Reds Moving in Positive Direction

Being .5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals might not seem like a positive, but it is. After beginning the season 4-8 (a fact you might be a little tired of hearing at this point, the Reds sit at 24-19 and on a five-game winning streak. After last night’s 2-1 win (due to a walk-off HR off the bat of Todd Frazier), the Reds have produced a few interesting facts about their season to date. And the Reds now sit as the second NL wild card team. Yes, it’s May.

Here’s a few things that have led to the Reds being where they are.

1. The Good Guys are 15-14 against teams with records over .500.

It goes that you beat the teams you’re supposed to beat and maintain against those that win. Cincinnati has done that and a little more. Their record against tams at .500 or worse is 9-5. It’s the other “split” that is impressive.

The Reds have played more games against teams over .500 than any other NL team with 29 games played. The Pirates have as many, but with a slightly different outcome: 11-18. There are only two other teams with a winning record, and neither have played nearly as many games against winning teams than the Reds. The Dodgers (9-3) and the Nationals (10-8) are those two teams. The 15 wins are the third most in all of baseball. The Orioles (20) and the Rays (16) eclipse the Reds in number of wins in playing teams with winning records. And the O’s are the only team with more games played(34). The Rays have the same number and a better record (16-13).

In fact, the last five series have come against teams with winning records (Nationals, Braves, Mets, Yankees, Braves again). In those 13 games, with tonight’s game yet to be played, the Reds are 8-5.

2. Record in last 30 games tied for best in NL at 19-11.

Of course the recent five-game winning streak has helped. In owning that 19-11 record in their last 30, they are tied with the Dodgers for best in the NL during this stretch. Cincy has only made up four games in the standings during these 30. The Cards are 15-15 despite having a swoon over the “past month”.

The only team in all of baseball with a better record in this time frame? The Baltimore Orioles with a 20-10 mark. The Rays match the 19-11 record.

3. Limiting the losing streaks.

The longest losing streak this the Reds have endured this season is three. That was in April and all three losses came at the hands of the Nationals. You may remember it was the first three games in a four-game series in DC. Easy to look back at those three games and say they could have won at least one of those contests. And they had been able to offset the two game losing streaks with two game winning streaks.

Yes, you could look at it as they had been playing just well enough to stay around .500. Some had wondered if the Reds were nothing more than a .500 playing at this rate. Someone, something has shifted the team into another gear. Can’t just point to any one player.

Despite the recent rash of home runs, it hasn’t been the bats either. You know what has been the bigger factor…

4. Starting pitching turning a corner?

If you checked out Tyler Grote’s post from yesterday, a portion of it emphasized the debated topic of a quality start. Prior to last night, the Reds starters had been awarded with four straight quality starts. After last night, tack on another one to bring it to five in a row.

I know the term “quality start” may be a bit of a misnomer to some. Having a game ERA of 4.50 seems a little on the high side. That being said, quality starts lean to being important whether you agree with the whole premise of the quality start or not.

Tyler explains why quality starts can mean something positive.

"Just consider the logistics. The Reds are 17-7 when a pitcher has given them a quality start. The quality start isn’t going to win anyone an MVP. No one is going to win the Cy Young based on the number of quality starts he’s given. But a quality start means your team, at the worst, is within an inning’s reach, and furthermore, ensures the bullpen will not be taxed that evening."

Over this five game winning streak, here’s the breakdown by game:

Homer Bailey (@ NYY): 6.1 IP, 3 R
Johnny Cueto (@ NYY): 7.0 IP, 2 R
Mike Leake (v ATL): 8.0 IP, 1 R
Mat Latos (v ATL): 7.0 IP, 2 R
Bronson Arroyo (v ATL): 6.2 IP, 1 R

The only starting effort that pressed the “terms” of a quality start was Bailey’s start in New Yankee Stadium. In the 35 innings starters have hurled, opponents have scored 9 runs against Reds starters. Yes, only 9, and yes, 35 innings. The bullpen has received a little rest.

The 160 runs allowed is tied for third least in the NL, tied with Pittsburgh. Only the Nats (144) and the Dodgers (157) have permitted fewer.

It doesn’t stop there either. Reds starters have issued the third fewest free passes (72). Walks will haunt and apparently, the Reds aren’t being haunted nearly as much as other teams. Add the SO/BB ratio of 2.65 is fifth best in the NL. The Reds starting staff isn’t exactly a cluster of strikeout pitchers either. We know Latos will fan a guy or two, but there’s not another prime strikeout pitcher on the starting staff.

5. Bullpen

It cannot be expressed enough how important the Reds bullpen has been thus far. Second lowest ERA (2.62), lowest number of runs allowed (38), third most strikeouts (148), best batting average against (.209) and fewest hits allowed (95). Most would point the majority of this success the way of one Aroldis Chapman. The strikeouts and batting average against surely fits his build here. Don’t forget those four wins the Cuban Missile owns. The Reds ‘pen has 11 of the team’s 24 wins.

The bats haven’t been thunderous aside from all the shots in the current Braves series. Only one run has crossed the plate without the benefit of the long ball…and that came last night on an attempted double play. Through the first three games of the Braves series, Reds batters are a woeful 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position.

A win tonight will give the Good Guys the four-game sweep of the Braves.