Bruce Battles Bogus Beliefs Built By Broadcasters, Baker

You’ve heard it from Thom Brennaman. You’ve heard it from Dusty Baker. You may have even said it yourself. “Jay Bruce struggles against left-handed pitchers.” It’s the reason Bruce will occasionally sit when the opposing team starts a left-handed pitcher. It’s the reason Baker doesn’t hit Jay Bruce 4^th in the line-up, behind Joey Votto. The problem is, it’s not really true.

The perception that Bruce struggles against lefties is not completely unfounded. As a rookie, Bruce hit only .190, with an abysmal .562 OPS against LHP. The next year wasn’t much better, as Bruce posted a line of .210/.313/.330 against LHP in 2009. After two years of poor performance against same-handed pitchers, the book had been written: Jay Bruce can’t hit lefties. Many had already decided that the 22 year old outfielder would never be more than a platoon player.

Since the start of 2010, Jay Bruce has taken giant strides against lefties. In fact, over the last 2 seasons, Bruce has hit left-handed pitchers better than right-handed pitchers. Here are his 2010 splits:

2010 vs LHP: 179 PA / .277 BA / .352 OBP / .547 SLG / 12 HR
2010 vs RHP: 394 PA / .283 BA / .353 OBP / .469 SLG / 13 HR

The batting averages and on-base percentages were almost identical last year, regardless of handedness. The main difference was his power. Bruce hit nearly the same number of HR against lefties as he did righties in 2010, despite less than half the plate appearances, as reflected by the increased slugging percent against LHP. Perhaps most surprising, Bruce was more effective than Joey Votto against LHP in 2010. Votto’s OPS against lefties (.863) was more than 30 points lower than Bruce (.899).

This year looks like more of the same for the young outfielder who “can’t hit lefties.” Last night, Bruce homered off Cole Hamels, a dominating left-handed pitcher. His 12 HRs for the year are tied for the National League lead. While most of those HRs have come against right-handed pitchers in 2011, he’s still performing quite well against lefties. Here are his 2011 splits:

2011 vs LHP: 37 PA / .303 BA / .361 OBP / .576 SLG / 2 HR
2011 vs RHP: 153 PA / .277 BA / .346 OBP / .526 SLG / 10 HR

While the majority of his HRs are now coming against RHP, Bruce is still hitting for more power (higher SLG) against LHP. The sample isn’t very large this year, but when you combine this with his performance last year, a trend becomes clear – Jay Bruce can hit left-handed pitching.

Jay Bruce struggled in many ways at the ages of 21 and 22. The point is, writing him off as one who struggles against lefties was premature. So, the next time you hear somebody say that Bruce can’t hit lefties, please tell him the truth.

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Tags: baseball, Cincinnati Reds, Jay Bruce, MLB

Alex Apple

I think that Marty Brennaman is all over Jonny Gomes though even if Thom loves him.

Good article Kerry btw

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CurtOU

Told ya Frazier sucked, lifetime .000 batter in the majors, ha, kidding.

At least Phillips is back in the two spot now.

Curt

That's just Thom though, that's how he is, he learned it from his dad. I like Marty and we are lucky to have a legend one our team but he is such a crybaby. When the Reds are losing he makes it very difficult to feel good about anything. And Thom has a little of that in him. Especially when Brantley is in the booth. When Chris is there, Thom is a little more positive. This is why there are so many haters in Reds nation. When they listen to Marty and Brantley whine, they just agree and whine and complain too, makes them feel better about themselves. I personally hate it. Look, in baseball, you are going to fail way more than you succeed, so it's easy to be a hater. I just don't choose the easy way I guess.

djacoustic

Great article!

Kerry Moss

Well said Scott.

You point on Gomes is what infuriates me most. I hear the false claim that Bruce struggles against lefties 10 times more often than I hear the correct claim the Gomes is terrible against RHP.

If any Reds' outfielder is perfect for a platoon, Jonny Gomes is that man.

While there may be this misconception about Bruce, it seems you also have a misconception that Dusty regularly sits him against lefties. Jay has played in every game but 3 so far and one of those he had the flu. When he has gotten a few-and-far-between day off it has been against a lefty, but that's the same as basically every other player.

I actually said that Bruce sits "occasionally" against lefties. Dusty has certainly stuck by Bruce for the most party. My point was, Bruce should get rest every once and a while, but the reason shouldn't be a "tough lefty" on the mound.

My main problem is that Dusty won't hit Bruce 4th. Dusty said in spring training that you can only hit 2 lefties back-to-back if they are both strong hitters against LHP. He cited Utley and Howard as the types of lefties you can hit back-to-back. Thing is, Bruce was better than both Utley and Howards last season vs. LHP.

Scott

To be fair, I don't think the article's thesis was to point a finger at Dusty. Instead, the subtext, to me, reads as one of warning against blindly following perception. The statistics here (plus Bruce's minor league numbers against lefties) show that he doesn't deserve the reputation from *anyone* of not being able to hit lefties.

On this particular team, the same lesson should be kept in mind (especially by the broadcast team) regarding Gomes' value to the team and/or clutchiness, Arroyo's consistency, Heisey starting vs. PH. So often perception doesn't mesh with reality in this game. Nice to see a concise way of measuring this particular case.

Fair enough. As for the announcers, what a good number of fans don't understand is that FSO (like my employer FSS in Atlanta) is a team partner and as such are going to "toe the party line" when it comes to most issues.

This is my first time checking out the blog ... good work.

Thanks JZ!

It's strange. Thom Brennaman seems to LOVE Jonny Gomes. He will make any excuse for Gomes when he's struggling. But Bruce goes 0-for-4 in a game and Thom is ready to cut the guy.

Heard that. I think the reason people still say it is because he looks so bad when he faces some lefties, mainly left handed specialists out of the bullpen. The question is though, who doesn't struggle against some of those guys? Every lefty hitter does. Jay Bruce should never be out of the lineup. Especially when we can't even fill left field with a viable hitting option.

Good point Curt. I almost included that in the post. If you'll remember, Joey Votto has looked pretty miserable against some lefty specialists as well.

For Bruce, it's tough to shake that first impression.

Phils Prolong Reds Phunk « Blog Red Machine | A Cincinnati Reds Blog says:

May 26, 2011 at 5:13 pm

[...] lefties and we all know Joey Votto hit them, I must say I think it’s at least worth a try. As Kerry pointed out, Bruce is starting to show that he can hit lefty pitchers. And he’s starting to hit them with [...]