Reds v Cards – 4/30/13: Probable Pitchers and Starters

Apr 25, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Arroyo throws a pitch in the first inning of the game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. (Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports)

Who would have thought that a broken bat ground out would lead to a Reds 2-1. If your hand is in the air, you can put it down as I sincerely doubt you had that bet. If you honestly did and won a few dolalrs, I demand the slip as proof…

Now then. By the looks of tonight’s pitching matchup, you would logically guess that it favors the Cardinals. No question that Jaime Garcia has the Reds’ number. No question that the Cards have Arroyo’s number.

As they say, that’s why they play the games.

Tonight’s game is also MLB Network’s Showcase game. Bob Costas and John Smoltz will be calling the game and Tom Verducci will provide reports from the field.

Probable Starting Pitchers

Reds – Bronson Arroyo
2013: 2-2, 4.24 ERA, 1.088 WHIP (5 games/starts)
v. STL: 8-14, 4.60 ERA, 1.330 WHIP (34 games, 32 starts)
@ Busch III: 3-7, 5.46 ERA, 1.394 WHIP (15 games/starts)
Last appearance v STL: 4/9/13 (L) – 6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 2 SO

You look at Arroyo’s numbers at Busch II and you shudder. Although it was only 3 games, his numbers were worse in Busch II!

As is usually the case when the Reds send Arroyo to the bump, look for the opposition to load up with lefty bats. For this season, it’s even more so.

2013
RHB: .186/.222/.237, 0 HR in 64 PA
LHB: .306/.315/.528, 4 HR in 73 PA

Career
RHB: .241/.294/.389, 122 HR in 4,603 PA
LHB: .289/.346/.486, 164 HR in 4,370 PA

Just looking at the PAs for this season alone tells you all you need to know.

Arroyo v. Cardinals Batters

Cardinals – Jaime Garcia
2013: 2-1, 2.89 ERA, 1.429 WHIP (5 games/starts)
v. CIN: 8-2, 3.39 ERA, 1.312 WHIP (14 games, 12 starts)
@ Busch III: 20-11, 2.45 ERA, 1.185 WHIP (46 games, 41 starts)
Last appearance v CIN: 4/8/13 (ND) – 6.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 10 SO

Seems like practically every time Garcia takes the mound against the Good Guys, he hangs an “L” on them. Well, at least he didn’t in his last go-around when facing them. In fact, the Reds won that game. And in St. Louis. That 9-run 9th inning game. Less than a month ago.

You would think lefties have difficulties when facing Garcia. Not so. For his career, LHB are .270/.323/.368 with 6 HR in 447 PA when facing him. RHB aren’t as high in BA or OBP, but they do have an advantage in SLG (.264/.319/.378, 31 HR in 1,781 PA). Teams simply don’t put LHB in the lineup when facing him.

When some offer conversation regarding lefty arms against the Reds, the name commonly mentioned is Jay Bruce. As you will see in the table below, Bruce has decent success when facing Garcia. In Garcia’s outing earlier this month, Bruce went 2-3 with an RBI and he didn’t strike out. Prior to 2012, Bruce did struggle when facing him (2-16, 3 SO in 17 PA).

Garcia v. Reds Batters

Starting Lineups

Can’t say I’m shocked by either batting order. The Good Guys bring six RHB and a switch-hitter (Robinson) against Garcia. The Cards have four LHB and a switch-hitter (Beltran) going against Arroyo.

Game time of 8:15 PM ET for first pitch.