September 16, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Denard Span (2) during the game against the Chicago White Sox at Target Field. The White Sox defeated the Twins 9-2. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

News broke this evening that the Minnesota Twins had dealt CF Denard Span to the Washington Nationals for minor league pitcher Alex Meyer. This ends trade rumors surrounding Span that stretch back to the Reagan administration. Much of those rumored trade partners for the Twins usually involved the Reds. Off the table now is one of the few viable (and semi-affordable) options at the leadoff position that it is believed the Reds were in the market for. Span was signed for two more years at $11.25 million total with a final year option for $9 million.

The most interesting part of this move for me is the implications for Michael Bourn. The Nats were far and away considered the front runner for his services since the beginning of the offseason but now seem to have filled his potential spot. While I am sure that regardless of the Nats willingness to sign Bourn he would still be out of the Reds’ budget, it does increase the chances that the Reds may reconsider the center fielder. Though it only increases the chances from ‘absolutely impossible’ to ‘very highly unlikely’ at this point however.

Oct 6, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Cincinnati Reds pinch hitter Homer Bailey (34) reacts after striking out against the San Francisco Giants during the third inning of game one of the 2012 NLDS at AT

Homer Bailey has had a rather shaky standing with Reds fans throughout his now 6 year major league career. Once a prize prospect coming out of high school in La Grange, TX, Bailey began to get some grief from Reds fans (myself included) when the transition from top prospect to major leaguer let to very pedestrian results. From 2009-2011, Homer never posted an ERA over 4.43 or had double digit wins. This prompted much overture from armchair GMs to trade Bailey while he still had some sort of value. Then came the 2012 season.

In 2012 Homer Bailey became the Homer we had expected to blossom 2-3 years ago. Going 13-10 with a 3.63 ERA, Homer started an NL-high 33 games, 2 complete games, and 208 innings. Oh yea, he also happened to throw the first Reds no-hitter since Tom Browning in ’88 right around my 11th month of existence on Earth. While the record and ERA don’t jump off the screen, Homer Bailey has definitely won himself quite a bit of leash with Reds fans and is most definitely part of the bedrock of the Reds rotation going forward. So how did he do what he did in 2012?

Homer’s peripheral statistics between 2011 and 2012 are weirdly similar. K/9, BB/9, BABIP, WHIP, and most other statistics between the two seasons are no more than 0.1 different. No significant statistical difference seen that couldn’t be explained purely through randomness. How Homer Bailey did what he did in progressing as a player in 2012 can be best described with an overused cliche: “He learned how to be a pitcher rather than a thrower.”

Homer averaged nearly 5 more pitches per start in 2012 (100.5) as in 2011 (95.2). In addition to throwing more pitches per start, he was able to illicit a different response from hitters as well. The only main statistical difference in Homer’s numbers 2011 to 2012 is his ground ball %. In 2012, Homer was able to coax more ground balls from hitters (39.5% GB% in 2011 vs. 44.9% in 2012) and lower the amount of fly balls and line drives. His GB/FB ratio raised from 1.03 in 2011 to 1.27 in 2012. While HR/9 stayed consistent year-to-year (and he allowed a not insignificant 26 HR in 2012 tied for 5th most allowed in the NL), allowing less line drives and fly balls and more ground balls will help your play regardless of the dingers.

Just watching Homer start-to-start from a fan standpoint, a difference could be seen. He possessed more of a look of confidence in throwing his fastball to hitters. He was able to be confident enough to place it in the strike zone as opposed to nibbling more with the curve or slider burning pitches. Homer just seemed to possess a more cerebral approach to pitching in 2012. Less throwing and more pitching.

It remains to be seen if Homer can maintain this level of production and continue to grow from it. Sustaining a sub-4 ERA and throwing 200+ innings a year will keep Homer in a Reds uniform for a long time at no worse than the #3 starter. If 2013 sees Homer take another leap building upon 2012, the Reds may be close to laying claim to best rotation in the National League.

Yea! Emmanuel Burriss! Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

The Reds finally took a dip into the free agent well this winter! And they scooped up a shiny new…Emmanuel Burriss… Oh.

While Burriss is something, I believe he is simply going to become at best the replacement for Wilson Valdez on the “Player I Make Ceaseless OBP & WAR Jokes About That My Wife Doesn’t Get” list or a cut in spring training. Seriously, go take a look at his OBP and WAR for 2011 and 2012. A .253 and .270 OBP over those two seasons respectively! And his 2012 season culminated in a -1.2 WAR. That is definitely not the leadoff hitter so desperately desired or the big right handed bat to replace the ridiculous contract I know an AL team will be giving Ryan Ludwick.

This move along with the relatively vague types of comments heard from those close to the Reds’ front office regarding specific players or offseason strategy is sending a signal. From reading those tea leaves, it is becoming apparent that this particular offseason will be closely resembling two years ago when despite restless internet overtures that the Reds’ roster needed some retooling, hands were sat on and only fringe moves were made. The talks of possible 2013 payroll numbers start to make that seem likely as well. John Fay wrote last week that his guesses are that the potential payroll will fall at $92 million in 2013 but a team insider said “that payroll number could start with an eight.”. Steve also wrote about this number a few days ago here on BRM.

Given this and the fact that the Reds’ currently stand at $71 million for 2013 with a whole bevy of arbitration eligible players, standing pat may be the only fiscal option. My best guess is that a run is taken at a mid-level closer option (Jonathan Broxton anyone?) and then fingers are crossed that the market on Ludwick dries up so a good deal can be had (not happening). That is best case scenario.

I do feel better about standing pat during this offseason than in some prior, but there are definitely some aspects of the team that need addressing regardless of the avenue or the Reds are doomed to display the similar characteristics that led to the historic flameout that we all still have fresh in our minds as Reds’ fans.