This has nothing to do with how the Reds develop their talent. It is based purely on where players are picked.
Yesterday, the Reds made their draft selections for rounds 2 through 15. The odds for most of them will be long…at best. In looking over the current Reds roster and including those on the disabled list, there are currently only three players that were selected after the 10th round.
Mat Latos was an 11th round selection (#333 overall) of the San Diego Padres back in 2006. Logan Ondrusek was a Reds selection in the 13th round (#392 overall) during the 2005 June draft. Chris Heisey holds the distinction of being the lowest selection on the Reds roster. He was taken in the 17th round (#504 overall) by the Reds in 2006.
But that may not actually be the best measuring stick, if one can be utilized here. With the number of picks over the first two rounds fluctuating due to supplemental picks, the best “guide” might be not so much as the round, but the overall spot where the these guys are selected.
Again, look at the Reds roster. There are only five players selected outside the top 200 on it. Other than Latos, Ondrusek and Heisey, the other two are J.J. Hoover (10th round, #310 overall by the Braves in 2008) and Nick Masset (8th round, #244 overall by the Rangers in 2000). Only two were Reds picks (Ondrusek and Heisey).
Flip it. Being selected within the top 100 is an encouraging sign. There are 14 Reds that have been taken within the top 100: Joey Votto (#44, ’02), Brandon Phillips (#57, ’99), Zack Cozart (#79, ’07), Scott Rolen (#46, ’93), Ryan Ludwick (#60, ’99), Drew Stubbs (#8, ’06), Jay Bruce (#12, ’05), Todd Frazier (#34, ’07), Devin Mesoraco (#15, ’07), Mike Costanzo (#65, ’05), Homer Bailey (#7, ’04), Mike Leake (#8, ’09), Bronson Arroyo (#69, ’95), and Bill Bray (#13, ’04).
Note: Bill Bray was the final first round draft pick of the Montreal Expos. The following season the franchise moved to Washington.
Six of those fourteen were not Reds picks. Phillps and Bray were Expos. Ludwick was an Oakland selection. Rolen and Costanzo were picked by the Phillies. Arroyo was a Pirate draftee. These fourteen comprise exactly half of the players on the Reds roster including those three currently residing on the DL. Take those three away, and 13 of the current 25-man were top 100 selections. Even getting to don an MLB uni is lower than a 50-50 proposition if you’re outside the top 100. As noted, far greater odds are ahead if you’re outside the top 200.
In looking at the Reds selections in rounds 6-15, you have to wonder where the next Ondrusek or Heisey is lurking. Their spots were #202, #232, #262, #292, #322, #352, #382, #412, #442 and #472.
Yes, the odds are overwhelming, but it can happen.