Reds Drop Series Finale; Lead Down to 7

One extremely bad pitch/decision…and catcher Ryan Hanigan wanted a slider on the outside corner…

Bailey's second mistake in the inning was pitch selection and location. The first was shaking off Hanigan. Source: Yardbarker

And one swing later, Cards left fielder Matt Holliday disposed of a Homer Bailey fastball to provide the Cards with a 4-2 win. The loss slices the NL Central lead to 7 games.

Seven? How in the world can the Reds have a lead like that? Take a closer look at the records. Sure, the Reds were lousy against the Cardinals this year (6-12), but the difference is a three-fold issue.

1. Play well at home. Both the Reds and the Cards do play well at home. The Cardinals have a higher winning percentage at home than the Reds. St. Louis is 43-24 (.642) compared to the Reds 41-27 (.603).

2. Play close to .500 on the road. Cincy is way ahead of the Cards here. The Reds are 38-30 (.559), tied for the best road record in the NL. St. Louis has not fared as well on the road going 28-39 (.418).

3. Win within your division. We’ve already noted the record against each other with the Cards winning 12 of the 18 contests this year, but the Reds have more than taken care of the other divisional opponents outside of St. Louis to the tune of a 34-12 (.739) record. This is where the difference is even greater as the Cards have stumbled against the rest of the NL Central with a 21-24 (.467) record.

The only other team within the NL Central the Cards own a winning record over? The Pittsburgh Pirates at 6-3. And that could change in either direction as the Cards still have 6 games remaining against Pittsburgh. They’re an even .500 (6-6) against the Milwaukee Brewers and currently have losing records to the Cubs (4-5) and Astros (5-10). St. Louis is the only team within the division in which the Reds will post a losing record against in 2010. They will fare no worse than .500 against the Pirates as the Reds currently possess an 8-5 record with 3 games left.