May 16, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce (32) connects for a two run RBI double in the tenth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The Red won 5-3 in ten inning

First off, I’d like to apologize for not posting this column last week. I was recovering from Wisdom Teeth Extraction surgery and didn’t feel like I could write to the best of my ability. The time-sensitive nature of this piece also makes it hard to write too far in advance. But, we’re here this week and that’s all that matters. The last two weeks have been good on the Reds, even after tough series against the Phillies and Braves, as they swept both the Brewers and Marlins. Keep in mind that the Reds rotation is in a bit of a flux right now, with Johnny Cueto returning and Tony Cingrani getting sent down. The rotation is tentative at this point, so it could end up being different from what is here. Nothing is really set at this point. So, without further ado, here are the Reds upcoming games for the week:

May 20th: CIN @ NYM — Johnny Cueto vs. Shaun Marcum

May 21st: CIN @ NYM — Mike Leake vs. Jon Niese

May 22nd: CIN @ NYM — Mat Latos vs. Matt Harvey

May 24th: CHC @ CIN — Travis Wood vs. Homer Bailey

May 25th: CHC @ CIN — Scott Feldman vs. Bronson Arroyo

May 26th: CHC @ CIN — Matt Garza vs. Johnny Cueto

Position Player Recommendations 

1. Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce continued his hot streak last week in a big way. As of Saturday, he hit .476/.500/.952 with 2 homers and 8 RBI, including a big 2 run homer off of tough lefty Cliff Lee for the week. As I predicted, facing off against the Brewers really seemed to set Bruce off, and he’s capitalized in a big way. Next week, Bruce will take the field in New York’s Citi Field, as well as good old Great American Ballpark. Predictably, Bruce has seen his fair share of struggles in Citi Field over the past 3 years, as he’s hit just .194/.250/.500 there, albeit with 3 home runs. Bruce has hit relatively well against the 3 pitchers the Reds will face, however, as he is 5-19 against them, with 2 homers and 6 RBIs against them. As for the pitchers that the Cubs will throw up there, Bruce has never faced Scott Feldman before. However, he has done well against Travis Wood in his career, going 2-5 with 2 homers off of him. Bruce has also hit modestly well against Matt Garza as well.

It’s easy to look at Bruce’s BABIP, which is an inflated .381, and assume that his numbers are flukey because of a high BABIP. However, we also have to consider how exactly Bruce is hitting the ball. Bruce’s line drive rate of 31.6% is second only to James Loney in all of baseball. Hitters who have a high line drive rate tend to be among the best in baseball, as Loney (who leads the MLB in hitting), Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, David Wright, and Austin Jackson are all among this list, and all are having remarkable years .These hitters also have something else in common- most of them have an inflated BABIP. Loney’s is .398, Mauer’s is .450, Votto’s is .402, Wright’s is .349, and Jackson’s is .336. The numbers from 2012 also follow suit as Dexter Fowler, who led baseball in line drive rate in 2012, also posted a .390 BABIP. In fact, aside from Freddie Freeman, everybody in the top 10 posted a BABIP of over .320, with most in the .340-.360 range.

So, what does this all mean? Well, the trajectory of a line drive allows it to fall in for a hit more so than a flyball, groundball, or popup. Hitters who can consistently hit line drives are rewarded with high BABIPs and, usually, high batting averages and lots of doubles. This, apart from batting average, which sits at a modest .275 for Bruce, completely describes how Bruce has been hitting this year. Jay Bruce is tied with Gerardo Parra, AJ Pollock, and Matt Carpenter for the NL lead in doubles with 14. What does all this ultimately say about Jay Bruce? The data would seem to indicate that Bruce is hitting the ball better than ever this year. He’s seeing the ball well, which is allowing him to drive the ball better than in years past. Has Bruce’s hot streak been a product of at least a little luck? Undoubtedly. Will Bruce probably keep driving balls at this rate? Probably not. However, if he can, Bruce could finally break out, hitting around .280 with a ton of doubles and 25-30 home runs, which would be a career year for Bruce.

