’s actually gotten slightly unlucky, with a .297 mark. This really could be a career year for Homer.

Bailey will also have the privilege of facing the Cubs, who he pitched well against last year, with a 3-0 record and 3.12 ERA. Don’t let the W/L record fool you, Bailey has been great this year. Start him.

Week Eight Line Predictions: 1 win, 0 losses, 7 IP, 8 Ks, 3 ER, 3.86 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

5. Mike Leake

It’s official- Leake is the 5th starter. Still don’t want him anywhere near my team.

Week Eight Line Predictions: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 3 Ks, 4 ER, 6.00 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

Week Eight W/L Predictions:

May 20th (CIN @ NYM): W, 5-3

May 21st (CIN @ NYM): W, 9-5

May 22nd (CIN @ NYM): L, 2-0

May 24th (CHC @ CIN): W, 6-4

May 25th (CHC @ CIN): L, 6-2

May 26th (CHC @ CIN): W, 3-1

Predicted record: 4-2.

Thank you for reading! Comments are appreciated. 

———-

JR: How are Miami fans taking to the “gutting” of the team after committing to the new stadium with big aspirations just a year ago?

EK: Not too well. The 2012 team was hyped up to be a contender and something Marlins fans could look forward each year as the newly re-branded Miami Marlins. Of course, that was not to be. Owner Jeffery Loria works on an impulse and rather than allow the team one more chance to put things together, decided that they needed to reboot and start all over. Instead of getting to watch superstars like Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez, Marlins fans are settling for wash-ups Greg Dobbs and Placido Polanco. Even fan favorite and one of the World Series heroes from 2003, Juan Pierre, has been a huge bust.

JR: Is outfielder Giancarlo Stanton becoming disenchanted with the team / organization? And … should we expect to hear his name in any trade rumors (real or speculation) often as the season progresses?

Apr 28, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) connects for a two run homer in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Marlins Park. (Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports)

EK: Giancarlo quickly stated after the trade that he was not happy with the direction the team was taking. He even told Peter Gammons that he doubted the Marlins purpose for the trades were to build a winner. To his credit, Stanton has been a professional about the whole ordeal since the season began. He has been playing hard and has tried to take on a leadership role in a young clubhouse. He got off to a slow start, but was just heating up at the end of April.

Unfortunately, that is when he went down with a hamstring injury that should sideline him for a month or two. As for the rumors, they are constantly out there, but it would make no sense for the Marlins to deal their superstar right now. Between the slow start and the injury, his value is not at it’s peak. Marlins fans have grudgingly admitted that Stanton does not seem to be in the Marlins future, but it would still alienate the fanbase to trade him right now.

JR: Is there any one starting pitcher on the Marlins roster that the Reds should worry to face in this upcoming series? [Jose Fernandez or Ricky Nolasco come to mind, and the Reds faced Fernandez once in the homestand a month ago]

EK: Jose Fernandez is the pitcher that the Reds lineup should fear the most. Yes, the Reds knocked him around in a start earlier this season, but he was still figuring things out. His last two starts have been a lot better. Two starts ago, he allowed just one hit in seven innings and struck out nine. His last start, he allowed a three-run home run to Adrian Gonzalez, but was able to bounce back and deliver a strong six innings, striking out seven more hitters.

JR: Around baseball, the Marlins are seen as a “doormat” team in 2013 after having success in multiple seasons in the recent past. How is Jeff Loria viewed as affecting (or hindering) the ability of the team to compete?

EK: Loria hinders the team’s performance by acting like he knows what he is doing. Loria often times dictates to managers who he wants in the Marlins lineup and active roster. He will trade a player or fire a manager on an impulse. He is extremely unpredictable and Marlins fans are quite fed up with it. I dare you to name a worse owner in professional sports. I will leave it at that, don’t like wasting my breath on this guy anymore.

JR: What “up-and-comers” are getting more playing time (and not “household names”) we should expect to see playing in the starting eight in the series?

May 5, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Marcell Ozuna (48) during an at bat during the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Marlins defeated the Phillies 14-2. (Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports)

EK: Some non-household names to watch include prospects Derek Dietrich and Marcell Ozuna. Dietrich was recently called up and is seen as the Marlins scond baseman of the future. He is up in the majors after Donovan Solano hit the disabled list. Dietrich has a home run and double early in his major league career and hopes to impress the Marlins enough to warrant the starting second base job when Solano returns. Derek was likely rushed a bit to the majors, but the Marlins had no choice with all the injuries on their roster.

Marcell Ozuna is the other Marlins prospect that was rushed due to injuries. Most prospect experts projected Ozuna to make his MLB debut sometime in 2014, but with him being on the 40-man roster, he made more sense for the Marlins to bring up. Ozuna has been impressive in his MLB stint though. He owns a slash line of .326/.367/.500 slash line with a home run and five doubles. Ozuna is filling in for the injured Stanton and could shift to left field in place of Juan Pierre if he continues to hit well.

JR: Should the Reds be worried about an “upset” in this series (given their woefulness on the road this season) and seeing the Marlins win at least a couple games?

EK: Hardly. The Marlins are not a very good team right now and their lineup is beyond putrid. I mean, Greg “Freaking” Dobbs and Miguel Olivo have spent a lot of time in the Marlins starting lineup. That makes me want to puke. Dobbs is directily the opposite player that Reds first baseman Joey Votto is. But the Marlins do have a chance to steal a game this series with their pitching. Fernandez has thrown the ball well and pitches the finale and Nolasco is coming off of a nine strikeout game his last time out.

