Apr 9, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Lee (33) delivers to the plate during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. (Photo Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports)

Phils/Reds Game Preview and Thread: 4/15/13

Here’s hoping tonight is the streakbuster, although it is a tall ask with the Phils having Cliff Lee on the bump. He’s been virtually untouchable so far in 2013. The only runs he’s allowed – earned and unearned – have come on a John Buck homer.

John Buck? Seriously? Seriously…

But I have this to add…

Darn right there’s a chance! When you look at the numbers, you’ll see why I’m even the slightest bit optimistic about tonight’s game.

Weather for tonight’s game courtesy of Local 12′s Tim Hendrick (@dopplertim on Twitter)

Reds: Bronson Arroyo
2013: 1-1, 5.25 ERA, 1.250 WHIP
v. PHI: 2-7, 6.55 ERA, 1.509 WHIP
@ GABP: 44-39, 3.95 ERA, 1.254
Last outing v. PHI: 8/22/12 – Reds 3, Phillies 2 (W)

Arroyo v. Phillies Batters

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SH SF IBB HBP GDP
Jimmy Rollins 22 21 6 1 0 2 5 1 0 .286 .318 .619 0 0 0 0 1
Humberto Quintero 20 20 2 1 0 0 1 0 8 .100 .100 .150 0 0 0 0 1
Chase Utley 20 19 6 0 0 1 4 1 2 .316 .350 .474 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Howard 17 16 5 2 0 1 2 1 9 .313 .353 .625 0 0 0 0 0
Michael Young 17 16 5 2 0 0 3 1 3 .313 .353 .438 0 0 0 0 0
Domonic Brown 6 6 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 .500 .500 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
Kevin Frandsen 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .600 .500 0 0 0 1 0
Cole Hamels 5 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1 0 0 0 0
John Mayberry 5 5 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 .200 .200 .200 0 0 0 0 0
Laynce Nix 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .250 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Roy Halladay 3 3 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
Kyle Kendrick 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 1 0 0 0 0
John Lannan 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Total 127 119 33 9 0 5 22 5 25 .277 .312 .479 2 0 0 1 2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/15/2013.

Apr 9, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; Arroyo (61) throws to a St. Louis Cardinals batter during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. (Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports)

All of the home runs Arroyo has served up to Phillies batters have come from lefty bats or the switch-hitting Rollins. With no Utley in the lineup, you would think he might have a bit easier time, but Galvis is a switch-hitter. He may not have the pop of Utley, but we Reds fans know those lefty bats give Arroyo fits. It may not matter if it’s Utley or Galvis.

The big question will be can Arroyo give a strong effort. He was tossing a no-no in last outing and suddenly lost his effectiveness. Being at GABP, the Reds cannot afford a duplicate effort as the Phillies to pack a bit of a punch even without Utley in the lineup.

Phillies: Cliff Lee
2013: 2-0, 1.08 ERA, 0.600 WHIP
v. CIN: 6-2, 3.91 ERA, 1.346
@ GABP: 3-2, 3.79 ERA, 1.316 WHIP
last outing v. CIN: 8/21/12 – Reds 5, Phillies 4 – ND

Lee v. Reds Batters

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SH SF IBB HBP GDP
Brandon Phillips 27 26 8 3 0 1 4 0 1 .308 .296 .538 0 1 0 0 0
Jay Bruce 17 16 3 0 0 1 2 1 6 .188 .235 .375 0 0 0 0 1
Joey Votto 13 13 5 1 0 1 2 0 3 .385 .385 .692 0 0 0 0 1
Ryan Hanigan 10 8 2 0 0 0 1 2 2 .250 .400 .250 0 0 0 0 0
Cesar Izturis 9 9 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 .222 .222 .556 0 0 0 0 1
Chris Heisey 8 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 .250 .250 .250 0 0 0 0 0
Jack Hannahan 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Homer Bailey 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Zack Cozart 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .333 .250 .333 0 1 0 0 0
Todd Frazier 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 .333 .500 .667 0 0 0 0 0
Manny Parra 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 1 0 0 0 0
Johnny Cueto 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Total 110 103 24 5 0 4 11 4 24 .233 .257 .398 1 2 0 0 3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/15/2013.

Well, looks like BP and Votto know Lee pretty well. In his career, Phillips has a triple slash of .294/.342/.497 against lefty arms. He also homers off lefties at a higher rate (4.3% with 59 HR in 1,367 PA) than righties (2.5% with 93 HR in 3,675 PA). Same for Votto. He owns a career triple slash of .301/.397/.498 when facing lefty pitchers, but he has a lower HR rate facing those lefties (3.5% with 34 HR in 977 PA) that right-handers (4.7% with 100 HR in 2,146 PA). Votto won’t be drawing any walks from Lee who owns a career BB/9 of 2.0 and has yet to issue a free pass in his 2 starts in 2013.

Starting Lineups

Phillies BA OBP SLG HR RBI Reds BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Ben Revere (L) CF .240 .296 .240 0 2 Shin-Soo Choo (L) CF .354 .483 .604 3 7
Freddy Galvis (S) 2B .333 .500 .333 0 0 Zack Cozart (R) SS .159 .174 .386 3 6
Jimmy Rollins (S) SS .261 .320 .435 1 5 Joey Votto (L) 1B .289 .542 .447 1 3
Ryan Howard (L) 1B .277 .314 .426 1 5 Brandon Phillips (R) 2B .327 .346 .653 4 14
Michael Young (R) 3B .357 .426 .524 1 5 Jay Bruce (L) RF .255 .281 .345 0 5
Domonic Brown (L) LF .244 .292 .400 2 6 Todd Frazier (R) 3B .318 .400 .591 3 10
Laynce Nix (L) RF .273 .333 .545 2 4 Chris Heisey (R) LF .167 .205 .286 1 3
Erik Kratz (R) C .184 .179 .316 1 3 Ryan Hanigan (R) C .069 .200 .069 0 2
Cliff Lee (L) P .167 .286 .167 0 1 Bronson Arroyo (R) P .000 .000 .000 0 0

As already mentioned, no Utley for Philly, but the Phils have no issue in giving Galvis playing time and hitting him behind Revere.

Tags: Cincinnati Reds Philadelphia Phillies

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