Overall, he’s an easy start next week. Bruce is a smart play when he’s hot no matter what the matchups say, really. The fact that the matchups are positive is just another sign that this should be a big week for Bruce. Bruce may never hit .300, and he might never be a hitter who can come up in the clutch consistently. However, he’s been a solid hitter so far this year (May in particular) so he should be in your lineup.

Week Eight Line Prediction: .350 average, 2 HR, 6 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Todd Frazier

What happened to Todd Frazier? After starting the year off strong, he’s virtually fallen off of a cliff. He hasn’t had a hit in nearly 20 at bats while striking out in nearly half of those. He simply looks lost at the plate right now, and it’s almost physically painful to watch. Fantasy owners are starting to lose hope in Todd, as his ownership has fallen from 100% to 97.7% in the past week, and could fall even further if he continues to flounder at the plate. And really, who can blame fantasy owners? He’s been an absolute black hole in fantasy lineups during that stretch.

The question is whether Frazier’s struggles are luck-based, or if he really has been this bad. His BABIP of .250 on the year is definitely below average, but not nearly low enough to compensate for hitting .214. However, a closer look at his numbers reveals the main problem. At Great American Ballpark this season, he’s been a fine hitter, hitting .293/.379/.587 with 6 homers and 19 RBI. However, on the road, he’s hit a paltry .123/.205/.169 with no homers and 6 RBI. Looking at Frazier’s road BABIP, which sits at .170, it’s apparent that he’s been getting really unlucky on the road for some reason. This could partially explain the awful numbers.

But, there’s no denying that Frazier is in a funk right now, luck-based or not. For next week, he should be sitting. Eric Chavez, Chris Johnson, Mike Moustakas, and Juan Francisco could all make good subs for him.

Week Eight Line Prediction: .200 average, 0 HRs, 3 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

3. Shin Soo Choo

How good has Shin Soo Choo been this year? He leads the Reds in home runs, leads baseball in OBP, leads the NL in runs scored, and has 19 RBI from the leadoff spot. He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. Although May hasn’t been as good to Choo as April was (except in home runs, where it’s been better already), he has still been solid. He should be starting no matter what at this point, even with his difficulties against lefties (.149 average against.)

Week Eight Line Prediction: .300 average, 1 HR, 3 RBI.

Pitching Recommendations:

1. Johnny Cueto

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Ah, finally. Johnny Cueto, the Reds’ staff ace, has returned. As good as Mat Latos has been this year, Johnny Cueto is the bona fide ace of the Reds pitching staff. He also happens to have dual start eligibility this week against 2 offensively challenged clubs. The question isn’t with Cueto’s talent level, as is the case with many other starters, but with how he has recovered from his injury. If he’s 100%, he should be a force in fantasy baseball this week. If he’s not quite 100%, he should still be good but not great.

Cueto couldn’t have a better environment for his return. The Mets are 21st in runs scored this season, and he’ll be pitching in the expansive Citi Field. Over the past 3 seasons, Cueto has only started one game at Citi Field (somehow), but was spectacular in that game, going 7 innings while giving up 1 run on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts. Even with its fences drawn in, Citi Field does not relent home runs very easily, which will help cushion the blow in the event that Cueto’s stuff isn’t terribly sharp on his return. Cueto has also dominated the Mets since 2010, going 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA over that span. Cueto’s first start back couldn’t be more perfect.

His second start against the offensively challenged Cubs should also be a good matchup for him. He has pitched a whopping 61.2 innings over the past 3 years against Chicago, and has only allowed 12 earned runs over that span, which comes out to a 1.75 record accompanied by a 6-1 record. Cueto has simply dominated the Cubs, and that was made even more apparent last season, when he went 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 4-0 record in 4 starts against them last year. He will be pitching in Great American Ballpark, so if his stuff isn’t sharp there could be some homers. However, as this is his second start back, I think he’ll do just fine.

Overall, there’s very little risk in starting Cueto next week, even if he is coming straight from the DL.

