Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Homer Bailey Showing Another Late Season Surge

A fantastic outing last night from Homer Bailey. While he was unhappy about being pulled, Bailey later confessed that it was the right move. Like that fire from him. As Zach mentioned late last evening, Bailey was supported by the pen en route to a 1-0 win over the Cardinals.

Reds fans love Homer Bailey. Well, more to the point that they love him when the season is drawing to a close. Have a peek at these career splits…

Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG tOPS+
April/March 13 340 304 41 80 16 2 9 28 69 2.46 .263 .326 .418 104
May 23 569 520 67 124 22 4 15 41 110 2.68 .238 .298 .383 86
June 19 461 400 73 113 25 2 17 48 68 1.42 .283 .364 .483 132
July 27 719 651 90 184 30 3 19 47 129 2.74 .283 .334 .425 108
August 28 701 643 91 181 29 4 20 43 129 3.00 .281 .329 .432 108
Sept/Oct 29 737 663 59 149 26 4 15 57 182 3.19 .225 .291 .344 75
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/4/2013.


I included +tOPS within this table to illustrate the last part of my previous statement. “…when the season is drawing to a close”.

A quick recap on +tOPS. For a pitcher, the lower the number, the more effective he is.

Look at that stat for Homer in Sept/Oct. That 75 is stupid good and the rest of those splits support that. The fact that he’s capable of putting up these sick numbers tells you of the talent he possesses.

The next step would be to find that for most of the other months of the season. May is pretty darn impressive, too.

But the numbers also suggest that Bailey is better in the second half of the season with Sept/Oct driving a large portion of that.

Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG tOPS+
1st Half 67 1686 1513 217 389 76 8 50 135 311 2.30 .257 .321 .417 102
2nd Half 72 1841 1668 204 442 72 11 45 129 376 2.91 .265 .322 .402 99
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/4/2013.


Okay, it’s not by a wide margin, but if you refer to the first table, you can see that second half is buoyed by Bailey’s final month of the season.

Same applies to this season.

How good was Bailey last night? His +tOPS for this month sits at -17. Yep, so good it’s negative. Granted, last night was his only September start, but good gravy.

Just for comparison’s sake, after his sensational outing on the previous night, Mat Latos’ +tOPS is 12.

In a couple of sentences. Bailey was simply superb last night. If he performs has the numbers suggest, he’ll be a big player for the Good Guys during the month of September and beyond.

Tags: Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey

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