So I’m kind of minding my own business when I ran across this…
Why did this grab my attention? I found the title a tad intriguing for starters. As I read this piece, I found myself becoming a bit puzzled. Let me elaborate.
I don’t usually see a story and write that I’m in opposition of an opinion. One of the purpose of blogs is just that, opinion. If the opinion is well off that of my opinion, I will post a comment as many do here. If there’s a difference of opnion that could be viewed as minute, I move on. This; however, was a bit different. It struck a peculiar nerve.
First and foremost, I believe that I’m not always wearing my “fan glasses”. I like to believe I offer a fair amount of objectivity. I realize that to some I may not always succeed in that area. Now that a form of a self-admission is in the open, here goes.
The line for those that think the Reds potential starting rotation is overrated is most likely a decent in length. The rotation has received its fair share of attention over the past few months. Maybe too much. Young arms and depth can be misconstrued as being overrated. That’s how I view it anyway.
But the article’s author, Doug Poe, seems extremely bothered by the numbers that Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Travis Wood are posting during this spring. Admittedly, none have been spectacular. But none have been so dreadful that you would think any would have reason to doubt making the team either. Bailey owns the highest ERA at 9.00. Concern? Yes, but getting to wrapped up in stats during spring games will divert your attention from the purpose of spring training.
It’s called spring training for a reason. You work on things. You have the time to try new pitches, new methods. You have the opportunity to tie together that loose ends that may have materialized during the off-season. It’s to get ready for the regular season, not to bowl over fans with their personal numbers.
With Poe being a bit skittish about the likes of Bailey, Leake and Wood, he points to the fact that Edinson Volquez has missed outings as well. On the subject of Volquez, he does elude to the point of the 50-game suspension from last year. What was later mentioned in the comments was that Volquez was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Volquez served his suspension, but it did not affect his rehab. What is did affect was his visa issues which are now cleared.
The Reds have done their due diligence in getting Volquez into simulated games. Not the same as exhibition games, but the staff can gain knowledge from those. Is he maintaining his mechanics? Is he keeping his velocity? Is he struggling with a certain pitch? You can still tweak a thing from simulated games.
Chapman is not ready to be a starter. I would almost go so far as to say that there’s a very slight chance we don’t see Chapman as a starter at all. Depends on how the year goes. Depends on if the Reds can ever have the Cuban stretch his arm and develop the endurance that’s needed to be a starter. No one can question Chapman’s raw talent. What you can question is how the switch from the pen to the role of a starter would affect his velocity. You would not see that 105 again. Well, you could still see the triple digits on the gun, but unless the arms builds, you wouldn’t see it with any regularity. That’s a discussion that’s been had countless times already.
And the mention of his high walk total can be tightened up whether he’s a starter or a reliever. SInce we want to bring stats into play, check out Chapman’s stats as a starter last season in Louisville. They were not overly impressive.
The other solution is Dontrelle Willis? Let me point something out here. This quote, from the piece, is in refernece to both Willis and Chapman, but I’m looking more at the reference to Willis here.
“Cincinnati has a veteran lefty who has proven he can win in the big leagues, and a young lefty who throws frequently over 100 mph.”
Yes, Willis has proven he can win at the major league level…if you’re looking only at his career numbers. But look into those numbers a bit. The last season that Willis posted a winning percentage of .500 or better was in 2006 where he posted a record of 12-12. Since then, he played in three different organizations and been released twice. Once by the pitching poor Arizona Diamondbacks. Here’s his numbers since that 2006 season.
I did say spring training was to work on things. It’s been mentioned many times on other media outlets that Willis and his high leg kick have departed ways. And take nothing away from the spring Willis has put together. It has been impressive to say the least.
All the positives are outweighed by the negatives by what he’s done over the past few years. And I’ve said before, let D-Train take more time to work on his new delivery and the change in mechanics at Triple-A. Putting him with the big club and tasting any form of failure early on will only derail him. Let him taste success in real game situations before taking that next step. He could always be a possible alternative if injuries creep into the staff.
For now, Chapman and Wilils need to keep working on what they have been working on in order to get ready for the season.
In regards to the whole staff. The staff is deep. The staff is young. The staff is not overrated. It’s just garnered maybe a little more attention than it should have.