Week Eight Line Prediction: 1 win, 0 losses, 13 IP, 7 Ks, 5 ER, 3.46 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Mat Latos

While Cueto is no doubt the Reds ace, Latos has been an incredibly solid pitcher so far this season. He goes against the Mets next week, which is both a positive and a negative for Latos. It’s a positive because Latos has done quite well against the Mets over his career, going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA. However, it’s also a negative because the Reds will be squaring off against Matt Harvey, who has been absolutely unhittable this year (seriously, look at his numbers, it’s ridiculous.) The offense tends to fall asleep when Latos pitches (except for when they lit up Hiram Burgos for 12 runs) and facing Harvey in a pitcher’s park won’t help anything at all. I think that Latos will pitch a solid game, but still take the loss due to Harvey’s dominance. If that is indeed the case, it will be Latos’ first regular season loss since last August, en route to the best winning percentage in the NL since the start of last year.

Week Eight Line Prediction: 0 wins, 1 loss, 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER, 2.57 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

3. Bronson Arroyo

No.

Week Eight Line Prediction: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 3 Ks, 4 ER, 6.00 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit. Drop.

4. Homer Bailey

Funny enough, Homer Bailey has been the Reds’ most valuable pitcher so far this season by WAR. His 1.2 mark leads the Reds staff, and is tied for 22nd in baseball. A quick look at the numbers reveals why. His FIP and xFIP are 2.89 and 3.09 respectively. That’s 15th and 13th best in baseball. Bailey has also struck out a good amount of hitters, as his 9.12 K/9 would indicate. Most importantly, though, is that these numbers are sustainable, as his BABIP indicates that he’s actually gotten slightly unlucky, with a .297 mark. This really could be a career year for Homer.

Bailey will also have the privilege of facing the Cubs, who he pitched well against last year, with a 3-0 record and 3.12 ERA. Don’t let the W/L record fool you, Bailey has been great this year. Start him.

Week Eight Line Predictions: 1 win, 0 losses, 7 IP, 8 Ks, 3 ER, 3.86 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

5. Mike Leake

It’s official- Leake is the 5th starter. Still don’t want him anywhere near my team.

Week Eight Line Predictions: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 3 Ks, 4 ER, 6.00 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

Week Eight W/L Predictions:

May 20th (CIN @ NYM): W, 5-3

May 21st (CIN @ NYM): W, 9-5

May 22nd (CIN @ NYM): L, 2-0

May 24th (CHC @ CIN): W, 6-4

May 25th (CHC @ CIN): L, 6-2

May 26th (CHC @ CIN): W, 3-1

Predicted record: 4-2.

Thank you for reading! Comments are appreciated. 

Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

This week’s edition of Reds Fantasy Roundup will be a bit different from what we’ve seen in the past. For the past 5 weeks, I’ve mainly talked about basic standard stats like average, homers, OBP, etc. While I’ll still be doing that, as they are the critical components to fantasy baseball, I’ll be adding in a level of sabermetric analysis to actually back these observations and claims up. The reason that I’ve waited until this point is that, before four or five weeks into the season, talking sabermetrics is pretty silly. For the first few weeks, it’s not unusual to see players with BABIPs nearing .600, or pitchers with FIPs over 10. However, as things begin to groove out and the numbers begin to start to make sense, sabermetrics become relevant yet again. While you’ll still have the odd stat or two (does anyone really think that Chris Johnson can keep up with a .446 BABIP?) the numbers are beginning to enter this phase. So, hopefully, this would mean that my predictions can begin to make more sense, and that I don’t end up advising to sit Brandon Phillipsbefore a week where he hits .300. With that being said, here are the pitchers that the Reds will be squaring off against at Great American Ballpark this week:

Week Six Projected Matchups:

April 6th: ATL @ CIN — Paul Maholm vs. Bronson Arroyo

April 7th: ATL @ CIN — Kris Medlen vs. Homer Bailey

April 8th: ATL @ CIN — Mike Minor vs. Mike Leake

April 10th: MIL @ CIN — Yovani Gallardo vs. Tony Cingrani

April 11th: MIL @ CIN — Kyle Lohse vs. Mat Latos

April 12th: MIL @ CIN — Marco Estrada vs. Bronson Arroyo

Position Player Recommendations

1. Jay Bruce

Bruce has had a downright awful start to the 2013 season, there’s really no getting around that. He’s triple slashing an absolutely dreadful .256/.309/.357, with only one home run and 14 RBI, all while being among baseball’s strikeout leaders. It really isn’t unusual to see Bruce struggle for prolonged periods of time, but starting the year off at this pace doesn’t really bode well for the left handed slugger. Bruce’s struggles are particularly concerning because of the fact that he sports a .381 BABIP, meaning that he’s actually getting very lucky on balls put in play. However, his high line drive rate of 29.4%, fourth in the majors, means that he’s hitting the ball well, and that more of his line drives are going to start falling in for doubles and home runs.