———-

Continue the conversation with me on Twitter @JDRentz

August 27, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez (16) hits a home run against the Chicago Cubs during the ninth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

1. Aramis Ramirez,  Milwaukee Brewers

Ramirez has 15 seasons logged in the majors and everyone of them has been with a team from the Central Division. He hits with both power and average, and in 2012 posted the highest WAR of his career at 5.4. He is pretty much in the middle of the road defensively, not winning any Gold Gloves but not being a total handicap in the field.  At 34, he should be on the downhill drag but after reviewing his numbers from 2012 it isn’t noticeable yet.  Ramirez has been selected to two All-Star teams and has won a Silver Slugger award.  His career stats are impressive with 342 HR and 1227 RBI and a slash line of .285/.343/.503 and an OPS+ of 116. Bill James projects that he will hit 27 HR with 102 RBI in 2013 while batting .286. He has hit 25+ HR 10 times and has 100+ RBI seven times. Projected WAR  3.8

Big Question for Ramirez:

He has been as consistent as can be, so how much longer can his 34 year old body continue to perform at a top flight level?

Oct 17, 2012; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman David Freese (23) steps up to bat during the seventh inning of game three of the 2012 NLCS against the San Francisco Giants at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

2. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals

At the runner-up spot, I split with the MLB preview and slotted Freese there. They had  Alvarez as their second choice in the division, and eighth overall in the NL.  Freese in my view is a more well-rounded player than Alvarez.  Freese produced the second best WAR of this group, at 3.6 trailing only Ramirez. In his first injury-free season in which he played 144 games he carved out a very good season. He hit 20 HR and knocked in 79 while hitting .293/.372/.467 with an excellent OPS+ of 129. He is perhaps no better than average at the hot corner however he did lead that group in converting double plays in 2011 and 2012. Freese made the All-Star team in 2012 after an outstanding postseason in 2011 when he hit 5 HR and knocked in 23 while hitting .397. Bill James has him penciled in for 20 HR and 87 RBI in 2012 and sporting a BA of .301. In his four-year career he has amassed an OPS+ of 121. Freese is not a spring chicken at 30, and should be in the prime of his career. Projected WAR 3.6

Big Question for Freese:

Can he put together a complete season and show the world the David Freese that took charge of the 2011 playoffs?

Aug. 28, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA: Cincinnati Reds first baseman Todd Frazier against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

3. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds

I did agree with the third, or middle choice in the division, Frazier. The MLB review has him as the ninth best in the National League.  He had an outstanding rookie campaign and put some good numbers up in 128 games. He filled a huge void that was created when Joey Votto went down in July. He was the backup for Scott Rolen last season and we can certainly hope that some of Rolen’s defensive magic has rubbed off onto Frazier. At one point Frazier was said to be a ‘Jack of all trades and master of none.’  He is replacing a man who has won 8 Gold Gloves so he needs to be looked at with some expected latitude.

Last season Frazier hit 19 HR with 67 RBI and batted .273/.331/.498 with a WAR of 1.9. He possesses very good power, can hit for a decent average, and at 27, has a brilliant upside.  His plate discipline is not what you want but again he is just a sophomore. Speaking of that, Bill James apparently expects a little of the sophomore jinx to creep upon Frazier. He has him projected with only 15 HR 51 RBI and shows his batting sliding down to .263. Projected WAR 3.2

Big Question for Frazier:

After a stellar rookie campaign, can he add some sterling defense to his toolbox? With the departed Rolen, he has the chance to shine and become the elite defensive third-baseman in the division.

Apr. 17, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates infielder Pedro Alvarez during game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

4. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates

In the fourth hole I have placed Alvarez. At this point he appears to be a one-dimensional player. It is mindful of Adam Dunn. He hits a home run or strikes out. He owns the worst SO/BB ratio of anyone on this list. In fact only Ramirez has a better than league average in that category.  In fact he almost struck out more times than hits and walks combined. Alvarez hit a whopping 30 HR last season with 85 RBI. His 2012 WAR was 2.6 but his slash line did not look good: .244/.317/.467. Bill James projects him with 29 HR with 91 RBI in 2013 while bringing his BA up to .257. In his three seasons he has an OPS+ of 103. Projected WAR 3.1

Big Question for Alvarez:

Since he hasn’t even hit his stride yet, can he improve his plate discipline and become a complete hitter?

May 13, 2012; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Ian Stewart (2) hits a home run off Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Marco Estrada (not pictured) in the fifth inning at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

5. Ian Stewart, Chicago Cubs

The last place starting third-baseman for the NLC goes to Chicago Cubs’ Ian Stewart. With a 72 OPS+ last season along with 0 WAR, not too many laurels may be printed about him. He does possess more than warning track power as his 20 HR per 162 games  indicates. In 2009 he smacked 25 long balls. At 27, Stewart is already in his seventh season.  In his six years he has never batted higher than .259 and only once was his OPS+ above average at 102. Stewart is ranked behind four different Cardinal third-basemen, Freese, Matt Carpenter, Daniel Descalso and even Ty Wigginton. That is harsh right there. Bill James doesn’t think much of him either. He has him pegged for 6 HR, 20 RBI and an average of .238 in 2013. Projected WAR 2.0

Big Question for Stewart:

When another team has three replacements ranked higher than you it is a problem. Can he finally learn how to hit, or will he be relegated to a bench warmer?

Surprising to me on this list is the fact that there are no Gold Glovers whatsoever. Rolen was by far the best defender of the hot corner in the National League. He will certainly be missed.  There are only two All-Stars in the division which is also unsettling with 30 years of experience between them all.

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