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Reds Fantasy Roundup: Week Eleven


Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

Upcoming Games:

June 10th: CIN @ CHC — Homer Bailey vs. Scott Feldman

June 11th: CIN @ CHC — Tony Cingrani vs. Matt Garza

June 12th: CIN @ CHC — Mike Leake vs. Travis Wood

June 13th: CIN @ CHC — Mat Latos vs. Jeff Samardzija

June 14th: MIL @ CIN — Yovani Gallardo vs. Bronson Arroyo

June 15th: MIL @ CIN — Wily Peralta vs. Homer Bailey

June 16th: MIL @ CIN — Kyle Lohse vs. Tony Cingrani

Position Player Recommendations

1. Jay Bruce

In terms of Wins Above Replacement, according to ESPN, Bruce has already provided more value to the Reds this year than he did in all of 2012. He continued his strong season last week, going 7-23 (.304) with 2 homers and 5 RBI. The matchups are favorable for Bruce in this upcoming week, as he has gone 11-38 (.289) against Chicago’s slate of starters over his career with 4 home runs to boot. Against Milwaukee, he’s been even better, as he’s gone 22-60 (.366) against Milwaukee’s trio. He’s been particularly brutal on Yovani Gallardo, hitting him to a tune of .419/.455/.710 with 2 homers in 31 at bats against the Milwaukee ace.

Bruce has been a remarkably similar hitter on the road and at home. He’s hit .269/.336/.485 at home with 6 homers and 22 RBI and .269/.302/.464 on the road with 4 homers and 18 RBI. Bruce is slowly but surely finding his power stroke again, as he’s in a three way tie for the lead in home runs with Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo. Bruce should be a safe bet to start this week.

Week Eleven Line Prediction: .320 average, 2 HR, 5 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Start.

2. Shin-Soo Choo

2013 has been a confusing season for Choo. In April, he was arguably one of the best hitters in baseball, mashing to an incredible .337/.477/.554 slashline, albeit with only 4 home runs. In May, his average started to slump a little bit, but he remained productive, hitting .240/.411/.469 in May, with 6 home runs however. June has been Choo’s toughest month to date, as he’s hit just .222/.344/.296 with no homers and just one RBI. Choo just isn’t getting it done at the plate, and his on base percentage, which remained strong even throughout his extended slump, is starting to slip with his average. He also hasn’t had a home run since May 27th versus Cleveland. Reds fans and management alike have to be wondering what the heck is going on with Choo.

The road ahead definitely doesn’t look any brighter for Choo. Against Chicago’s pitching lineup for this series, he’s gone a measly 4-32 (0.125)  with 1 home run. Against Milwaukee’s starters, he is just 1-9 (0.111) with no homers. Choo’s weak hitting as of late, as well as some unfavorable matchup numbers, make him a sensible sit for this week. Consider picking up someone like Jon Jay, Colby Rasmus, or JD Martinez to take his place this week.

Week Eleven Line Prediction: .200 average, 0 HRs, 1 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

3. Joey Votto

Is it time to worry about Joey Votto? He went from on fire to ice cold in the blink of an eye, as June has not been too kind to the Reds’ first baseman. Over the course of June, he’s only hit .214/.241/.286. Strangely, he’s been terrific on the road over the course of the season, but has been cold at home. In 2013, he’s hit .391/.514/.627 away from Great American Ballpark (with 6 of his 10 homers) and has only hit .266/.374/.411 at home. The friendly confines haven’t been so friendly to Votto this year it seems.

However, Votto’s track record gives him a bit of a longer leash than other fantasy players. It’s entirely possible (and likely) that this stretch for Votto is just a bad streak, and means nothing about him or his health for the remainder of the season. I’d give him one more week before considering benching him.

Week Eleven Line Prediction: .300 average, 1 HR, 5 RBI.

Final Recommendation: Start.

 

Pitching Recommendations:

1. Johnny Cueto

Obviously you’ll want to bench him for the upcoming week, as he won’t pitch due to being placed on the DL yet again. Although it hasn’t been officially announced yet, it’s likely that he’s going to be replaced by Tony Cingrani (Mike Leake cowers in the corner at the very thought.) Get ahead of the game and pick up Cingrani before the official announcement is made.

Week Eleven Line Prediction: N/A

Final Recommendation: Sit. Pick up Tony Cingrani.

2. Mat Latos

Mat Latos continued his stellar season with a decent performance against the Cardinals, going 7 innings while only surrendering 2 runs (but on 8 hits) with 5 strikeouts. To hold the Cardinals to 2 runs, though, is impressive. He’ll have a much easier time out against the Cubs. He now is taking over as the Reds ace yet again with Cueto on the DL.

Over the past 3 seasons, Latos (like many others) has absolutely dominated the Cubs, going 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA. Latos did have his scoreless streak snapped by the Cubs earlier this year, though, on a play that everybody except the Cubs’ official scorer knew was an error. Latos hasn’t been beat in 20 straight regular season starts, so there’s no reason to doubt him here. Oh, and current Cubs are hitting a measly .222/.264/.308 off of him. Start him easily.

Week Eleven Line Prediction: 1 win, 0 losses, 7 IP, 7 Ks, 1 ER, 1.29 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

3. Bronson Arroyo

Still not interested, thanks.

Week Eleven Line Prediction: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 2 Ks, 3 ER, 4.50 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Sit.

4. Homer Bailey

Bailey has been phenomenal this year. He’ll get two starts against two weak offenses this week, so utilize him well.

Week Eleven Line Prediction: 1 win, 0 losses, 13 IP, 10 Ks, 4 ER, 2.77 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

5. Mike Leake

Well, Leake really has turned things around. He’s 5-3 on the year with a nice 2.93 ERA. He’ll be facing Travis Wood this week in Chicago, so a win might be hard to come by, but he should pitch well. However, current Cubs are hitting .335/.373/.465 off of him, but he’s minimized the damage into a 2.84 ERA on the year against them. I’d expect him to turn in a nice game, but nothing dominant.

Week Eleven Line Prediction: 0 wins, 0 losses, 6 IP, 4 Ks, 2 ER, 3.00 ERA.

Final Recommendation: Start.

 

Week 11 Score Predictions:

June 10th (CIN @ CHC): L, 4-3

June 11th (CIN @ CHC): W, 3-1

June 12th (CIN @ CHC): W, 2-1

June 13th (CIN @ CHC): W, 4-2

June 14th (MIL @ CIN): L, 6-4

June 15th (MIL @ CIN): W, 7-3

June 16th (MIL @ CIN): W, 6-2

Week 11 Record Prediction: 5-2

 

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