A return to Great American Ballpark will bode well for Bruce, but the Reds do face off against some great pitching in their upcoming homestand. Paul Maholm, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, and Kyle Lohse have all pitched excellently this season. Bruce is still, comparatively, clobbering left handed pitching for some reason with a .341/.357/.512 triple slash against southpaws (versus only .216/.289/.284 against right handers.) This split makes absolutely no sense, as Bruce has had a normal split his entire career. Don’t count me as a believer in Bruce’s sudden ability to hit lefties though, as his .419 BABIP against left handers is completely unsustainable. The more worrying stat here is his .358 BABIP against right handers, which suggests that he’s actually lucky to have the triple slash that he does against rightys.

2013 has been an absolute mess for Bruce, and if he doesn’t start to pick it up, you might want to consider a permanent solution, as he’s basically been a black hole in fantasy lineups all year. If Bruce is going to pick it up, though, this might just be the week that he does it. Bruce doesn’t have much experience against Atlanta’s starters, with only 20 at bats in his career against all 3 of them (and only 2 hits- 2 homers off of Paul Maholm) to show for it. However, he has absolutely destroyed Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, and Kyle Lohse, going 26-72 (.361) against the 3 of them with 7 home runs. Throughout his career, he’s feasted on Brewers’ pitching, particularly these three, so if a resurgence is in the cards, this week seems the most likely candidate, with the Reds returning home and facing 3 pitchers (all rightys) who Bruce has clobbered in his career. However, if his struggles continue, you might want to consider trading Bruce while there is still time.

Week Six Line Prediction: .300 average, 2 HRs, 6 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Todd Frazier

Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

It really seems like it was only a little while ago that we were talking about how torrid of a start Frazier was off to. He was hitting for average, clubbing homers, driving in runners, and getting on base. Well, so much for that. Frazier has been mired in a big slump for the last 2-3 weeks, and has brought his season numbers down to a paltry .226/.306/.453 with 6 homers and 21 RBIs. The home runs and RBIs are actually pretty good for a late round third baseman, and the slugging percentage really isn’t bad, but he’s been a pretty big hit on average and OBP so far. As pedestrian as he has been on the road so far this season, hitting just .122/.214/.184 (with zero home runs and 4 RBI) on the road, he’s been great in the close confines of Great American Ballpark, where he has hit .316/.385/.684 with 6 homers and 17 RBI, in only 8 more at bats at home. However, his struggles on the road this year may be more luck based than ballpark based, as he has a BABIP of just .162 on the road, the seventh unluckiest mark in the bigs.

For this alone, he’s a definite start whenever the Reds are home, and perhaps a platoon guy when the Reds are on the road (that is, until he starts reversing his luck and hitting on the road), depending on who your other infielders are. As for matchup statistics, Frazier has only had a combined 5 at bats against Atlanta’s 3 pitchers, going 0-5  with 3 strikeouts against them. He’s also been limited in his at bats against Milwaukee’s starting 3, going 3-9 off of them, so the matchups don’t really tell us much. He does have a homer off of John Axford though but really, who didn’t last season? Frazier should provide solid counting stats this week, as well as a decent average and OBP.

Week 6 Line Prediction: .300 average, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs.

Final Recommendation: Start.

