No Need to Panic for Reds Fans

Here we are at the halfway point in the MLB season, and the Reds find themselves in a position that many fans are not happy with. Cincinnati enters the All-Star break with a 45-47 record which lands them in 4th place in the National League Central trailing the Brewers and Cardinals by 4 games. Judging from the general opinion of Reds fans you would think this team is sitting in last place with no chance of winning the division. That simply is not the case. The fans screaming to “Fire Dusty!” or “Trade Cordero” need to relax.  From the surface it appears the Reds are not in the best shape heading into the second half, but a deeper look into the first half reveals things are not as bad as they seem.

13-21. The Reds have already lost an astonishing 21 1-run games. To put that in perspective, the average record for all teams in 1-run games is 15-14. The Reds have 7 more losses than the average which is more of a sign of bad luck then bad play. On a yearly average, most teams go around 20-20 in 1-run games so the Reds have already done their fair share of losing those type of games. Simply applying the law of averages one has to believe the Reds record in 1-run games will gravitate more towards the .500 mark [which is exactly what they were last year in these type of games, 27-27] rather than continue south. Personally this team has had one of the most frustrating halves of baseball I have watched in years. I couldn’t count on 2 hands the numbers of times I found myself saying, “That was a game the Reds should have won.” There is absolutely no chance the team continues to falter at the end of the games and continues losing 1 run games.

One of the few things going right for the Reds is the mediocrity of the division. Sure they are in 4th place, but the fact they are only sitting 4 games out while being 2 games under .500 is a blessing in disguise. All it will take to get back in the hunt will be ripping off a 7 or 8 game winning streak or win 13 out of 15 at some point. Even though the team has shown no signs of doing that in the first half, all it takes is one hot streak and we will be right back in the hunt. Hopefully the front office realizes the same thing and does not decide to make any drastic changes to the team. Despite what some fans may believe, this team does need to make any huge moves [minus acquiring an Ace-type pitcher, but there aren't any on the market]. The hole at SS seems to have been filled with Cozart. He has gotten a hit in every game since being called up, and has looked solid in the field. Sure it is a small sample but there is no reason to believe he won’t keep it up given his AAA stats.  The pitching should come around, and the hitting is already there it just needs to be more timely. We all know the talent is here, now lets hope they can all get it going at once and take this division again. Let’s not forget, we ARE the reigning division champions –

Martys Call of Jay Bruce HR to Clinch

Tags: Baseball Cincinnati Reds MLB

  • crosby24greene

    Nice article, the Reds are a solid, young team that should definitely come around in the second half. When your opening day starter has had two stints in Triple-A, being only 4 games out in the division at the halfway mark really isn’t all too bad. If Volquez can get back to form, the Reds should make the playoff chase very interesting in the NL Central come September.

  • fansided

    Welcome to FanSided!

  • beeker

    IMO, this team is still struggling to find the right mix of players. The lineup is in constant flux to find an order that produces runs every night and to jump start the guy who has gone cold that week. At times it seems as though spring training never ended.

    It’s time to admit that Renteria and Gomes aren’t working. Leaving Janish in Louisville shows that Jocketty refuses to admit that he made a mistake with Renteria, and perhaps that he is padding the file for when Janish becomes arbitration eligible. (Then again, Cozart is off to a good start in making them both irrelevant.) And then, as much as we might like Gomes, the time has simply come. There is no way Sappelt will run into as many outs on the base paths as called third strike Gomes will take. And if Sappelt’s hitting translates as well as Cozart’s did, he’d be on base twice as much as Gomes.

    Sorry crosby24greene, but another admission we need to make is that waiting for Volquez to get back to form is simply time wasted. I defended the Hamilton/Volquez trade for a long time, but I’ve simply had enough. The guy’s stuff is incredible when he is “on”, but he simply is almost never “on”. I’m shocked when he gets into the 6th inning, and more often than not he has put the offense in a difficult spot. Willis or Wood are safer bets at this point.

    Indeed the Reds are fortunate to be only 4 games back despite being 2 games under .500. They are close, but Jocketty needs to make a couple of moves to get that last cylinder firing so that they can make that run and turn the division upside down. Because it is not going to happen as-is.

  • AlexAppleDFW

    Welcome Derek. @blogredmachine is happy to have you!

  • seahawkstevie

    And we see via Twitter that rumblings with the name Jiminez and the Reds are alive…

  • seahawkstevie

    And there are rumbings via Twitter Jimenez and the Reds. Interesting…

  • Steven Engbloom

    And there is Twitter chatter – Jimenez and the Reds. They might want a 1B.

  • Mark_Brownstein

    I agree with you. I am tired of everyone claiming the Reds need to make a bunch of big moves. No reason to give up the farm for 3 months of Jose Reyes. I think we are fine how we are. We need our starting pitching to stay healthy. If they do I think that we will make a run to the top of the division.