John Fay recently wrote about the questions surrounding Stubbs.
Is Drew Stubbs a power-hitter, contact-hitter, speedster, high on-base percentage guy, or just a runner?
According to Fay, Dusty Baker has instructed Stubbs to figure out his game. Throughout 2010, fans and analysts wondered why Drew Stubbs would not bunt to get on base. A guy with that tremendous speed ought to be able to bunt for base hits often much like former Red Norris Hopper used to do. Hopper, with only limited at-bats, often would lead the National League in bunt hits.
Other fans wanted Stubbs to swing away as his power seemed to increase as the season went on. Well one thing is for sure: Drew Stubbs has a lot of power.
Dusty Baker said of Stubbs: “I want him to find out who he is. Sometimes it might take a couple of years. When a guy has that much skill and there’s so many things he can do, there’s a period of confusion. Is he a hitter? Is he a slugger? Is he a high on-base percentage guy? Is he a take guy?”
Stubbs himself also suggested that at time he may not even know. There are so many tools to his game that he has at his exposure. It will be crucial in 2011 for Stubbs to stick to whatever plan he creates for his at-bats. When Stubbs gets on base, he can use his legs, but while at the plate, Stubbs ought to be concentrating on simply driving the baseball.
Drew Stubbs posted a war of 3.2 in 2010, and he sported a .330 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Such numbers are solid and would suggest great success for Stubbs at the plate. However, Stubbs unfortunately struck out in 24% of his at-bats.
The strikeout rate is way too high for a hitter of Stubbs ability, and Marty Brennaman criticized Stubbs for being too passive at the plate in 2010. Stubbs has a good batting eye and is not plagued with Juan Francisco or Edwin Encarnacion where they chase anything within 10 feet of home plate. Instead he often watches too many hittable pitches go by.
Over the last month of 2010, Stubbs batted .350 with 7 home runs and 18 RBI. His strong finish has Stubbs feeling very confident going into 2011.
“I just worked on getting stronger, getting in shape,” Stubbs said. “That’s really all you can do in the offseason, then use this here in spring training to kind of refine your approach at the plate and work on defense. It’s kind of hard to simulate on-the-field activities in the offseason.”
Drew Stubbs stands at 6’4 and 200 pounds. His long strides and speed make him one of the better center fielders in the National League. Many Reds fans have predicted that Drew Stubbs could win a Gold Glove in the very near future.
So I could write all day about Stubbs tools and physical ability, but still many in the Reds clubhouse are not quite sure what to expect from Stubbs in 2011.
ESPN predicts: 88 runs, 18 home runs, 69 RBI’s, and 31 SB with a .251 BA. These stats show a regression in all areas but stolen bases. Therefore, it seems as if many in the national media are still not aware of the extreme talent that Drew Stubbs possesses.
His success will be determined by his ability to modify his approach at the plate from where it was in 2010 while still utilizing his unique power and speed combination.
Stubbs stats from 2010 are shown below:
Stubbs really came on in the second half of the season, and he played his best baseball down the stretch.
In 2011, I see Stubbs providing the following numbers:
I believe that Stubbs will be able to avoid the extended slumps that plagued him in 2010. Therefore, strikeouts will be down. Batting average and on-base percentage will be up.
More hits will equal more production for Stubbs in 2011