3. Zack Cozart

I’ll go ahead and quote myself from week one now just to get it out of the way- “[Speaking of Cozart] I firmly believe that [his ownership] will be 100 percent by the end of the year, because I expect Cozart to have an excellent 2013 campaign.” Well, that hasn’t exactly panned out so far, and really, why should it have? Aside from one month in 2012, where MLB pitchers really had no experience against him, he has been a mediocre hitter, and I’m not sure why I expected that to change. I suppose he could turn into Troy Tulowitzki for a few months and prove the doubters wrong (it’s still early) but there’s no definite reasoning to say that he should. Dusty has hit him in the 2 hole- he’s responded by not hitting. Dusty has hit him in the 7th hole- he’s responded by not hitting. His slashline on the year sits at .204/.240 (wow)/.336 and, aside from the 4 home runs he has hit, has been, like Jay Bruce, a black hole in fantasy lineups.

It is important to note that Cozart has gotten pretty unlucky this year, as his .200 BABIP would indicate. However, he also has the worst line drive rate in baseball so far at 7.1%, indicating that he’s not really hitting the ball too hard (this is one of those examples where you can really see the stats with your own eyes- how many times has Cozart gotten to a hitters count and then weakly popped up or softly grounded out?) He’s also 16th in baseball with a 55.6 ground ball percentage, which is a pretty terrible rate for a number 2 hitter (especially with Choo getting on base at such a torrid clip) as his 4 GIDPs would indicate. Cozart has erased a Reds rally more than a few times, and why Dusty chooses to give him at bats over guys like Todd Frazier or Devin Mesoraco is beyond me. But, that’s the way it is. Cozart is still somewhat fairly fantasy relevant because of his 36.3% ownership in ESPN leagues, but there’s no real reason why he should be on your roster. If you missed out on Jean Segura, it might be a good idea to replace Cozart with a good waiver pickup if you still can- Marwin Gonzalez, Erik Aybar, and Didi Gregorius are all solid pickups to replace him and could be available in your league. I think we’re going to have to accept the fact that Cozart will never be a good major league hitter. However, his glove (and the lack of a replacement) should guarantee him at bats.

Week Six Line Prediction: .200 average, 1 home run, 2 RBIs.

Final Recommendation: Sit. Drop.

Pitcher Recommendations: 

1. Mat Latos

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Mat Latos’ career April struggles have been well documented, so it’s really unusual to see him pitching like an ace so early in the year. In fact, since allowing 3 runs against Pittsburgh on April 14th (which was the infamous Jonathan Broxton explosion game), Latos has allowed 1, 0, and 0 runs in his last 3 starts, and is currently on a 13 inning scoreless streak. He is, however, dealing with some hip soreness, so keep an eye on that situation. He’s not expected to actually miss any time, but keep a watch on his start today vs the Cubs. If he does end up needing to miss a few starts (which is exactly what the Reds don’t need right now), you’ll want to set your lineup accordingly.

Latos really has pitched at an ace-like level this year, though, with a 2-0 record and 1.83 ERA (with a solid 1.09 WHIP.) If he can keep this up throughout the year, we could be looking at a dark horse Cy candidate. These results are especially encouraging because, as of right now, he doesn’t appear to be getting particularly lucky in his starts, so his success is fueled by actual performance alone. His BABIP of .299 is actually slightly higher than league average, and his FIP and xFIP are a very solid 2.80 and 3.12 respectfully. While a 2-0 record at this point in the season isn’t bad, Latos really should be 5-0 or 4-1, but has been the victim of offensive vacations and untimely bullpen implosions (Jonathan freaking Broxton much?)

To get the bad stuff out of the way with Latos, his pitching style doesn’t really allow him to sustain a 0.69 HR/9 rate, and his 8.3% HR/FB is about what it was when he was pitching in Petco Park, instead of in GABP. He’s also throwing his fastball about 1.5 mph slower than he was at this point last season, which could be a factor in his impeccable control. He had good control last season, but his 37:8 K:BB ratio this season is really good. Latos’ success so far has been dependent on 2 things, really- his slider and his cutter. He’s actually thrown his slider nearly as much as his fastball (147 to 162) and hitters are still only hitting .206 off of it. He’s used his curveball sparingly, but when he has it has gotten results- hitters are only hitting .056 off of his hook, as the 14.1 mph difference in his average fastball speed and curveball speed.

