Cincinnati Reds: Pre-season Prognostications For 2013

Oct 9, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce (32) hits a single in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants in game three of the 2012 NLDS at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Each year on the second day of February, a ground hog in Pennsylvania lifts his tired head out of his hole long enough to let the people know how much winter is left. Keeping that same tradition, I make it a habit to do a little portending of my own, Cincinnati Reds style.

Last season I was pretty much spot on with Ryan Ludwick. My exact words last Spring were, “Ludwick will wind back the clock—just not all the way back to 2008 when he put up monstrous numbers. He will bat .278 with 25 HR and 91 RBI.” Of course his actual numbers were .275 with 26 HR and 80 RBI. Not that bad, eh?

I predicted the Reds would win the NL Central, as they certainly did. I also predicted Johnny Cueto would win 18 and have an ERA of 2.30. His real statistics were 19 wins with a 2.78 ERA. I had my bad ones as well but I choose not to highlight them.

After having looked in my crystal ball, I now present to you, Reds Nation, my pre-season predictions for the 2013 Reds. They will repeat as Central Division champs, win 102 regular season games, and host the playoffs as the #1 seed. There will be only two .300 hitters, no 20-game winners and Jay Bruce will hit 40 homers. Here is the complete prophecies, in table format not quatrain, as my good friend and classmate Nostradamus would.

PLAYER BA HR RBI
Shin-Soo Choo .281 28 63
Brandon Phillips .270 18 77
Joey Votto .327 17 110
Ryan Ludwick .288 31 105
Jay Bruce .277 40 107
Todd Frazier .265 26 73
Zack Cozart .275 21 60
Ryan Hanigan .302 7 45
Chris Heisey .290 13 55
Xavier Paul .261 6 29
Jack Hannahan .238 3 15
Jason Donald .249 2 21
Devin Mesoraco .255 8 30
Cesar Izturis .288 2 27

 

PITCHER W ERA SV K/9
Johnny Cueto 18 2.55 0 7.5
Mat Latos 15 3.21 0 9.1
Homer Bailey 15 3.11 0 8.7
Aroldis Chapman 13 2.47 0 13.5
Bronson Arroyo 14 3.77 0 6.1
Mike Leake 5 3.63 0 6.8
Sam LeCure 3 2.98 0 7.5
Alfredo Simon 4 3.31 0 10.8
Jose Arredondo 5 2.44 1 8.3
Logan Ondrusek 1 3.13 0 7.4
Sean Marshall 4 1.98 4 11.5
Jonathan Broxton 5 2.72 36 12.3

I have left Nick Masset off the list intentionally. I don’t think he will play this season. It’s foggy, but that is what the ball says.

What are your thoughts?

You can follow me on Twitter, or read more on my blog.

Topics: Johnny Cueto, Ryan Ludwick

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  • http://www.facebook.com/tylerduma Tyler Duma

    Not bad Cliff. I don’t believe that Votto will only hit 17 home runs though. I think the power drought last season was simply a result of spotty lineup protection and the ensuing knee injury.

    Other than that the only things I can think of are that Heisey’s predictions are a little ambitious and I think Latos’ ERA will be a bit lower.

    Nice work.

  • http://www.facebook.com/tylerduma Tyler Duma

    Not bad Cliff. I don’t believe that Votto will only hit 17 home runs though. I think the power drought last season was simply a result of spotty lineup protection and the ensuing knee injury.

    Other than that the only things I can think of are that Heisey’s predictions are a little ambitious and I think Latos’ ERA will be a bit lower.

    Nice work.

    • Cliff@RedsToTheBone

      Hope you are right about Votto – have to wait and see. What didn’t you like about Heisey’s projections? Avg to high?

  • beeker

    Love the optimism, Cliff. If you are close, we are in for one very fun year! I hope that Bruce has the kind of year you are calling for. If he is going to break out, this would be the perfect year to do it. Ending with a .277 BA would mean that he was able to avoid those prolonged funks that have plagued him so far. And we all want that!

    • Cliff@RedsToTheBone

      I believe all of those are attainable, everyone.
      Thanks my friend

  • Josh Bresser

    Bruce hitting .277 with 40 homers is really stretching it. As is Choo with 28 homers. If Ondrusek pitches like he did last year, his ERA should be over 5 (considering he walked just about as many hitters as he struck out and had an xFIP of 5.39.) As good as Ryan Ludwick was last year, his homer totals will probably be 20-25.

    Has any pitcher ever had a 13.5 K/9 rate out of the rotation before? And I think the strikeout totals on Broxton and Simon is a bit…meh. Bailey would have to take a giant step forward (AKA- learn how to pitch at GABP) to have an ERA that low. I also don’t think it’s very likely that nobody on the entire staff will have an ERA of 4.

    Pretty good predictions, though.

    • Cliff@RedsToTheBone

      Don’t you think Bruce is capable of those numbers? I am confident Choo can hit that number playing half-time at GABP. I don’t think Ludwick was playing with smoke and mirrors last season. Bailey’s ERA was 3.68 last season in 33 starts, what is unrealistic about dropping it down to .311?
      Thanks for the comments my friend.

      • Josh Bresser

        It just seems like a pitcher who just had his first ever season with an ERA below 4 isn’t going to turn right around and put up a cy young caliber ERA. That’s just me, though, he could do even better than that for all I know.

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