Over the past 3 years, Latos has pitched very well against the Brewers, compiling a 2.34 ERA against them. Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez are the only 2 Brewers on the the current roster who have hurt Latos in his career, as they each have 2 homers in 25 combined at bats against him. As good as Gomez has been this year (he’s been worth 2 WAR already- the Brewers are looking pretty good on that deal so far) he’s not enough to power an entire team, and Latos should mow through them easy enough (Latos owns his current high in strikeouts- 13- against the Brewers.)

Week Six Line Prediction: 1 win, 0 losses, 7 IP, 8 Ks, 1 ER, 1.29 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Bronson Arroyo

I don’t like Bronson Arroyo in fantasy baseball for 3 very simple reasons. 1) He doesn’t strike anyone out. 2) He has a propensity to blow up. 3) He really really struggles after the 5th inning, but Dusty likes to leave him in there because he’s our ‘innings eater’ or ‘workhorse’ or whatever. Really, someone off of the waiver like Kevin Slowey, Jose Fernandez, Marco Estrada, or even Jeff Locke would be better.

Week Six Line Prediction: 0 wins, 1 loss, 12 IP, 7 Ks, 7 ER, 5.25 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit. Drop.

3. Homer Bailey

Homer Bailey has been an interesting pitcher this year. Against any team not named the Cardinals, he’s pitched like John Smoltz, but against the Redbirds he’s been more like John Burkett. Seriously, 11 of his 14 earned runs on the year have come in his 2 starts against the Cardinals, and he has a 1.04 ERA against any and everybody else besides them this year. Like Latos, he has been the victim of bad run support and bad bullpen work, as well as has had neutral luck like Latos. Bailey seems to have really discovered his 2 seam fastball this year, as he’s actually thrown it more than his 4 seam (where in 2012 he had thrown it less than 1/3 as much as his 4 seamer.) Even already this early in the season, he’s already surpassing his average fastball velocity from last season by nearly a full MPH, which is a result of another offseason of weight gain.

He pitched well against Atlanta last year, going 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA, and over the last 3 years with a 2.41 cumulative ERA against them over that time. While, regardless of what he’s done so far this year, Kris Medlen is still a tough guy to beat, Bailey should have the upper hand in this one. Start with ease.

Week Six Line Prediction: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 5 Ks, 2 ER, 3.00 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

4. Mike Leake

Why do you still have Mike Leake on your team?

Week Six Line Prediction: 0 wins, 1 loss, 5 IP, 3 Ks, 4 ER, 7.20 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

5. Tony Cingrani

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

It finally happened, Tony Cingrani pitched like, well, a rookie. His worst start of his big league career was actually not that bad when you consider that all the damage came off of the bat of Alfonso Soriano and his 2 two run home runs, which is pretty respectable since Soriano is hitting over .400 against LHPs this year. Aside from those 2 homers, he only allowed one hit and one walk, but hit 2 batters. His fastball command wasn’t where we’ve seen it before, but hopefully that was just jitters from pitching in front of his hometown team and family. It didn’t appear, at least to me, that facing the Cubs for the second time around had any real effect on his performance- laying a fastball right down broadway belt high to Alfonso Soriano is going to get you in trouble no matter whether it’s against the Cubs for the first time or the 10th time. Everyone besides Soriano, though, looked as lost at the plate this time as they did last time. Home plate ump Alan Porter also wasn’t helping anything, as his zone was very hitter friendly on both sides. I would expect Cingrani to bounce back.

Week Six Line Prediction: 1 win, 0 losses, 6.2 IP, 10 Ks, 2 ER, 2.70 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

Week 6 Predicted W/L

April 6th (ATL @ CIN): L, 6-2.

April 7th (ATL @ CIN): W, 4-2.

April 8th (ATL @ CIN): W, 6-5.

April 10th (MIL @ CIN): W, 5-3.

April 11th (MIL @ CIN): W, 4-3.

April 12th (MIL @ CIN): L, 9-2.

Thank you for reading! Comments are appreciated. 

 David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Ouch. Watching Reds baseball over the past 3 games has not been a pleasant experience. After getting subsequently 1-hit for the first 2 games of the homestand, a Reds modern day record, they lost a fairly hard fought (and somewhat hard luck) game 6-3 to the Nationals in Washington.  This is one of those games that bothers me because, had they been playing in GABP, it would have likely been a multi-homer game for the Redlegs, and they likely would have won. Great American Ballpark worries me a bit to be honest- I’m worried that Reds hitters are hitting home runs in the comfortable confines that would be weak fly balls in most other parks, and that they’re swinging for the fence a lot of the time, only to be rewarded by a lazy fly ball. Their .125 winning percentage so far on the road doesn’t exactly help disprove that theory. However, it’s not like they’ve been playing against a bunch of stiffs on the road either. The Pirates, Nationals, and Cardinals have all had excellent pitching so far this season. The problem also has to be with Dusty Baker‘s insistence on not touching the lineup over this 4 game offensive skid (6 runs in 4 games.) Zack “The Eraser” Cozart has proven so far that he is not the answer at the 2 hole, yet he continue to bat there routinely. I also don’t know in what universe it makes sense to start Corky Miller twice in one series, especially when offense has been the main problem (Homer Bailey pitched a gem, yet the Reds couldn’t muster ONE run to save him the loss.) Sorry for the ramblings, it’s just been a bit of a bad week in Reds Country. It’ll be difficult to right the ship against Adam Wainwright(who has been the best pitcher in baseball so far in 2013) and the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, but here’s to hoping.

April 29th: CIN @ STL — Mat Latos vs. Adam Wainwright

April 30th: CIN @ STL — Bronson Arroyo vs. Jaime Garcia

May 1st: CIN @ STL — Homer Bailey vs. Lance Lynn

May 3rd: CIN @ CHC — Mike Leake vs. Scott Feldman

May 4th: CIN @ CHC — Tony Cingrani vs. Carlos Villanueva

May 5th: CIN @ CHC — Mat Latos vs. Jeff Samardzija

Position Player Recommendations: 

1. Brandon Phillips

Talk about a fall from grace. After starting off the year as one of the hottest players in baseball, Phillips has cooled off in a big way. Before yesterday’s 3 hit performance, Phillips was 2 for 22 on the week, which amounts to a .090 batting average. Even with the 3 hit game, he still is sitting at .192 with no homers and 2 RBI on the week. Phillips will have some tough pitching to face this week as well- Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, Carlos Villanueva and Jeff Samardzija have been excellent so far this year. Honestly, when Phillips gets into a rut, it’s usually bad. Maybe not on a Jay Bruce level, but he has his ups and downs. It also doesn’t help that Phillips hit a measly .200 at Busch Stadium last season. With Phillips already being in a rut this week, as well as the Reds facing some tough pitching in unfriendly environments, I’m actually going to advocate sitting Phillips for one of your bench middle infielders. Someone like Kelly Johnson, Chris Getz, or Jedd Gyorko is bound to be more productive than Phillips for the week.

Week Five Line Prediction: .230 average, 0 HR, 3 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

2. Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce is in a relatively similar place to Phillips this week. He started the year with a decent average and OBP, but after hitting .154 on the week, his average and OBP are down to Bruce levels, while the counting stats still aren’t there (although he did pick up his first homer.)  The Reds face mostly righties this week. Oddly, Bruce has hit .314/.333/.514 against LHP and .224/.316/.269 against RHP, a stark contrast to his career splits. This is bound to turn around, but there are no signs that this is the week that it will happen. It doesn’t help that the RHPs that the Reds face this week are all tough. It’s also worth noting that the Reds don’t play in GABP this week with relation to Bruce, because he seems to thrive there. Sitting him is the smart move this week, as someone like Nate McClouth or Denard Span would be the smarter play.

Week Five Line Prediction: .250 average, 0 HR, 2 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

3. Zack Cozart

Perhaps the coolest Red of all last week, Cozart has been having a rough year. He went a paltry 2-20 last week with no homers and no RBI. This is particularly bad because he’s hitting in the 2 hole, so his struggles could have an immense impact on the other players in the lineup. Cozart, somehow, is still owned in over 50 percent of ESPN leagues, so he is a fantasy relevant player based on that alone. To be honest, I would bench Cozart until he shows life in his bat, since he looks dead out there. I managed to replace Cozart with Jean Segura early on, but that’s impossible now seeing as he’s owned in 100 percent of leagues. Good temporary solutions, if you’re patient, could be Jhonny Peralta, Marwin Gonzalez, or Pete Kozma. Didi Gregorius would be a good pickup, but he’s currently recovering from being drilled in the head, so he could go on the 7 day concussion DL. In all honesty, while it’s early, it’s looking like the Reds chose the wrong SS to hold on to. Maybe Kevin Towers saw something that nobody else did, or the more likely answer is that it’s early and Didi will fall out to be the barely average hitter that he is. If you want to permanently replace Cozart on your roster, trading for someone like Ben Zobrist or Alcides Escobar would be fairly cheap. Overall, sitting Cozart this week is a must.

Week Five Line Prediction: .200 average, 0 HR, 1 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Sit. Possibly for an extended period.

Pitching Recommendations:

1. Mat Latos

Latos really has stepped into that ace role so far for the Reds this year. When the Reds offense was struggling so bad that a 480 foot home run from Todd Frazier was the only offense they could muster, Latos responded by throwing 7 shutout innings against the Cubs. He faces the Cubs again this week and has dual start eligibility. However, you have to (possibly) suffer a game against the Cardinals at home for that. The Cardinal’s offense is rolling, and Latos’ 12.75 ERA at Busch Stadium doesn’t bode too well for Latos that start. However, he pitched relatively well last time at Busch Stadium, and could do it again. I think the fact that Latos has pitched so well this year, as well as goes against a team that he’s constantly owned, could make Latos a solid start for this week. Just be aware that he might struggle a little bit against St. Louis.

Week Five Line Prediction: 1 win, 1 loss, 13 IP, 9 Ks, 5 ER, 3.46 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Bronson Arroyo

Meh. An inconsistent Arroyo against a team that he pitched poorly against already once this year at their home park? Pass.

Week Five Line Prediction: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 3 Ks, 5 ER, 7.50 ERA

Final Recommendation: Sit.

3. Homer Bailey

Bailey is a bit of an interesting case. He’s pitched well this year but really struggled against St. Louis in his last start at Busch Stadium, giving up 7 runs over 5 innings. However, since then, he hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in any of his last 3 starts, and went at least 6 innings in all of them.  The Reds’ offense could struggle to score off of Lance Lynn, though, so his chance of a loss is pretty likely even if he pitches well. This is a bit of a tossup. If you have good pitchers on your bench, a Patrick Corbin or Travis Wood type, then I’d sit Bailey in favor of them. Even if you don’t, I’d still stream someone like Kyle Kendrick, Felix Doubront, or Bartolo Colon this week over Bailey.

Week Five Line Prediction: 0 wins, 1 loss, 5 IP, 6 Ks, 4 ER, 7.20 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

4. Mike Leake

blah.

Week Five Line Prediction: 0 wins, 0 losses, 5 IP, 3 Ks, 4 ER, 7.20 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

5. Tony Cingrani

Tony Cingrani looked much more comfortable on the mound last time out, against better quality hitters too. However, he will face his hardest test today against the Nationals. This is an important start for Cingrani. If he excels against the Nationals, then he could be in line to take Leake’s spot in the rotation. However, going from owning the Cubs and Marlins to owning the Nationals is a huge step. However, for next week against the Cubs, I’d still start him, even if there is a possibility that, when teams see him again, they could sart to pick up on his fastball which would make him barely an average pitcher. For now, though, he’s a sure start.

Week Five Line Predictions: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 8 Ks, 3 ER, 4.50 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

Week 1 W/L Predictions:

April 29th (CIN @ STL) – L, 6-0

April 30th (CIN @ STL)- W, 6-5

May 1st (CIN @ STL) – L, 7-5

May 3rd (CIN @ CHC) – W, 8-6

May 4th (CIN @ CHC) – L, 4-1

May 5th (CIN @ CHC)- W, 3-1

Week 5 Predicted W/L record: 3-3

Thank you for reading! Comments are appreciated!